Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:47 pm

Hour 54, slightly north of 18z

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:50 pm

Initial thoughts on the PAC are so so, 12z GFS was better at this point. It phased two shortwave's together which allowed the EPO block to build overtop. Not seeing that yet this run.

by **Sanchize06** Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:54 pm

Matthew NW of 18z at hr 72, very close to the coast, that ridge is strong, my guess is it doesn't make it up here, but we'll see...

by **aiannone** Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:54 pm

This run is extremely devastating for the east coast of FL. A high end cat 3 or 4 that moves up the coast while strengthening.

by **Sanchize06** Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:55 pm

Not to mention the trough doesn't looks very good either, a little progessive

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:56 pm

Hour 78, Matt is north of 18z but trough doesn't look too hot. WAR about the same as 18z.

by **Sanchize06** Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:02 am

Just off the Georgia coast at hr 96, trough is even more flat then it was at 18z, really no way it captures it

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:03 am

I find it amazing how he's following the coast

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:03 am

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:04 am

PAC is worse than 18z. Would be very surprised if he gets north of NC.

by **jmanley32** Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:07 am

hr 108 landfall...

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:07 am

Landfall. SC

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 38 Gfs_mslp_wind_seus_19

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:09 am

At 108 the PAC is horrific, but since the WAR was able to ease up a bit Matthew is able to track further NW this run. May be trying to catch the trough. Hard to tell.

by **Sanchize06** Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:12 am

Frank_Wx wrote:At 108 the PAC is horrific, but since the WAR was able to ease up a bit Matthew is able to track further NW this run. May be trying to catch the trough. Hard to tell.

Yeah, the fact that it came inland is the only thing giving it a chance at the trough. Going to be close actually, definitely enhanced the rain from the front at the very least

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:12 am

by **Dunnzoo** Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:13 am

Running up the coast to Va border so far, crushes the coast and outerbanks

by **aiannone** Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:13 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 38 14593310

My god lol. Binghamton Bullseye with the rain lol

by **Sanchize06** Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:13 am

Looks like it manages to partially capture it at hr 126, go figure

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:13 am

Looks like a just miss. Very close.

by **jmanley32** Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:14 am

CMC identical almost.

by **aiannone** Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:15 am

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:15 am

Sanchize06 wrote:Looks like it manages to partially capture it at hr 126, go figure

The Atlantic saved us here. Weaker or further east WAR promoted a northerly motion for Matthew. The trough and PAC flow was worse than 18z but we still managed to get him up here.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:16 am

aiannone wrote:

Wow. Well, there ya have it. Another solution haha.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:17 am

by **jmanley32** Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:17 am

Amazing, so many different dynamics at play, one works the other doesn't which will it be if either. Will we even know until its near the carolinas?

by **aiannone** Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:18 am

by **jmanley32** Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:18 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
aiannone wrote:

Wow. Well, there ya have it. Another solution haha.

Thats damn close, gives us a ton of rain, prolly some wind but not like past models have shown.

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