1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
+24
Quietace
lglickman1
skinsfan1177
jimv45
CPcantmeasuresnow
sroc4
jmanley32
Artechmetals
Grselig
Analog96
SNOW MAN
docstox12
algae888
Yschiff
aiannone
Math23x7
rb924119
NjWeatherGuy
oldtimer
Biggin23
mancave25
amugs
2004blackwrx
Frank_Wx
28 posters
Page 4 of 7 • 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
SNOW MAN wrote:Not yet.
weird. I see the map. I can't complain about 4-7 but would love to hit that 7 mark
Thanks RB
Grselig- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1408
Join date : 2013-03-04
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
Better Snow Man?
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6889
Join date : 2013-02-06
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
Pro mets only seeing 1 to 3 , are they not seeing something you are RB ? I really love your analysis . Seems like they are seeing more mixing and why ?
Artechmetals- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 571
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2014-01-01
Age : 57
Location : Wayne , NJ
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
WOW at the 12z NAM!!!!
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_030_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_033_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_036_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_039_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_042_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_045_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_048_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_054_precip_ptot.gif
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_030_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_033_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_036_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_039_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_042_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_045_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_048_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_054_precip_ptot.gif
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6889
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
rb924119 wrote:
Better Snow Man?
No I'm still not seeing it and believe me I'm dying to see what snow fall amounts you have for my area. lol.
SNOW MAN- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1361
Reputation : 25
Join date : 2013-01-13
Age : 64
Location : Marshalls Creek Pa.
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
Coming up on my phone but not my computer. Besides having issues loading or refreshing threads today's anyone else?
Map looks good rb and you will verify
Map looks good rb and you will verify
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15093
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
NAM is beautiful sorry Frank
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15093
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
SNOW MAN wrote:rb924119 wrote:
Better Snow Man?
No I'm still not seeing it and believe me I'm dying to see what snow fall amounts you have for my area. lol.
Well then your computer's just dumb lmfao jk You're in the 4-7" isolated 8" amounts, with mixing likely for you. After the NAM, though; yeeshhhhh I may need to up the totals if the rest of the models jump on board lmao
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6889
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
amugs wrote:Coming up on my phone but not my computer. Besides having issues loading or refreshing threads today's anyone else?
Map looks good rb and you will verify
Thanks Mugs!! We'll see how it goes. If needed, I'll update again tonight or early tomorrow morning.
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6889
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
Artechmetals wrote:Pro mets only seeing 1 to 3 , are they not seeing something you are RB ? I really love your analysis . Seems like they are seeing more mixing and why ?
Thanks!! Uh, I don't know exactly why, but they and myself are not all that far off from each other. You're just inside the 4-7" line on my map, so it's close. My thoughts are that the initial surge should easily be strong enough produce inch per hour snowfall rates at times for at least a few hours, probably closer to four or five before it starts to change over. Add that to the fact that the ground is significantly below freezing and the snow will be at a higher (i.e. 12 or 14:1 ratio at the start, decreasing to 10 or 8:1 right before the changeover) and I think an inch or two either side of four inches seems like a safe bet. That's why I have that red box; because even the sections in the lighter blue that are within that red box are still in the running for the 4-7" category. I just wasn't confident enough to include them just yet. My expectations would be to see the Weather Service offices bump amounts slightly higher with future packages, especially if other models today trend like the 12z NAM just did.
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6889
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
Thanks RB !! One other question will wsw or wwa adviseries go up?
Artechmetals- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 571
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2014-01-01
Age : 57
Location : Wayne , NJ
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
rgemmmmmm!!!!
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
12hrs of snow followed by a few hrs of rain mix nyc, doc rb cp never changes over.wow!!!!
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
Artechmetals wrote:Thanks RB !! One other question will wsw or wwa adviseries go up?
I would expect advisories only, and they probably won't be up until after the 4pm update today or overnight.
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6889
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
OMGGGGGG 12z NAM clown map:
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=DIX
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=DIX
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6889
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
And by the looks of it the REGM may be fairly close to this as well....Idk though; I don't have it yet.
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6889
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
Nice rgem holding strong here looks great. Colder it seems
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15093
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
Wow lucky all you inlanders still looking like only a few inchs here at most, not seeing much excitement here, maybe I am wrong but its a close call on all those models.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20513
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
rb that's a horrible map for li and c nj. do not think that is right. most areas are going to get 4" from this stormrb924119 wrote:OMGGGGGG 12z NAM clown map:
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=DIX
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
I like the latest RGEM, I will take 5-6 in a heartbeat, which is what wxbell shows, not sure if that's all precip types though.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20513
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15093
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
Right now I am envisioning my final snow map to orient the 4-8" swath over southern NY - eastern PA - NW NJ. Start time looks the same to me. I do not see any models bringing precip. in during the morning tomorrow. Looks like after 12pm
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
algae888 wrote:rb that's a horrible map for li and c nj. do not think that is right. most areas are going to get 4" from this stormrb924119 wrote:OMGGGGGG 12z NAM clown map:
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=DIX
I agree. I think it's overdone on the higher end and underdone on the lower end by equal amounts.
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6889
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
Here's the 12z RGEM snow total map based on 10:1
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015022012/rgem_asnow_neus_16.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015022012/rgem_asnow_neus_16.png
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6889
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
rb924119 wrote:algae888 wrote:rb that's a horrible map for li and c nj. do not think that is right. most areas are going to get 4" from this stormrb924119 wrote:OMGGGGGG 12z NAM clown map:
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=DIX
I agree. I think it's overdone on the higher end and underdone on the lower end by equal amounts.
Hence why I called it a clown map lmao
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6889
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
BTW you guys are all doing an unbelievable job with this storm. I have not been able to look at this in the detail I want so I am going to keep it quite for now. There is no doubt the colder trend is in play here.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8331
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
rgem snow map
niceeee!!!!
niceeee!!!!
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Page 4 of 7 • 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
|
|