February 5th Snow Map / Storm Discussion 2.0 (Ice Storm)

TWC online forecasts stink lol

algae888 wrote:Cloudy with periods of snow after midnight. Some sleet may mix in. Low around 30F. Winds NE at 10 to 15 mph. Snow accumulations less than one inch......this is the weather channel forecast for me tues. night. then they have me for rain on weds.  what model are they looking at??? I mean its a day away how can forecast that with what the models are showing. how come they are always conservative. what's worse predicting 1" and getting 8" or predicting 8" and getting 1".  to me their both the same.  they ( the weather outlets) never err on the high end guidance.  this stuff just drives me crazy!!

If it was Boston they'd be predicting 12-18 inches and already have 5 meterologist there waiting.

BTW Washington and Baltimore which they hyped for this storm only got rain. Boston almost nothing.

Mets2695 wrote:TWC online forecasts stink lol

mets I agree but its not just TWC. throw in inaccu weather both on line and on air, news one ny and several of the networks. accu weather has me for 2" both on line and on radio. clearly their is a chance I could get an inch or two but their is a equal or greater chance that I could get 6" or more. when they have a scenario like this they always always always forecast the low end. it drives me nuts!!!

I wonder if Upton will add me to the Watch with the afternoon package around 3:45

Mets2695 wrote:I wonder if Upton will add me to the Watch with the afternoon package around 3:45

after this afternoons runs I think they will include almost everyone. actually the two forecasters I like the most is NWS and craig allen. of course that is after frank and you guys on here.  

Calling for a low of 21 tonite This wet snow will be like a rock in the morning

so are we still mainly rain event for cnj or are we cold enough last i knew we were rain but now hearing trends are colder

mt holly updated their map for tomorrows storm. not sure how to post it. they have snow for most except s and c nj coast. from 2" to 8" north plus up to .25" of ice. not sure if there is any rain inland.

There is only one accu weather and it is right here on this forum BABY - the rest blow chow (except the USAwx forum too - those guys are insane over there!!)

I have had over 50+ text, calls and email about the next two storms - jesus - I should start charging a small fee - a dollar a response - we can start a Frank P Snowblower fund??

from NWS.....for me....Tuesday Night A chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet before midnight, then snow. Low around 28. Calm wind becoming northeast 5 to 9 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Wednesday Snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 4pm, then a chance of freezing rain and sleet between 4pm and 5pm, then a chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet after 5pm. High near 30. Northeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

they haven't updated snow map yet. still have todays up. however update liquid map about 1" for entire area mostly frozen.  

from NWS....URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
425 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014

...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ENDING THIS EVENING...
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

CTZ005-006-009-NJZ002-004-103-104-NYZ067>071-040000-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-140204T0000Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.A.0002.140205T0500Z-140205T2300Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-
WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
425 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN NEW HAVEN
CONNECTICUT...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...MAINLY SNOW ALONG WITH SOME SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...WITH STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF
ICE.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* TIMING...SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING. SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...EVENTUALLY MIXING AND CHANGING TO
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY.

this is a little confusing to me..are they saying 4-8 for tuesday night?

..WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...NASSAU COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED
THIS EVENING...WITH STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL RANGING FROM 6 TO 8
INCHES. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SNOW ACCUMULATION
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...ALONG WITH UP TO AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH OF ICE.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* TIMING...SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING. SNOW LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...EVENTUALLY MIXING AND CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
AWAY FROM THE COAST...SNOW REMAINS LONGER BEFORE CHANGING TO
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND ICE ON ROADWAYS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...
AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

UPTON's discussion states they think totals for tomorrow night's storm will vary from 5 inches at immediate coast to 10 inches inland, with up to .25 ICE @ coast and .10 ICE inland. It is going to be a MESSY & dangerous storm, and Wed am commute is gonna be wrecked.

Yes, RJ -- 4-8 + a quarter inch of ice. NOT GOOD.

SoulSingMG wrote:Yes, RJ -- 4-8 + a quarter inch of ice. NOT GOOD.

Oh man everyone said February would be a wild ride...we're in it lol

algae888 wrote:from NWS.....for me....Tuesday Night A chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet before midnight, then snow. Low around 28. Calm wind becoming northeast 5 to 9 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Wednesday Snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 4pm, then a chance of freezing rain and sleet between 4pm and 5pm, then a chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet after 5pm. High near 30. Northeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

they haven't updated snow map yet. still have todays up. however update liquid map about 1"  for entire area mostly frozen.  

Got the exact same forecast.

The weather channel will wait until 11 pm tomorrow to change their forecast just like they did last night. lol they are a joke

i love this. its about time we actually had a winter, cold temps, snow storms one after another, this is what winter is supposed to be.

if i wanted sunny and warm daily, i would move out west.

this is why i love the ny weather, we get it all.

tigernumba1 wrote:The weather channel will wait until 11 pm tomorrow to change their forecast just like they did last night. lol they are a joke

Lol i'm not even kidding not sure how many people watch pix11 last night they were still saying 2-5" for today

RJB8525 wrote:

tigernumba1 wrote:The weather channel will wait until 11 pm tomorrow to change their forecast just like they did last night. lol they are a joke

Lol i'm not even kidding not sure how many people watch pix11 last night they were still saying 2-5" for today

lol. I don't even watch t.v. anymore for the weather. The best forecasts come right here form this forum!

mets here is your answer.... THIS SORT OF SETUP AND SCENARIO CONVEYS MORE OF A SNOW AND ICE
EVENT. IT WILL BE VERY CLOSE FOR SUFFOLK COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND.
MODEL TEMPS ARE NEAR 33-34 DEGREES HERE. WITH AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW
COMING MORE INTO PLAY AND BACKING OF FLOW TO MORE NORTHEAST...LOWER
1-2 DEGREES FROM WHAT MODEL HAS. THIS WILL HAVE LARGE RAMIFICATIONS
IN THEREBY KEEPING FROZEN PRECIP. ANY RAIN WILL BE SEEN IN THE
AFTERNOON AND PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINES.
HOWEVER...SEE ENOUGH EVIDENCE IN THE MODEL FIELDS AND SET UP TO
DIAGNOSE SIGNIFICANT ICE/SNOW COMBINATION. THEREFORE...INCLUDED
SUFFOLK COUNTY IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH.

wsw for entire area. this could be a historic week.  

18z's nam slightly colder gfs slightly warmer. no big changes

Guys I see this as an 8-14" snowstorm for us in NNJ into the LHV from the trends and the model projections. I think the more as you head north and west like cp in the foot range and snow out in EPA. Some icing issues for us here in NNJ but not to a severe extent as .5"

His can all change as we move through tonight of course.

this deep fresh snow pack is really going to help with surface temps. they are probably 3-5* lower than if we had no snow at all. should help to keep most of tomorrows storm frozen.

I gotta say, we give Upton a lot of crap, but I think they are really handling this week with a lot of poise and know-how, considering the factors. I like their write-ups so far in the discussions.

algae888 wrote:this deep fresh snow pack is really going to help with surface temps. they are probably 3-5* lower than if we had no snow at all. should help to keep most of tomorrows storm frozen.

Algae - The Trend!!

how am I looking here for the storm tomorrow