Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[Math23x7]

I first began viewing these images several years ago. It seems cliche to say it, but I have never seen anything like this...

[Radz]

Geez, near 70 in spots on Christmas Eve possible ahead of a "cool" front, with 30+ guests, you bet the windows will be open!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Just think last year we went from October 29th to April 15th, 168 consecutive days below 70 in NYC and now we may have 70 for Christmas season, disgusting.

[sroc4]

frank or scott is a pattern prone to extreme warm or cold prone to extremes in general? so that if the pattern flips we end up on the other side of extremes? dec. 1989 one of the coldest on record and jan 1990 one of the warmest on record for one example.

I feel we'll head into another extreme in the 2nd half, yes. A raging El Nino undergoing rapid weakening and a very strong Stratosphere PV warming and possibly being displaced should lead to a drastic and sudden pattern change between the 3rd or 4th week of January.

I too agree Al that an extreme can def recoil towards the opposite side of the extreme. Like a rubber band snapping back if you will. The further it's stretched the harder is snaps back. However; I say that as a broad general statement, because I don't know if my backyard will reap the benefits of the snap back, or if it's going to be seen more on a global extreme and occur over months to years vs weeks to months. Will we be in a strong La Niña by this time next year? And will other SST anomalies flip as well? The PDO region is another region that is due to go neg. it's been positive, and strong at that for several years. This year it has def trended down. As Frank and other s point out we simply are going to have to be patient and see how the decline in the Niño progresses, MJO behaves, and the stratosphere responds to the predicted warming events upcoming. For now the warming events haven't occurred yet. They are merely a prediction forthcoming by the modeling. So IF they occur like modeled, we still won't know the true effects on our weather for a couple of weeks after the fact at least. So for now we simply sit and wait and marvel at the extreme we are experiencing, like it or not. For Mother Nature runs this ship. Momma does what momma does.

[Dunnzoo]

Geez, near 70 in spots on Christmas Eve possible ahead of a "cool" front, with 30+ guests, you bet the windows will be open!

Maybe a pool party and BBQ? My mom was going to put away her deck table and chairs, thinking we may need to keep them out for next week!

[algae888]

The MJO forecast from the euro is still pretty consistent with taking it in to phase 7 at the end of its run even more amplified in the last few days. Other MJO guidance looks similar. If the guidance is correct one would assume that our pattern should change at some point in early January. I know there are other factors involved but we should not be seeing these crazy warm temperatures too much longer.

[algae888]

Why I would assume the MJO forecast is correct is that we are starting to see convection moving north into the northern hemisphere around the Date Line from the observations. I guess the question becomes is the mjo driving our pattern or just an enhancer. Either way I would assume changes in our pattern sometime early January.

[nutleyblizzard]

Why I would assume the MJO forecast is correct is that we are starting to see convection moving north into the northern hemisphere around the Date Line from the observations. I guess the question becomes is the mjo driving our pattern or just an enhancer. Either way I would assume changes in our pattern sometime early January.

Hope your right. I can't take much more of this warm weather. Its only 9 days till christmas, and I haven't seen a single snowflake.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Why I would assume the MJO forecast is correct is that we are starting to see convection moving north into the northern hemisphere around the Date Line from the observations. I guess the question becomes is the mjo driving our pattern or just an enhancer. Either way I would assume changes in our pattern sometime early January.

Hope your right. I can't take much more of this warm weather. Its only 9 days till christmas, and I haven't seen a single snowflake.

I posted this in another thread but it's worth a re-post because it's so ridiculous.

The warmest December ever in NYC was in 2001 when the average temperature was a ridiculously mild for December of 44.1 degrees.

To this point the average temperature this December is 52.0 in NYC.

It's beyond ridiculous.

Dtone also added to this that if the 2 week forecast is fairly accurate this December would rank as one of the top 10 warmest Novembers. And some people wonder why snow nuts are going nuts this year. Think about that, it's insane.

[HectorO]

Records are meant to be broken. We had record lows last winter and will probably have record highs this winter. If this winter busts, then there's always other ones to look forward to. 11/12 was a a crappy winter, one of the least snowiest I've seen in this area and then it was followed by a few really nice ones. As I said on another post, every couple of winters we're due for a bust. We had a decent run.

[algae888]

Both the GFS and Canadian bring a cold front through Christmas eve and while Christmas will not be white it should be cold and definitely not 70 degrees

[amugs]

Records are meant to be broken. We had record lows last winter and will probably have record highs this winter. If this winter busts, then there's always other ones to look forward to. 11/12 was a a crappy winter, one of the least snowiest I've seen in this area and then it was followed by a few really nice ones. As I said on another post, every couple of winters we're due for a bust. We had a decent run.

"winters we're due for a bust", this is not a bust since it ain't over until march 1st (met winter ends but we go longer into March like last year) and I hope you aren't writing off winter like last year at this point. Recall we got smoked from mid Jan through March. Latest long range guidance is showing that the stratosphere ssw event is going on and and that another one will be hitting by new years which will help displace the PV - the AK vortex will retrograde SW of the Aleutians allowing for that Siberian Express to start its decent on the eastern seaboard, A NEG Trough builds in the Se and the heights will rise in BC Canada due to this AL low retrograding. I would not call bust at this juncture - yes is it abnormally or historically warm no doubt but to call winter a bust at this stage is not prudent IMHO. I am holding steadfast and will be 1st mate to SROC on the "SS Winter Comith". We have no snow nor cold but that will change abruptly next month.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Both the GFS and Canadian bring a cold front through Christmas eve and while Christmas will not be white it should be cold and definitely not 70 degrees

Please define cold Al. What you mean is it will only be 15 degrees above normal on Christmas Day instead of 30?

[amugs]

This from John know as earthlight a phenomenal young met like outs truly Frank and Isotherm, he reassures us all about what is to come

https://twitter.com/USAwx/status/677168367971794945

[amugs]

And here you go from what I stated above and then posted the link to earthlight post on the usa board. Look at this beauty she' s coming and if u don't watch out something going to be gaining on ya real fast come the new year

[algae888]

Both the GFS and Canadian bring a cold front through Christmas eve and while Christmas will not be white it should be cold and definitely not 70 degrees

Please define cold Al. What you mean is it will only be 15 degrees above normal on Christmas Day instead of 30?

Well when I say cold CP more like normal temperatures in the low to mid forties however today euro shows an absolute torch for Christmas Eve, Christmas and the day after. It is notoriously slower than the GFS with bringing fronts through and digging shortwaves in the southwest. still 9 days out we'll see what happens

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Both the GFS and Canadian bring a cold front through Christmas eve and while Christmas will not be white it should be cold and definitely not 70 degrees

Please define cold Al. What you mean is it will only be 15 degrees above normal on Christmas Day instead of 30?

Well when I say cold CP more like normal temperatures in the low to mid forties however today euro shows an absolute torch for Christmas Eve, Christmas and the day after. It is notoriously slower than the GFS with bringing fronts through and digging shortwaves in the southwest. still 9 days out we'll see what happens

The average high in NYC on Christmas day is 40 the average low is 29. They have not had a day anywhere close to that yet since fall began.

[Abba701]

What does the euro show??

[Abba701]

Don't tell me 70 degrees

[Frank_Wx]

From what I'm reading today...the long range is beginning to look very encouraging. I can't verify this yet. Maybe later tonight I can

[devsman]

Lee Goldberg brought up how social media is already talking about the New years day storm. He said he doesn't buy it based on this pattern we have.

[amugs]

Euro saying PV dislodging

today


Dec 26th

[skinsfan1177]

Euro saying PV  dislodging

today


Dec 26th

This is a positive

[Frank_Wx]

You can see its getting squeezed from both sides. That means we're heading into a wave 2 event. Think of it as squeezing a bottle of toothpaste. Vorticity within the center gets elongated and PV center gets stretched out. That said, it's still over the North Pole. Still more work to be done.

[skinsfan1177]

You can see its getting squeezed from both sides. That means we're heading into a wave 2 event. Think of it as squeezing a bottle of toothpaste. Vorticity within the center gets elongated and PV center gets stretched out. That said, it's still over the North Pole. Still more work to be done.

So Frank how do we get the PV to move south and give us the cold that we need and in that Dec.26 picture it still up in Canada.

[Frank_Wx]

You can see its getting squeezed from both sides. That means we're heading into a wave 2 event. Think of it as squeezing a bottle of toothpaste. Vorticity within the center gets elongated and PV center gets stretched out. That said, it's still over the North Pole. Still more work to be done.

So Frank how do we get the PV to move south and give us the cold that we need and in that Dec.26 picture it still up in Canada.

.

The sudden Stratospheric Warming can not be confined to just 1 or 10 hPa (upper Stratosphere). It needs to downwell into the mid and lower levels. This would displace the PV out of the Pole and into the lower latitudes of North America

[chief7]

This should brighten up everyone's day puthttp://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.

[Sponsored content]