Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[NjWeatherGuy]

Which model does everyone prefers the most euro or gfs or the nam .I know the nam is kinda weak still little confused

The EURO for the most part is the most accurate when it comes to winter pattern changes and storms. I would rank the Canadian second followed by the GFS. The NAM unless 24 hours or under is for entertainment purposes only.

EURO is not always king. Following it like lemmings has led to some very painful busts. Despite what some say they have fairly similar verification rates in general.

[Frank_Wx]

3 vorts on the 00z GFS by the end of the week. One off our coast, another near Chicago, and the big one in the SW CONUS.

[Frank_Wx]

Up to this point in the GFS run, it's all southern stream driven with a powerful and closed off vort meandering across the southern US. The STJ is very impressive.

[Frank_Wx]

00z CMC is running faster than the GFS, Shows an impressive coastal storm.

[Frank_Wx]

Just a huge all southern stream driven vort that was able to produce it's own track up the coast. Latest GFS

[NjWeatherGuy]

Cripes things are getting interesting for next week.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=240&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=228

[Frank_Wx]

Cripes things are getting interesting for next week.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=240&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=228

Yup, lots of winter weather heading our way! I hope we get a nice snowstorm out of it. I'll rate the setup a 7/10 right now. We need more wave spacing between Storm 1 and Storm 2

[oldtimer]

Frankie still having trouble getting on. What happen for you to change my password? Thanks for all your help.

[sroc4]

I know the scroll up top says 11th-13th for the first significant snowfall, and that may be, but I would not sleep entirely on the 8th-10th time frame. The ensemble mean for both Euro and GFS does not agree with its operational runs respectively. Red flag in my book to monitor this closely esp as we begin the time frame of under 7days out. Remember the perfect hit 7+ days on a model is not where you want to be. Trends are our friend...sometimes.

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[NjWeatherGuy]

6z GFS shows a really weird miller B setup for the 9th storm, certainly strange, rain to mod snow here, new england blizzard.

[sroc4]

6z GFS shows a really weird miller B setup for the 9th storm, certainly strange, rain to mod snow here, new england blizzard.

Still this far out with the MJO forecast changing and with blocking patterns still evolving up north, the operational models will cont to struggle with this system as well as the one between the 11th-13th and beyond. , I think its not until we are 3-5days out IMO, that we really start to see a true consensus start to form.  Pattern is not great for this first system, so still approx. 7days out I'm not holding my breath.  But I am certainly not looking past it so long as the ens means cont to show what they show for now.

[Frank_Wx]

6z GFS shows a really weird miller B setup for the 9th storm, certainly strange, rain to mod snow here, new england blizzard.

Still this far out with the MJO forecast changing and with blocking patterns still evolving up north, the operational models will cont to struggle with this system as well as the one between the 11th-13th and beyond.   , I think its not until we are 3-5days out IMO, that we really start to see a true consensus start to form.  Pattern is not great for this first system, so still approx. 7days out I'm not holding my breath.  But I am certainly not looking past it so long as the ens means cont to show what they show for now.

The biggest reason why I'm not feeling the 1st system is because the trough is pulling away and the cold air over us is old / moderated. We'll see if a strong coastal form which could help pull the cold air back in, but models not supportive of that yet.

The system between the 11th-13th has an Arctic airmass to work with.

[sroc4]

6z GFS shows a really weird miller B setup for the 9th storm, certainly strange, rain to mod snow here, new england blizzard.

Still this far out with the MJO forecast changing and with blocking patterns still evolving up north, the operational models will cont to struggle with this system as well as the one between the 11th-13th and beyond.   , I think its not until we are 3-5days out IMO, that we really start to see a true consensus start to form.  Pattern is not great for this first system, so still approx. 7days out I'm not holding my breath.  But I am certainly not looking past it so long as the ens means cont to show what they show for now.

The biggest reason why I'm not feeling the 1st system is because the trough is pulling away and the cold air over us is old / moderated. We'll see if a strong coastal form which could help pull the cold air back in, but models not supportive of that yet.

The system between the 11th-13th has an Arctic airmass to work with.

Great point.

[Frank_Wx]

There are a lot of new members who signed up the last few daya. I want them to know that every Monday, I release a blog that looks at the current weeks weather and the long range. I refer to them as Mo Mo's (Monday Morning blogs). You can look back at some of the old threads to read the last few. My last one gave a timeline of when I think the pattern from mild to sustained colder weather will change. Here it is if you'd like to read it:

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2015/12/122715-mo-mo-winter-2016-pattern.html

[frank 638]

Great write up frank and like u said by the second to third week of January we will have A pattern change to a more favorable snow and cold 

[RJB8525]

Great write up frank and like u said by the second to third week of January we will have A pattern change to a more favorable snow and cold 

[dsix85]

Morning Frank and Happy New Year- do the warmer Atlantic ocean temperatures this year help feed into these storms that might hit us over the next few weeks? Will it help enhance snowfall rates should precip fall as snow? I know last year we were below normal with ocean temps. Curious how this winter's setup in regards to ocean temps influence the coastal areas.

[Frank_Wx]

Morning Frank and Happy New Year- do the warmer Atlantic ocean temperatures this year help feed into these storms that might hit us over the next few weeks? Will it help enhance snowfall rates should precip fall as snow? I know last year we were below normal with ocean temps. Curious how this winter's setup in regards to ocean temps influence the coastal areas.

The warm Atlantic SSTs will produce stronger than normal Nor'easters off the east coast this year. Warm core cyclones (tropical systems) feed off warm SSTs to get stronger. The same can be said for cold core cyclones. That said, this does not always benefit the immediate coast since winds blowing from the east tend to keep precipitation in the form of rain over snow due to the warm SSTs. Coastal sections have to wait until winds shift from east to N or NW so the Arctic air gets pulled to the coast.

So you get stronger storms with higher snow rates, but there usually is a case of rain to mix to snow for coastal sections. But once it flips to snow, the rates are so high they usually make up for it.

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