HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Damn +EPO/-PNA. If that's the winter pattern I'm shutting this board down.

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:

rb924119 wrote:It might get louder once people see where its longer range is headed with Matthew........

What? Is the Euro moving West again? With the newfound confidence in it due to its getting the speed and size mostly correct, I guess that is a good sign for a possible skirting of the coast? The roller coaster continues...but I don't want to get off!!

Well, it doesn't allow it out to sea, that's for sure haha It actually lets it get close enough to the mainland US so that it can partially interact with a shortwave trough skirting across the northern States. If you extrapolate the run beyond 240 hours, it might show enough of am interaction to swing it into northern New England or Nova Scotia. That's purely speculation, though. The interesting evolution continues.

Frank_Wx wrote:Damn +EPO/-PNA. If that's the winter pattern I'm shutting this board down.

Lmfao

Did you follow the EURO out to 240? What's your take on it?

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Damn +EPO/-PNA. If that's the winter pattern I'm shutting this board down.

Lmfao

Did you follow the EURO out to 240? What's your take on it?

I actually have my reservations about this winter for us. I don't know if I believe that it's going to be significantly improved over last year. But that's off topic lol

rb924119 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Damn +EPO/-PNA. If that's the winter pattern I'm shutting this board down.

Lmfao

Did you follow the EURO out to 240? What's your take on it?

I actually have my reservations about this winter for us. I don't know if I believe that it's going to be significantly improved over last year. But that's off topic lol

Bite your tongue and stay on topic.

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Damn +EPO/-PNA. If that's the winter pattern I'm shutting this board down.

Lmfao

Did you follow the EURO out to 240? What's your take on it?

I can't do a proper analysis because I don't have the good maps. I'll buy Weatherbell soon. However, it's clear the EURO has the right idea with timing and any impact to us may not be until 2 weeks (10 days). So essentially the upper air pattern October 2nd - October 6th is meaningless. We're talking fantasy range.

Matthew is about to move out of the upwelling area he's caused. So look for him to strengthen some the next couple of days. 

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Damn +EPO/-PNA. If that's the winter pattern I'm shutting this board down.

Lmfao

Did you follow the EURO out to 240? What's your take on it?

I actually have my reservations about this winter for us. I don't know if I believe that it's going to be significantly improved over last year. But that's off topic lol

Bite your tongue and stay on topic.

Hahaha I am. That's all I'll say about it here, I promise.

We are still moving NW.

Frank_Wx wrote:Matthew is about to move out of the upwelling area he's caused. So look for him to strengthen some the next couple of days. 

Unless the secondary convection continues to tag along. I have a hard time believing that that is not having a negative impact on the intensity and size of Matthew. And you're right about it being fantasy land, especially when discussing short waves like that. But I did my own analysis and can confirm that is what it is showing, for the little it's worth lol

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Matthew is about to move out of the up[size=43]welling area he's caused. So look for him to strengthen some the next couple of days. [/size]

Unless the secondary convection continues to tag along. I have a hard time believing that that is not having a negative impact on the intensity and size of Matthew. And you're right about it being fantasy land, especially when discussing short waves like that. But I did my own analysis and can confirm that is what it is showing, for the little it's worth lol

If that's true then   

JMA 

Martha seems to be at least somewhat of a mystery, so this question may not even have an answer at this point, but has she exerted, or could she exert in the future, some sort of force upon Matthew? I mean in terms of his overall speed and/or direction? Could she nudge him along or slow him down on her own, and if so would the modelsbe able to take such a thing into account?

Frank_Wx wrote:JMA 

That's very interesting, not even with Matthew. Look at how different the pattern in the western US is in this versus all of the other guidance. This is amplified with a nice PNA ridge spike; everything else is super zonal with a weak trough undercutting the flow in the Southwest.

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Martha seems to be at least somewhat of a mystery, so this question may not even have an answer at this point, but has she exerted, or could she exert in the future, some sort of force upon Matthew? I mean in terms of his overall speed and/or direction? Could she nudge him along or slow him down on her own, and if so would the modelsbe able to take such a thing into account?

It's not crazy to think that Martha is slowing Matthew down. Maybe that's why EURO has lead the way with timing. So, I think Martha may have already slowed him down and EURO has been the best model to show it. Even the national hurricane center doesn't know what to think of Martha. They called her a mystery this morning.

All 18z hurricane model tracks are offshore for what they're worth.

As are the 12z GEM ensembles.

I had to take a break, saw the Euro, a stall and loop off the carolinas then NE OTS, offshore a bit further east than 00z. If we have 10 days to go (which I still wonder due to the martha thing) then we REALLY have no clue as to what Matthew will do to us or not. I probably will not check in as much (yeah right lol) until we get closer or I see a big uptick in speed. 2pm, Matthew strengthened to 145mph, only 13mph away from being a cat 5 again and he is looking really good. Also appears Martha is becoming more part of matthew. I WONDER if Martha was slowing matthew down but as she gets entrained possibly and absorbed into matthew if he won't speed up.

Does it still matter if Matthew gets past 75W?  Cuz if so he is VERY close to doing so and still on a NW trajectory with a 5mph speed which is a little faster than before.

All of the Euro ensembles stay offshore, some are into FL though. Thats new, I think we just gotta sit bak and wait and not bank on the models so much right now. just my opinion. Too much going on to complicate things for the models.

I believe I have a nearly identical control run to this from 4 years ago....

jmanley32 wrote:All of the Euro ensembles stay offshore, some are into FL though. Thats new, I think we just gotta sit bak and wait and not bank on the models so much right now. just my opinion.  Too much going on to complicate things for the models.

I just saw this as well haha Yeah, still pay attention to them, but take them lightly until there is consistent consensus. As for the other convection, it's certainly possible. I definitely think that it was having some negative impact this whole time; preventing Matthew from reaching maximum potential. That's just me, though.

NHC insists on due north then briefly NNE so he according to them never really makes it past 75W until in bahamas, does this matter that it would be that late?  Or is this something you are no longer considering to be a big factor Frank?

jmanley32 wrote:Does it still matter if Matthew gets past 75W?  Cuz if so he is VERY close to doing so and still on a NW trajectory with a 5mph speed which is a little faster than before.

I think it still does, as that will help determine how much interaction with the trough in the Gulf can potentially occur, and how close to the Southeast coast Matthew can get. I think the changes that we are seeing in the track are from pieces further north, such as the energy undercutting the ridge in the northwestern Atlantic, as well as the trough coming across the US. As Frank said, the further west Matthew can get in the short term will have impacts on the longer term track, but is also assuming the other pieces remained favorable. Now we are seeing solutions that are showing those pieces to not be (i.e. trough is shallow and too progressive with the energy in the North Atlantic preventing the ridge from redeveloping and acting to block an escape out to sea. As we have seen so far, this is obviously still a very changeable situation.

Horrible agreement on Euro 12z ens by Day 4!

I know the main core of matthew isnt huge but the entire outflow of the system takes up the whole damn floater page!

This can screw thing sup royally for all of us looking for a hcane up teh coast - look at that swirl in the Atlantic.If that comes to fruition it will undercut and weaken the WAR giving Matt and escape OTS - just a thought here but I am hoping not I want to see some action.