February 5th Snow Map / Storm Discussion 2.0 (Ice Storm)

algae888 wrote:this deep fresh snow pack is really going to help with surface temps. they are probably 3-5* lower than if we had no snow at all. should help to keep most of tomorrows storm frozen.

Algae - The Trend!!

how am I looking here for the storm tomorrow

SoulSingMG wrote:I gotta say, we give Upton a lot of crap, but I think they are really handling this week with a lot of poise and know-how, considering the factors. I like their write-ups so far in the discussions.

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I agree! much more professional. they usually give us all the possibilities with a storm. unlike a lot of the local mets. still conservative though. IMO

ABC7 Eyewitness News is the WORST with conservatism. I love Lee but I cannot take their snowfall maps -- EVERY single storm, they low-ball it to the point of negligence and then up it at the last minute.

Channel 7 just said NYC changing to all rain Wednesday and 37 degrees

the'll change it by 11 if not tomorrow

Does Lee on 7 have new info on Wed 37 and rain or his own theory??

was watching TWC they say too many model differences on what the storm wants to do for the i95 up to boston? Also with the storm over the weekend they just said..2 models GFS wants to bring the 32 degree mark up north and the Euro brings it more south but either way potential for a major snow storm..thats their take on everything lol

Also wanted to add just seen this on my FB feed Eastern PA weather authority put this out

http://epawablogs.com/weather-alert-maps/

Big map with major amounts here

SOS for TWC

Good discussion about the upcoming storm.
http://epawablogs.com/weather-alert-maps/

Here is EPAWA's second call map for the mid week.  They went very aggressive for this event IMO esp for LI.  For those who don't know these guys are very talented meteorologists who come up with these forecasts.  Click the link and scroll down to read there explanation as to why they are going so aggressive.  Its a bit technical, but a good read none the less.  I still have my reservations for the immediate coast; however.

 http://epawablogs.com/weather-alert-maps-2/

I will release an amended map tonight (might not be my final) for this storm, around 11pm.

Will this be a heavy wet snow again ?

elkiehound wrote:Will this be a heavy wet snow again ?

Yes sir - that really light powdery stuff is gone my man - if we want big snows we get the heavier stuff like plaster as they say!!

Frank_Wx wrote:I will release an amended map tonight (might not be my final) for this storm, around 11pm.

I as many others look forward to your call - I may see it in the morning hours though.

Mugs

dolphins222 wrote:i love this. its about time we actually had a winter, cold temps, snow storms one after another, this is what winter is supposed to be.

if i wanted sunny and warm daily, i would move out west.

this is why i love the ny weather, we get it all.

I could not agree with you more !!!

Guys fill me in, I've been gone all day and haven't looked at this at all. Still an ice-rain event for I-95? Gonna take a quick shower then I'll start looking at runs.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Guys fill me in, I've been gone all day and haven't looked at this at all. Still an ice-rain event for I-95? Gonna take a quick shower then I'll start looking at runs.

A lot of people are saying different things. Some say it will stay mainly cold / frozen, others think warm air will win out for the most part besides the very beginning. I'm making another call at 11pm, but definitely am not thinking very high snow amounts as of now.

amugs wrote:Guys I see this as an 8-14" snowstorm for us in NNJ into the LHV from the trends and the model projections. I think the more as you head north and west like cp in the foot range and snow out in EPA. Some icing issues for us here in NNJ but not to a severe extent as .5"

His can all change as we move through tonight of course.  

Mugs if I get a foot with this next storm I think my head will explode. It's a week of SNOWMEGGEDON !!!  

Mt. Holly says 4-6"   

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/stormtotal.php

What, I am completely lost, the GFS and EURO look warm from what I can see, maybe it's because my Accuwx pro shows 1000-500mb thickness? Shortrange also looks far north. They did pretty good with this past storm.

The 18z NAM looks impressive, verbatim CNJ is good thump of snow to a LOT of ice/sleet (not sure which) ending with very light showers/freezing drizzle.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_18z/etaloop.html

This is a big snow north of I 84  8-12 IS A GOOD BET this is not going to be a big snow for the I95,

jimv45 wrote:This is a big snow north of I 84  8-12 IS A GOOD BET this is not going to be a big snow for the I95,

Clearly it won't be, however it's been trending to a nasty ice/sleet event NW of I-95 which I don't like.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:The 18z NAM looks impressive, verbatim CNJ is good thump of snow to a LOT of ice/sleet (not sure which) ending with very light showers/freezing drizzle.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_18z/etaloop.html

this is very interesting look at Uptons,they put Staten Island west and starting north west right above me they have 8-10,overdone or no? NWS has 4-8 locally right now

NWS only has me going up to 32 Wednesday now.

Ouch! Ice forecast from Upton

Everyone keeps talking about Sunday. Is this something we should be getting excited about?