Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[chief7]

That's great news Mugs bring it on brother!!!!!!!!!!

[NjWeatherGuy]

Holy mother of 0z GFS, Happy New Year 2016!

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=276&image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_276_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160101+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

[Snow88]

0z EPS still likes the Jan 9-10 event. Has a cluster of lows near the benchmark with cold enough 850s.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Holy mother of 0z GFS, Happy New Year 2016!

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=276&image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_276_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160101+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

12 days away.

What a beautiful setup. A HV special, but most share in the fun.

[skinsfan1177]

Holy mother of 0z GFS, Happy New Year 2016!

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=276&image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_276_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160101+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

12 days away.

What a beautiful setup. A HV special, but most share in the fun.

Hoping for coastal blizzard I think this year will deliver and once again I will be over seasonal avg. South and east my friend

[Frank_Wx]

The Day 11 to 13 threat has some credibility if what 500mb guidance is saying comes true.

00z EPS:



6z GEFS::



The bias' of each model come into play with both graphics. Notcce the EPS is much more amplified with the mid-level troughs compared to the GEFS. On the other end, the GEFS are looking progressive / elongated with the troughs. Specifically, the GEFS show a trough axis over the Great Lakes while the EPS dig it into the southeast. Lastly, placement of the PNA/EPO ridge differs with both ensemble suites. The EPS has the core of the positive heights over western Canada with a slight SW to NE orientation. The GEFS has the ridge over Alaska (further N&W) with more of a N-S orientation.

IMO, with a ridge to that degree of amplification, it should yield a trough similar to what the EPS shows. I think the GEFS bias is more at play here since it's trying to keep the axis of the trough further north and keep the flow across the U.S. progressive, hence the lower heights entering the west.

There's some blocking to work with as well. Higher heights shown near the Davis Strait should also lead to an eastern US trough axis similar to where the EPS has it. A deep trough over the NW Atlantic could act as a roadblock for energy to escape out to sea. Timing plays a critical role with how the upper level vort energies interact. Plenty of time to watch this one. Just gotta see where the trends take us.

[hyde345]

Just looked at the 12Z GFS. It is really struggling in the long range. What the hell is it doing after 252 hrs?

[docstox12]

Holy mother of 0z GFS, Happy New Year 2016!

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=276&image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_276_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160101+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

12 days away.

What a beautiful setup. A HV special, but most share in the fun.

Hoping for coastal blizzard I think this year will deliver and once again I will be over seasonal avg. South and east my friend

LOL, don't even joke about that Skins.If you get 17 inches and the "extremely sharp" cutoff is the Bergen County-Orange County line and we get 1.75 inch in the HV, there may be a suicide watch issued for our good buddy CP,LOL!

[Frank_Wx]

Just looked at the 12Z GFS. It is really struggling in the long range. What the hell is it doing after 252 hrs?

The GFS is struggling with the pattern. The signals are there which is all that matters. Lean on the EURO and CMC. I'll post their maps when they come out.

[Frank_Wx]

The 12Z CMC nicely depicts the split flow look with a bowling ball southern vort. Since it's closed off, heights rise along the EC and a phase with the Northern energy happens too soon. Storm goes up the Apps.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Holy mother of 0z GFS, Happy New Year 2016!

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=276&image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_276_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160101+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

12 days away.

What a beautiful setup. A HV special, but most share in the fun.

Hoping for coastal blizzard I think this year will deliver and once again I will be over seasonal avg. South and east my friend

LOL, don't even joke about that Skins.If you get 17 inches and the "extremely sharp" cutoff is the Bergen County-Orange County line and we get 1.75 inch in the HV, there may be a suicide watch issued for our good buddy CP,LOL!

You know me Doc, I'm almost there now after this December from Hell.

You coined it Hellnino, thank God it's finally loosening it's ugly grip.

[Abba701]

That would mean warm in the east? What's with late January to
February? Still cold?

[Snowfall]

No major storms until the half point of January maybe a snow shower but nothing more. I do see at least two 12 plus storms this season and that hot Atlantic water we will be thanking

[Frank_Wx]

No major storms until the half point of January maybe a snow shower but nothing more. I do see at least two 12 plus storms this season and that hot Atlantic water we will be thanking  

We'll see, the 10th-12th period needs to be watched. The EURO literally has off the charts type of blocking

[Frank_Wx]

The 12z euro would have shown a nice snowstorm for the EC if it went out further. By the way, the new EURO upgrade will also go out to 384 hours. Just like the GFS.

[billg315]

Looks like the latest GFS wants to push the Jan. 11-12 storm off the southeast a bit. Not that subtle differences matter this far out. The Jan. 9 event still showing up although that could lean more toward rain or mix.

[RJB8525]

No major storms until the half point of January maybe a snow shower but nothing more. I do see at least two 12 plus storms this season and that hot Atlantic water we will be thanking  

bold statement lol

3 words

ya gotta believe!

[Snowfall]

Oh I believe and I learned a lot from you guys since accu chat I'm a snow luster after 14 days we get going full steam

[Frank_Wx]

Check out @nj_strong_wx's Tweet: https://twitter.com/nj_strong_wx/status/683023561808830465?s=09

[nutleyblizzard]

No major storms until the half point of January maybe a snow shower but nothing more. I do see at least two 12 plus storms this season and that hot Atlantic water we will be thanking  

Welcome to the board Snowfall. I agree with you the likelihood of multiple major snowstorm events occurring. What the latest EURO is showing is purely spellbinding. When you have ample cold air soon to be available with blocking and the gulf open for business, that makes for explosive potential. I firmly believe its not a matter of if anymore, its when.

[rb924119]

I've been quiet.....for a while I know lol That said, anybody else check out the latest MJO forecasts??? If so, do you see what might be signals of a possible consensus of it getting stuck?? Latest stratospheric forecasts and ensemble 500 hPa anomalies still look fantastic to me in the super-long range, because I think the 500 hPa anomalies may be getting washed out a bit with a typical "taper to climatology". Time will tell.

[algae888]

WOW!!!!
jan 9th


jan11th

[nutleyblizzard]

Check out @nj_strong_wx's Tweet: https://twitter.com/nj_strong_wx/status/683023561808830465?s=09

That 500mb map is weather porn Frank. Let's see if it delivers the goods. I think it will.

[algae888]

both storms jan 9th and 11th. some beasts in there...

[algae888]

really trying to keep expectations down but the end of eps run shows a -nao/epo ridge/50/50 low and plenty of cold air. all we need is for the pac jet to keep sending s/w through the flow and we are in business.

[Frank_Wx]

Wow, euro ensembles are fantastic. 

[Frank_Wx]

The EPS are more impressive with the Davis Strait block than last night's run. What an awesome trend this is turning out to be  

[Sponsored content]