Re: February 5th Snow Map / Storm Discussion 2.0 (Ice Storm)

by **aiannone** Mon Feb 03, 2014 8:35 pm

Ouch! Ice forecast from Upton
February 5th Snow Map / Storm Discussion 2.0 (Ice Storm) - Page 6 Stormt17

by wilsocks Mon Feb 03, 2014 8:41 pm

Everyone keeps talking about Sunday. Is this something we should be getting excited about?

by **RJB8525** Mon Feb 03, 2014 8:47 pm

Mets2695 wrote:Ouch! Ice forecast from Upton

Wow that .30 spot is scary is that Suffolk? i'm not familiar with the county's in LI

by **bloc1357** Mon Feb 03, 2014 8:49 pm

RJB8525 wrote:
Mets2695 wrote:Ouch! Ice forecast from Upton

Wow that .30 spot is scary is that Suffolk? i'm not familiar with the county's in LI

Yes its suffolk. .30 .23 .25 Whats the difference its all bad!!!

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Feb 03, 2014 8:50 pm

I guess were im at a liitle bit of everything for this one

by **aiannone** Mon Feb 03, 2014 8:58 pm

Yea this is going to be bad for me on LI. 6-8" of snow and .25 in of ice. Ouch!

by BARBIEFLY Mon Feb 03, 2014 9:16 pm

Frank looking forward to your map! You have been spot on since the day we
met! lol we never have but have been following your forecast since channel 7 weather chat.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Feb 03, 2014 9:34 pm

Mets2695 wrote:Yea this is going to be bad for me on LI. 6-8" of snow and .25 in of ice. Ouch!

Bad as in good. You know you love it Alex, especially when 24 hours ago they were predicting almost all liquid for LI. I'm sure we could all do without the 1/4 inch of ice though

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Feb 03, 2014 9:49 pm

wilsocks wrote:Everyone keeps talking about Sunday. Is this something we should be getting excited about?

Yes.

Your avatar scares me.

by **aiannone** Mon Feb 03, 2014 9:50 pm

Thoughts Frank?
February 5th Snow Map / Storm Discussion 2.0 (Ice Storm) - Page 6 Hires_14

by **aiannone** Mon Feb 03, 2014 10:11 pm

FOX 5 News Nick Gregory has 4-7in for western and central LI with .25in of ice on top

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Feb 03, 2014 10:11 pm

I don't understand why it shows two bands of heavy snow like that, with this setup the I-95 corridor does not typically do well. While this is a complex system, the past would tell me to eliminate the southern stripe of purple. That being said, the NAM holds just NW of I-95 under 32 degrees at the surface almost the entire time. Again, not sure I am quite buying this due to the NAM busting cold for today's storm in southern areas that got far less snow then the NAM runs last night and this morning were showing. FWIW here is a good look at it.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_0z/etaloop.html

I am just not convinced on this solution yet, still think for the general I-95 corridor quick thump of snow quickly to ice/sleet and then eventually to rain from SE to NW. Areas in NWNJ in higher elevations and further north will likely hold on to entirely frozen precip. This is not our storm. It's going to be messy around here while upstate cashes in on some nice snowfall.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Feb 03, 2014 10:13 pm

Mets2695 wrote:Thoughts Frank?

That is also taking into account qpf of freezing rain / sleet, not just snow

by **RJB8525** Mon Feb 03, 2014 10:15 pm

.WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...NASSAU COUNTY...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY
AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES FOR METRO NEW
YORK CITY AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...6 TO 10 INCHES FOR THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND ...ALONG WITH UP TO 1/2 INCH OF ICE.

This one i don't care about snow,the ice is starting to worry me here

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Feb 03, 2014 10:15 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
Mets2695 wrote:Thoughts Frank?

That is also taking into account qpf of freezing rain / sleet, not just snow

Oh that would explain it, Frank, check this out, in my area precip is nearly completely freezing rain on the NAM, this would be crippling if it were to verify, actually pulling for rain with this haha, don't want to deal with large amounts of ice, would cause lots of power outages and cause terrible road conditions on untreated roads.

https://2img.net/r/ihimizer/v2/1000x750q90/829/iwlo.png

by **aiannone** Mon Feb 03, 2014 10:16 pm

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

* LOCATIONS...SUFFOLK COUNTY NEW YORK.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...ALONG
WITH AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE.

* TIMING...SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND ICE ON ROADS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

by **aiannone** Mon Feb 03, 2014 10:18 pm

FOX 5 News Nick Gregory has 4-7in for NYC, western and central LI with .25in of ice on top

by **jmanley32** Mon Feb 03, 2014 10:19 pm

Wow me too NJ, looks like about 1/2 inch ice, that would be bad and its even in NYC, remember when we said there hadn't been a ice storm in NYC! I am just north of NYC and we have alot of trees so agreed this could be really bad if NAM verifies and its in that timeframe where it could be getting close to right.

by **aiannone** Mon Feb 03, 2014 10:20 pm

Upton doesn't have me getting above 32 tmw now.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Feb 03, 2014 10:22 pm

18z RGEM, little bit of everything for me.

https://2img.net/r/ihimizer/v2/1000x800q90/203/09x2.png

by **amugs** Mon Feb 03, 2014 10:23 pm

Mets2695 wrote:Upton doesn't have me getting above 32 tmw now.

Snowpack mets - makes a difference!!

by **RJB8525** Mon Feb 03, 2014 10:23 pm

Mets2695 wrote:Upton doesn't have me getting above 32 tmw now.

Right now Upton Tuesday high 35* low 28*,Wednesday high 31 low 21 for me

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Feb 03, 2014 10:30 pm

SREFs still showing a changeover to rain anywhere south of I-78/I-80 depending on the run.

by **aiannone** Mon Feb 03, 2014 10:36 pm

SREF mean is around 5in for me.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Feb 03, 2014 10:48 pm

Updated map posted

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