Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[Frank_Wx]

Wow, euro ensembles are fantastic. 

[Frank_Wx]

The EPS are more impressive with the Davis Strait block than last night's run. What an awesome trend this is turning out to be  

[snowlover 12345]

oh baby, lets hope this thing goes beast mode on us

[amugs]

JAN 9-10 going from rain to sleet to snow (DEC 2002 ?) as the LP that reforms of the coast and moves NE. Sign of things to come - it will trend colder - do not underestimate teh -EPO and Cold AIr Dam going forward.

[rb924119]

JAN 9-10 going from rain to sleet to snow (DEC 2002 ?) as the LP that reforms of the coast and moves NE. Sign of things to come - it will trend colder - do not underestimate teh -EPO and Cold AIr Dam going forward.

Uhhh......

[amugs]

MJO is in a great spot fir us, EPS barking, Control really barking - diffrence is a Labrador to German Shepard. Possibility of significant east coast storms notice the plural and historic cold on the backside from jan 11th until 20ith. Pattern 180 flip.
If the aluetians vortex retrograde a tad more sw then I think the pna and epo rage to -3 SD and with rhe ao tanking we are going to be ricking, get that NAO to go Neg and bazinga baby.
Siberia and 155w to dateline thank you. LOTS of potential. Could very well see a MECS but the weenies need patience it will come.remember my discussion and I have stated ad nasueam that the models will lag the atmosphere and that things will show up once they catch on to the pattern

[amugs]

Rb,

That ain't the big doggy!! 18z GFS ain't going to show it and.................it shows it off the coast - does not meet the EURO or EPS or CMC or GEFS - stupid 18z!!

[amugs]

Rb,

That ain't the big doggy!! 18z GFS ain't going to show it and.................it shows it off the coast - does not meet the EURO or EPS or CMC or GEFS - stupid 18z!!

[rb924119]

Rb,

That ain't the big doggy!! 18z GFS ain't going to show it and.................it shows it off the coast - does not meet the EURO or EPS or CMC or GEFS - stupid 18z!!

No I know ahaha Appetizer to the main event, perhaps?

[frank 638]

Looks like mixing issue at the coast

[amugs]

Rb,

That ain't the big doggy!! 18z GFS ain't going to show it and.................it shows it off the coast - does not meet the EURO or EPS or CMC or GEFS - stupid 18z!!

No I know ahaha Appetizer to the main event, perhaps?

I think both are appys my man - I think we get the real God/Roidzilla deal between Jan 24thish and Feb 17thish - I have called a PD3 2-14-17

[frank 638]

Which model does everyone prefers the most euro or gfs or the nam .I know the nam is kinda weak still little confused

[nutleyblizzard]

Which model does everyone prefers the most euro or gfs or the nam .I know the nam is kinda weak still little confused

The EURO for the most part is the most accurate when it comes to winter pattern changes and storms. I would rank the Canadian second followed by the GFS. The NAM unless 24 hours or under is for entertainment purposes only.

[frank 638]

That's what I thought I knew the nam is useless and the euro is better thank you 

[Math23x7]

That's what I thought I knew the nam is useless and the euro is better thank you 

Had the EURO run from the night before "Juno" (aka the January 26-27th, 2015 snowstorm) verified, the Queens/Nassau county border region (where I am) would have gotten 30-36 inches of snow.  I saw 13 inches.

[rb924119]

Which model does everyone prefers the most euro or gfs or the nam .I know the nam is kinda weak still little confused

Honestly man, they ALL have their pros and cons. I'd certainly agree that generally the EURO is the best, but you can't ever take a solution verbatim (or discard one, for that matter) because it's from a particular model. Gotta keep an open mind and try to spot the differences in each, see what makes the most sense, and take it from there. I can certainly say this for myself, and I'd be willing to bet most if not all of the forecasters on here, often use blends from many different models. For example, the GFS' pattern progression, but the EURO's intensity, the NAM's temperature profile, the RGEM's precip field, etc. etc. because of what we know about particular setups, how they have played out in the past, experience and friendly discussion.

[rb924119]

Rb,

That ain't the big doggy!! 18z GFS ain't going to show it and.................it shows it off the coast - does not meet the EURO or EPS or CMC or GEFS - stupid 18z!!

No I know ahaha Appetizer to the main event, perhaps?

I think both are appys my man - I think  we get the real God/Roidzilla deal between Jan 24thish and Feb 17thish - I have called a PD3 2-14-17

I would cry, not tears of anguish, but of pure joy lmao You imagine a region-wide Juno???? Another 1888....OMGGG!!!! None of us would probably ever see it, though; our hearts would probably give out the second that the first flakes fell ahahaha I sure as heck know mine would lmfao

[mancave25]

When do we see another Jan. 1996 blizzard. I'll never forget it.

[rb924119]

18z GFS Ensemble for the 9th......interesting. Very interesting.

[Frank_Wx]

Which model does everyone prefers the most euro or gfs or the nam .I know the nam is kinda weak still little confused

Honestly man, they ALL have their pros and cons. I'd certainly agree that generally the EURO is the best, but you can't ever take a solution verbatim (or discard one, for that matter) because it's from a particular model. Gotta keep an open mind and try to spot the differences in each, see what makes the most sense, and take it from there. I can certainly say this for myself, and I'd be willing to bet most if not all of the forecasters on here, often use blends from many different models. For example, the GFS' pattern progression, but the EURO's intensity, the NAM's temperature profile, the RGEM's precip field, etc. etc. because of what we know about particular setups, how they have played out in the past, experience and friendly discussion.

Definitely agree with this.

I hate the NAM all together though. I think last year I banned the word. Anytime someone typed "NAM" I programmed the forum to turn it into "Not A Model"

[amugs]

18z GFS Ensemble for the 9th......interesting. Very interesting.

!2 hours off from my prediction I told skins a few days ago that we woudl see o our first snowfall on Jan 8th ! BUTY CYA here I gave him a range of the 8-12th.

[nutleyblizzard]

That's what I thought I knew the nam is useless and the euro is better thank you 

Had the EURO run from the night before "Juno" (aka the January 26-27th, 2015 snowstorm) verified, the Queens/Nassau county border region (where I am) would have gotten 30-36 inches of snow.  I saw 13 inches.

Normally the EURO will lock into a storm inside 3 days. That was a rare yet very painful bust by that model.

[frank 638]

i will never forget how busy the supermarket were when we had winter storm juno it look like xmas again .i was excited to see all that snow almost 2 or more ft and i was hoping to see thunder snow like we had in dec blizzard of 09.when i woke up the next day at 10 am i was pissed off only to see 1 ft of snow .what a bust for nj nyc and parts of longisland .i hope we dont see that anytime soon

[amugs]

"A stratospheric warming event (which the European and Canadian series believe will last a while), an impressive surge of energy from the Madden-Julian Oscillation into both the polar westerlies and subtropical jet stream, and the formation of a massive -EPO/+PNA/-AO/-NAO blocking signature will help drop the cold air into very low latitudes. At the same time, the active storm track will create problems in the way of both liquid and frozen precipitation in a belt from the lower/middle Great Plains through the Old South and along the East Coast."-Larry Cosgrove

[Guest]

I think Nutley 3 posts up used the word bust!!!!!!

[NjWeatherGuy]

Which model does everyone prefers the most euro or gfs or the nam .I know the nam is kinda weak still little confused

The EURO for the most part is the most accurate when it comes to winter pattern changes and storms. I would rank the Canadian second followed by the GFS. The NAM unless 24 hours or under is for entertainment purposes only.

EURO is not always king. Following it like lemmings has led to some very painful busts. Despite what some say they have fairly similar verification rates in general.

[Frank_Wx]

3 vorts on the 00z GFS by the end of the week. One off our coast, another near Chicago, and the big one in the SW CONUS.

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