1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
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1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
As early as 2-4pm Saturday afternoon, snow or ice will move into the NYC Metro area due to a developing low pressure system in the southeast US.
The -PNA helps the southeast ridge amplify over the east coast. Without a PV in eastern Canada, there's no mechanism to try and suppress it. However, there will be a High to our northwest that will prevent the low from doing a full cut to our west. So we avoid the rain and temps in the 40's.
You can see the GFS starts us as snow before transitioning over the ice or rain. The EURO and GEM appear to be much colder. They keep the cold air in tact longer and show a weaker low.
1st call snow map:
I do caution that the 4-8" is probably TOO HIGH. With my final call I can see the light and darker shade of blue becoming 1 zone of 3-6". I want to see if overnight and 12z runs tomorrow trend wetter with this system, which I think is possible still. Pretty confident about the other regions at this time.
Final call tomorrow @7pm
The -PNA helps the southeast ridge amplify over the east coast. Without a PV in eastern Canada, there's no mechanism to try and suppress it. However, there will be a High to our northwest that will prevent the low from doing a full cut to our west. So we avoid the rain and temps in the 40's.
You can see the GFS starts us as snow before transitioning over the ice or rain. The EURO and GEM appear to be much colder. They keep the cold air in tact longer and show a weaker low.
1st call snow map:
I do caution that the 4-8" is probably TOO HIGH. With my final call I can see the light and darker shade of blue becoming 1 zone of 3-6". I want to see if overnight and 12z runs tomorrow trend wetter with this system, which I think is possible still. Pretty confident about the other regions at this time.
Final call tomorrow @7pm
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
4 to 8 would be great. 3 to 6 still good especially compared to what we were expecting just 18 hours ago.
2004blackwrx- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
Frank great map and the cold trend is there. I write there is snow on the ground everywhere north of a line from Cape Hatteras, NC across to the southern border of the state of Tennessee. How much warm air can reasonably & plausibly be expected to be advected north given such a circumstance, considering the mid latitude disturbance is not some behemoth? I think the gfs is a tad warm given thus just mho here but we'll see
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Mugs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
Any models out yet
mancave25- Posts : 112
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
NAM should be....
Biggin23- Posts : 259
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
THE NOT A MODEL and guess what showing snow from dc to midsletown, NY and heavy dbz snows hours 18z to 21z from cnj north to Poughkeepsie. Colder run definitely se what the other models show. Imo gfs to warm from what I posted above.
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
3 to 6 just north and west with another interesting storm. This is a decent hit but it seems the interest isn't here.
2004blackwrx- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
2004blackwrx wrote:3 to 6 just north and west with another interesting storm. This is a decent hit but it seems the interest isn't here.
Most people are worn out just from tracking, haha.
The dumbo model did trend colder. I want to see GFS.
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
I'm interested, but I don't think this storm an trend enough to the coastal plain. Might end up being an over performer inland where the cold air hangs on a little longer.
Biggin23- Posts : 259
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
Biggin23 wrote:I'm interested, but I don't think this storm an trend enough to the coastal plain. Might end up being an over performer inland where the cold air hangs on a little longer.
Yes, eastern PA - west NJ - southern NY
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
Frank_Wx wrote:2004blackwrx wrote:3 to 6 just north and west with another interesting storm. This is a decent hit but it seems the interest isn't here.
Most people are worn out just from tracking, haha.
The dumbo model did trend colder. I want to see GFS.
Very understandable this winter especially with all the tracking and no big ones yet.
2004blackwrx- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
Frank How much rain with this? Do I escape !-2 inches?
oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
Frank_Wx wrote:Biggin23 wrote:I'm interested, but I don't think this storm an trend enough to the coastal plain. Might end up being an over performer inland where the cold air hangs on a little longer.
Yes, eastern PA - west NJ - southern NY
I need about 50 miles, LOL. Just close enough to give me hope and just close enough to make it painful Saturday night. Oh well, we have gotten lucky the last two systems it is time to share the wealth in this forum. If it doesn't come my way, I hope someone else here gets lucky!!
Biggin23- Posts : 259
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
oldtimer wrote:Frank How much rain with this? Do I escape !-2 inches?
Looks like about an inch to 1.25 total qpf....so maybe right around an inch of rain or a little less if snow hangs on a little longer.
Biggin23- Posts : 259
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oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
On 3" line, just got NAMed lol, dont get sucked in...
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
South of I-195 into the Delmarva gets a lot of rain, well over an inch some spots close to two
Biggin23- Posts : 259
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
Nice map, Frank!!!
FWIW 00z NAM clown map:
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=DIX
FWIW 00z NAM clown map:
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=DIX
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
Did anyone see the 0Z RGEM???
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
Math23x7 wrote:Did anyone see the 0Z RGEM???
I haven't. Why? It's not fully in range yet, anyway, so be careful when looking at it. It's meant for very short predictive windows, so anything you see towards the end of its forecast must be taken with skepticism.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
RGEM!!!! colder and a tad wetter - woop woop
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
Right along 95 does very well this run.....
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
REM total snowfall based on 10:1
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015022000/rgem_asnow_neus_16.png
Keep in mind that this is about halfway through the event....
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015022000/rgem_asnow_neus_16.png
Keep in mind that this is about halfway through the event....
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
rb924119 wrote:REM total snowfall based on 10:1
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015022000/rgem_asnow_neus_16.png
Keep in mind that this is about halfway through the event....
Also keep in mind that towards the end of its run, the rain/snow line creeps in from the Atlantic Ocean and approaches NYC and LI.
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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