1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm

BTW you guys are all doing an unbelievable job with this storm. I have not been able to look at this in the detail I want so I am going to keep it quite for now. There is no doubt the colder trend is in play here.

rgem snow map

niceeee!!!!

algae888 wrote:rgem snow map

niceeee!!!!

I like it, if it happens.

These storms have certainly been interesting if nothing else.

rgem snow map fits my thinking on this storm. 4" for every one on a line that goes from philly east n/e to c nj coast and cuts through a good prtion of li. 6+" from 287 n and w.

GFS seems to be caving to EURO

12z GFS trying to one-up the EURO, perhaps?

Frank, this has to stop. Honestly. This is like what; the fifth time now? lmfao

12z GFS snow map based on 10:1

http://www.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/12/snosums/0048/GFS_12_opUS_SF_0048.png

I've gotta go; I have work that needs to get done outside today, but keep the chatter and analysis going. Fun times ahead, and I'll check back in later this evening. If I have to adjust my map, I'll do so then. Enjoy!!!!

looks good north and west 4-8!

Frank_Wx wrote:GFS seems to be caving to EURO

Frank haven't been following the models but is that good or bad

with precip starting sooner with each model run cold with not have much time to moderate so good ratios to start and pwats approaching 1" sat evening and warm surge in bl look for snow to be flying fast and furious.

I do not buy gfs surface temps at all. as a matter of fact I do not buy most models surface temps. there is no way we warm above frz 1am to 7am sunday with this snow pack and several fresh inches of snow otg. no way that is happening no matter what the models show!

look at this snow map no way nw nj gets 2" from this. gfs out to lunch with this storm

I don't know what to think for me.

GFS has ALLLL Rain for the southern areas, that's messed up its off its rocker, I hope this is tossed.

rb924119 wrote:OMGGGGGG 12z NAM clown map:

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=DIX

This map actually shows less snow for our area then your map does. What's the wow for?

algae888 wrote:I do not buy gfs surface temps at all. as a matter of fact I do not buy most models surface temps. there is no way we warm above frz 1am to 7am sunday with this snow pack and several fresh inches of snow otg. no way that is happening no matter what the models show!

Algae I posted a forecast and analysis last night at 10:45 that explains what you just said in a little more detail. It seems to be spot on for what the models are depicting right now but I'm mobile and cant copy/paste it. Could you copy and paste it on here for me. I think its right on!

amugs wrote:Coming up on my phone but not my computer. Besides having issues loading or refreshing threads today's anyone else?
Map looks good rb and you will verify

Yes Mugs I'm having the same problem. It was happening to me yesterday also. It even told me the url address was not available.

algae888 wrote:look at this snow map no way nw nj gets 2" from this. gfs out to lunch with this storm

.....I agree. D.C. gets 6 to 8" and up here we get 2"?????

Just got home so I can re-post this..

HERE'S THE OFFICIAL SYOSNOW FORECAST!

Rain???? Has anyone making a forecast been outside tonight. Epic cold the next 48 hours!!!

Hey Crew. No model can pick up on the extreme cold in place over this snowpack! Plus the ocean is freezing and in many cases the bays here on the south shore of LI are frozen over and can be walked on. Here's the key and I don't need no stinkin model...
if we can get down into the mid single digits tomorrow night ( which we are predicted to do)with light winds and radiational cooling, then we're in business. On Saturday early morning it clouds over keeping the temps. from getting much above 25 here on LI and NYC metro. Then as precip starts we wet bulb down to low 20's. This allows a 3 to 5" solid frond end thump area wide and then NYC and LI get dry slotted late Saturday night and possibly get some freezing drizzle Sunday with temps never getting above freezing, except maybe South fork of LI and Central Jersey coast.

Hudson Valley, NNj and CT get solid 4 to 7"

Mark it down now!!

Syo I agree 100% CMC coming in colder still snowing hour 42 6 a.m. Sunday on mobile can't post

any word on the euro?

Euro has 3-6, 4 even down to city but fine line, NW more maybe 5-8.

Jman , do you buy this snow event ? Seems that models this year have been wrong

Euro brings the goods from hr 36 -45 moderate to heavy snow having trouble getting on site only from mobile phone and can't post maps pita!!! A colder solution incoming onto short range models guys and gals we are within 24 hours of a secs storm for the area. RGEM and GEM LAM

Snowman I just pmed Frank on the other site and let's see it happened to me yesterday as well and all day - Scholar policy about us being on cell phones so I can only do so on my lunch of free period UGGGHHH!