Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[skinsfan1177]

DAM MJO!!!!!!!! It is stuck in phase 2 and 3 - why is this not good? the Indian Ocean is sealing off this convection from what I have read - kind of absorbing the convection that is building out near the date line in these phases. Need to boot this and this is also an unprecedented aspect to this Nino with this active MJO.

 
What your saying is it needs to move to what phase and currently it's no good?

It either needs to die off or move around to death com (phase) 1 or 8 or even 7. I am not sure what affects this will have as move forward but from reading up on this it is not helping things by dampening the forcing out near the dateline. Teh forcing is strong so it wil eventually override this BUT who knows what can happen - unprecedented event overall. Hopefully it will wane as we move into Met winter. Maybe Rb can chime inhere since he did an unbelievable writ up on this modality - calling Rb? Rb where are yee??

Thanks mugs I always remember hearing phase 8,1,2 where best for us.

[algae888]

Mugs what I'm hearing about the tropical pacific forcing is that it's not concentrated in one area but in several different areas throughout the whole basin. When we look at previous El Ninos like 1997 or 2009 they were more specific and concentrated areas of convection East in1997 and West in 2009. This year seems to be a whole different ballgame and most people including Mets have no idea how this is going to play out. With that said I think the more important aspect of this winter will be the AO and other telecommunications. This year is such a unique event a very strong basin wide El Nino with no real good analogs to look back on.

[sroc4]

As we head deeper into the winter months the same influences will lead to diff patterns.  We are actually starting to see that. Phase 2 and 3 MJO actually are colder phases in the winter months.  
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/

If you look at NDJ you see that phase 3 is a very warm temp anomaly; however, as we head into DJF, and JFM the same phase 2, 3 MJO favors cold in the east.  Remember if air goes up in one location it goes down in another.  As the temp gradients hopefully cont to increase between the western el nino regions and eastern ones the tendencies of rising air around the date line will increase infuencing the atmosphere more and more.  Unfort I am stuck at work.  I would love to be able to go into in way more detail.

[sroc4]

Recall this image I posted from back on Oct 31st.  Look at the moisture fetch, aka atmosphereic river, in the northern hemisphere I have outlined in blue.  This originates in the Indian Ocean in the phase 2, 3 locations of the MJO.  

" />

Now look at the current image.  That same moisture fetch is still playing a huge role in influencing the behavior of the polar jet.  It really has not changed.  But climatology will begin to influence how the interactions affect the jet.  


Here is the link to the sat loop.  It is really impressive to see actually.  Just rememebr to adjust animation speed to 0.1 and the "Animation for" the last 24hrs.  
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/gms/index.html?area=6&element=0&mode=UTC

[amugs]

Scott,

Thanks for the clarification on the MJO in phase 3 - I was always under the assumption that a phase 3 was not conducive for the east coast but that is wrong.

@ Al - it will all aid in the STJ pumping - the majority of the trop forcing/convection is out by the dateline by the OLR maps I posted yesterday

[Frank_Wx]

The bulk of the westerly winds continue to be west of 120W. One thing to notice from this graphic is these WWB (westerly wind bursts) are not as strong as they have been the last 2 months. The WWB event that took place in mid-Oct is probably 1 reason why Nino regions 3.4 and 3 are at or above 3.0*C.



Meanwhile, the AO has averaged very positive the last couple of weeks. You can see the dip in the AO around Thanksgiving, which is when we're expected to see our coldest temps of the season so far. Thereafter, it should trend positive again. However, the CFS model is gradually projecting the AO to trend negative as we head deep into the winter season.



You can see why the AO has been super positive lately. Core of the cold anomalies, or a very strong polar jet, confined to the Arctic.



There's SOME hope at 50mb in the Stratosphere the PV may try to split in the Day 10-14. I'm not really going to believe that until next week and until we see warm temps physically transfer from the Troposphere to the Stratosphere. Like I said in my winter outlook, if this happens it will be around mid December.

[amugs]

Look at how region 1.2 feel off the table on this chart WOW!!



Look at how we are boiling out by the date line and beyond - woop woop!!This is comparison of 1997, 2009 and 2015

[rb924119]

DAM MJO!!!!!!!! It is stuck in phase 2 and 3 - why is this not good? the Indian Ocean is sealing off this convection from what I have read - kind of absorbing the convection that is building out near the date line in these phases. Need to boot this and this is also an unprecedented aspect to this Nino with this active MJO.

 
What your saying is it needs to move to what phase and currently it's no good?

It either needs to die off or move around to death com (phase) 1 or 8 or even 7. I am not sure what affects this will have as move forward but from reading up on this it is not helping things by dampening the forcing out near the dateline. Teh forcing is strong so it wil eventually override this BUT who knows what can happen - unprecedented event overall. Hopefully it will wane as we move into Met winter. Maybe Rb can chime inhere since he did an unbelievable writ up on this modality - calling Rb? Rb where are yee??

Idk why, but this made me laugh haha

Back to the topic; sorry man, had a busy day today. Admittedly, this is something that I should have seen, but I just flat-out missed it. Live and learn. Anyway, Sroc pretty much hit it on the head with his response, so I won't restate it. I am liking how the longer range looks, with the EPO progged to tank (and I mean TANK, -4 to -5 stdev.) and the PNA gradually trend positive, coupled with MJO phase 2/3 forcing all occurring simultaneously, I think we see a great start to December, both active and cold, a brief respite through about the 20th as the patterns continue to battle it out, and then we lock in for the holidays. Just MHO, though.

[Snow88]

GFS unloads the cold on us the 1st week of December. It also shows a coastal storm near the famous date ( 12/5 )

[NjWeatherGuy]

I have a feeling we begin to see our first flakes and storm potentials pop up within the next few weeks. Tighten your seat belts.

[amugs]

I have a feeling we begin to see our first flakes and storm potentials pop up within the next few weeks. Tighten your seat belts.

Tomas talking dirty!! Love it seeing u post this.

[Snow88]

Come on NAO lol. This picture reminds me of the past 2 winters.

[skinsfan1177]

Come on NAO lol. This picture reminds me of the past 2 winters.

This NAO to cooperate for us here this winter it's a key factor.

[amugs]

Look at the snow growth over Canada this past week and Mongolia - WOW!!

Nov 8th


Nov 18th


With more to come! Much less moderation of cold air when we get the cross polar flow or PV sliding down peeps!

Last year in comparison:

[sroc4]

Come on NAO lol. This picture reminds me of the past 2 winters.

This NAO to cooperate for us here this winter it's a key factor.

With -EPO years the AO and NAO are not nearly as important. The El Nino is still a variable for this winter, but the last two winters both AO and NAO were strongly positve. I am not as hung up on the need for a neg NAO/AO for this winter to be above normal, but certainly could take a good winter and make it great.

[31MBP]

hi guys, huge favor regarding work....does anyone have a link to a respected long range, say 30 day forecast.....not a webcast type thing...just a chart/calendar would be a huge help....ty!

[HectorO]

So far next week looks pretty mild low 60s. Some places getting to mid 60s.

[skinsfan1177]

Come on NAO lol. This picture reminds me of the past 2 winters.

This NAO to cooperate for us here this winter it's a key factor.

With -EPO years the AO and NAO are not nearly as important.  The El Nino is still a variable for this winter, but the last two winters both AO and NAO were strongly positve.  I am not as hung up on the need for a neg NAO/AO for this winter to be above normal, but certainly could take a good winter and make it great.  

True I just remember reading I think it was Frank's winter outlook that this year we may need the help. But who knows this winter looks like it's going to be wild

[nutleyblizzard]

Come on NAO lol. This picture reminds me of the past 2 winters.

This NAO to cooperate for us here this winter it's a key factor.

With -EPO years the AO and NAO are not nearly as important.  The El Nino is still a variable for this winter, but the last two winters both AO and NAO were strongly positve.  I am not as hung up on the need for a neg NAO/AO for this winter to be above normal, but certainly could take a good winter and make it great.  

True I just remember reading I think it was Frank's winter outlook that this year we may need the help. But who knows this winter looks like it's going to be wild

I believe Frank did mention he expects the EPO to be negative this winter just not as strong as the past two years. So it would help to have a favorable Atlantic on our side.

[algae888]

The long-range Canadian and gfs look cold. I like the Canadian idea of a more progressive flow with the cold front moving through late next week. we will have a negative EPO and a positive PNA to start off December However with the lack of blocking we would need everything to be timed just right to see any snow but the possibilities are there. Should be interesting to see if this is short-lived cold or last s a few more weeks into December. we have to see what the typhoon does in the Pacific if it strengthens to a cat5 and curves north. Interesting times ahead

[sroc4]

The long-range Canadian and gfs  look cold. I like the Canadian idea of a more progressive flow with the cold front moving through late next week.  we will have a negative EPO and a positive PNA to start off December However with the lack of blocking we would need everything to be timed just right to see any snow but the possibilities are there. Should be interesting to see if this is short-lived cold or  last s a few more weeks into December. we have to see what the typhoon does in the Pacific if it strengthens to a cat5 and curves north. Interesting times ahead

Agreed Al

[Frank_Wx]

hi guys, huge favor regarding work....does anyone have a link to a respected long range, say 30 day forecast.....not a webcast type thing...just a chart/calendar would be a huge help....ty!

The only service I know that does this is Accuweather. Here is an example of Austin, TX:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/austin-tx/78701/november-weather/351193

To be honest with you, I would not trust them very much. You are better off asking one of us and we can get an idea for you. Once we're within the 10-14 day range we have a pretty good idea of how your sensible weather will be.

[jmanley32]

hi guys, huge favor regarding work....does anyone have a link to a respected long range, say 30 day forecast.....not a webcast type thing...just a chart/calendar would be a huge help....ty!

The only service I know that does this is Accuweather. Here is an example of Austin, TX:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/austin-tx/78701/november-weather/351193

To be honest with you, I would not trust them very much. You are better off asking one of us and we can get an idea for you. Once we're within the 10-14 day range we have a pretty good idea of how your sensible weather will be.

I have the accuwx app, that 30 day daily forecast almost never verifies it even changes drastically within 24-48 hrs, like two days ago it had wind gusts today to 50mph.....umm a little breezy that's it.

[Snow88]

Chance of the storm coming west on Monday and another chance of a coastal storm near the start of December. Cold and possibly stormy end of the month coming up.

[amugs]

HeRe is theory and I wil need to do some work on this but the OLR are showing to areas of convection one by and past the dateline and the other blob in the Indian Ocean. I am theorizing that the blob or convection in the IO is partly responsible for the -EPO. Look at the OLR to see.


It is causing the air to rise in the section and raise the heights over the far East region thus causing the air ti sink as it reaches this Alaskan hinterland.

Also we need this MJO wave to die off as well to allow our westward shift to continue going west, it seems to be getting slowed even though we are in good range at the 150 w area to the dateline. Good stuff here. Trop forcing going to flex it's muscle and also help with the -epo due to convective feedback

[Snow88]

Not a great pattern at all now on all of the models. Was once a cold and stormy pattern to start off December is now a warm pattern.

[skinsfan1177]

Not a great pattern at all now on all of the models. Was once a cold and stormy pattern to start off December is now a warm pattern.

I believe Frank has been saying it will be warm for beginning of december

[Sponsored content]