February 5th Snow Map / Storm Discussion 2.0 (Ice Storm)

The above is my 1st call snow map with a final map tomorrow, if necessary. An area of low pressure will cut into western PA Tuesday night and run into a High Pressure system to the north, which will force the storm to transfer its energy to the coast and develop a secondary low. With the initial storm cutting, mid levels in the atmosphere will warm and areas from NYC to Philly will likely see mainly a rain event.
However, areas in the light blue located in NNJ, NYC, west LI, and east-central PA could also see up to .50-.75 of accretion of ice on top of the snow that may fall before switching over to rain. This makes for a very sloppy and dangerous winter storm. The area in purple will also see ice accretion, but the biggest difference with that area is it will see more snow and the changeover to rain will be a very slow process.


You can see where GFS places the ice threat



Areas north of NYC should cash in on some pretty good snowfall as temperatures remain below freezing. Maybe some sleet mixed in at times, but mainly snow.

Those are my initial thoughts and we'll see how this pans out.

Winter storm watches by the NWS have been issued for our area (they are thinking 2-4 inches of snow instead of 1-3 inches)

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...NASSAU COUNTY AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW TODAY. SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 8 INCHES TODAY. 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW...ALONG WITH ICE ACCRETION OF A TENTH TO QUARTER
OF AN INCH OF ICE...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES TODAY.

* TIMING...A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL CHANGE QUICKLY TO ALL
SNOW AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...IN PARTICULAR DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS TODAY. SNOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL TODAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...

AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

I will issue timing and a final snow map tomorrow (if necessary).

Frank there's no GFS map on your post.

How about now?

Frank_Wx wrote:How about now?

Looks like a rough Wednesday morning commute north of 95, ugh. To be honest I just want this one to get out of the way as fast as possible so we can track the one lurking around the weekend.

Yes now it is. Thanks.

Any chance long island sees more snow? Maybe the storm we are currently having can bring some colder air behind it.

I revised to say .50-.75 inches of ice possible, but .25 inches of ice looks almost definite at this point. This could be really bad for interior NJ and eastern PA

Is the morning commute going to be a mess? I went to work today thinking I might need to save the personal day to take off wednesday....thoughts? Think schools will be open?

Frank what about southern wc? Will freezing rain be a serious issue in my area and accumulate as much as NWS says up to or over 0.5, will we be dealing with widespread power outages, this is enough ice on top of heavy wet snowe to tear at least branches down I would think? And it sounds like Wed morning will be downright impossible driving.

sabamfa wrote:Is the morning commute going to be a mess? I went to work today thinking I might need to save the personal day to take off wednesday....thoughts? Think schools will be open?

Saba - school hear ice and they panic - they will be closed my super even gave us the heads up in a personal message since we used all of our emergency school closing days so far. We will be off Wed and if this storm for next week comes to fruition then we could see a good 2-3 days off, seriously.

Mugs

Frank BTW NWS for lower hudson vally IE southern WC, says 5-10 inches of snoe before changover to ice. SO do you think your map may change to move snow totals a bit further south if that trend continues colder?

Mugs, do you think i will get off wednesday or no?

Guys, the dynamics and overall development of this storm is difficult to pinpoint. If cold temperatures hold on just a little longer than how the models have it, it severely alters the way this plays out. Very thread the needle storm. I'll make a final map with updated amounts INCLUDING ICE amounts tomorrow. To the best of my ability at least. For now, major snow north of NYC, mainly light to moderate in and around the city with big ice possible. All you need to know at this point

Mets2695 wrote:Mugs, do you think i will get off wednesday or no?

Alex that is a tough call - if it is snowing and the forecast is for ice for the morning until say 11AM then it is a lock for being off - if the forecast is to go over to rain by say 9AM then you are in with a delay but I do not know how your system out there operates. Will know more tonight and definitely tom - I am on the cold trend for this storm and hoping for you my man!

Hey when you go to Lyndon State (this is where you are going??) you will have your own blog and may put us to shame on this forum one day after school and won't be asking a weather weenie hobbyist like me if school's will be closing in a few years but don't forget us or your roots for that matter!!

Have a good day.

Mugs

Frank_Wx wrote:Guys, the dynamics and overall development of this storm is difficult to pinpoint. If cold temperatures hold on just a little longer than how the models have it, it severely alters the way this plays out. Very thread the needle storm. I'll make a final map with updated amounts INCLUDING ICE amounts tomorrow. To the best of my ability at least. For now, major snow north of NYC, mainly light to moderate in and around the city with big ice possible. All you need to know at this point

Frank this is going to be a tough one to call IMHO and you are doing a great job with this so far. The CAD is never modeled properly and is  the wildcard in this storm the way I see it. Guys on the USA bd or more balls to the walls than me on this one imagine that!!

Mugs - Thanks! I work for a non-profit which helps those with disabilities. Our clients rely on several government transport agencies to get here, so when those close and the schools close, we typically close too. =) Except today. Haha.

And basically rain for suffork county Frank

amugs wrote:

Mets2695 wrote:Mugs, do you think i will get off wednesday or no?

Alex that is a tough call - if it is snowing and the forecast is for ice for the morning until say 11AM then it is a lock for being off - if the forecast is to go over to rain by say 9AM then you are in with a delay but I do not know how your system out there operates. Will know more tonight and definitely tom - I am on the cold trend for this storm and hoping for you my man!

Hey when you go to Lyndon State (this is where you are going??) you will have your own blog and may put us to shame on this forum one day after school and won't be asking a weather weenie hobbyist like me if school's will be closing in a few years but don't forget us or your roots for that matter!!

Have a good day.

Mugs

I will be going there! I'll always be on this forum and won't forget my roots lol!

Here is the RGEM - SNOW and CP are you looking this guys - the hot hand right now in winter storms - Snow you get plastered with Snow and CP you'll get yours to by this with in its range

Mets2695 wrote:

amugs wrote:

Mets2695 wrote:Mugs, do you think i will get off wednesday or no?

Alex that is a tough call - if it is snowing and the forecast is for ice for the morning until say 11AM then it is a lock for being off - if the forecast is to go over to rain by say 9AM then you are in with a delay but I do not know how your system out there operates. Will know more tonight and definitely tom - I am on the cold trend for this storm and hoping for you my man!

Hey when you go to Lyndon State (this is where you are going??) you will have your own blog and may put us to shame on this forum one day after school and won't be asking a weather weenie hobbyist like me if school's will be closing in a few years but don't forget us or your roots for that matter!!

Have a good day.

Mugs

I will be going there! I'll always be on this forum and won't forget my roots lol!

Excellent your parents raised you right - now if you don't I will get in my Altima and take a ride hunt you down with my counterparts Dino and Anthony and give you one to straighten you out - you got it kid! HAHAHAHA.

amugs wrote:Here is the RGEM - SNOW and CP are you looking this guys - the hot hand right now in winter storms - Snow you get plastered with Snow and CP you'll get yours to by this with in its range

That looks a bit bullish, has a decent amount of snow in my neck of the woods which I am not currently expecting.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

amugs wrote:Here is the RGEM - SNOW and CP are you looking this guys - the hot hand right now in winter storms - Snow you get plastered with Snow and CP you'll get yours to by this with in its range

That looks a bit bullish, has a decent amount of snow in my neck of the woods which I am not currently expecting.

It is going with the a colder solution IMO have not look at soundings or temp profiles yet but this would be my guess - it has a bullish bias but it also has been excellent in this range this winter with our storms.

Mugs I'm looking and it sure looks good, but we'll see if it works out. I hope everything falls into place it would be nice to catch up to the rest of you guys.

GFS is coming in VERY COLD!

Coldest run yet.