May 2015 Observations and Discussions

very muggy today and tomorrow looks hot and sticky too but after that looks like several days of nice spring weather by the way my brother in Denver Colorado received 8 inches of snow yesterday and he's not in the mountains

Nyi1058 wrote:Hey fellas ! Can anybody take a look at this coming sat . I have a 100 mile bike ride I signed up for . It's from Babylon to montauk . As of now I'm seeing some showers in the forecast . Was wondering if anybody can pin point the timing .
Again this is the best place for the weather . I'm a lurker mostly . But do post once in a while .

Hello!

My current thinking is the bulk of the rain will occur over the evening Friday into early Saturday morning. The rest of the day Saturday will feature on and off rain showers. I do not expect this to be a washout of a day. There may actually be clearing in the afternoon with some sun. Remind me to give another update either tomorrow or Wednesday for a more accurate picture

it looks like we may have a persistent South East Ridge this summer which as you know can pump very warm humid air into our area as Frank stated above there seems to be a trough in the Southwest US which is just as persistent hopefully we will not have a hot humid summer

Frank_Wx wrote:

Nyi1058 wrote:Hey fellas ! Can anybody take a look at this coming sat . I have a 100 mile bike ride I signed up for . It's from Babylon to montauk . As of now I'm seeing some showers in the forecast . Was wondering if anybody can pin point the timing .
Again this is the best place for the weather . I'm a lurker mostly . But do post once in a while .

Hello!

My current thinking is the bulk of the rain will occur over the evening Friday into early Saturday morning. The rest of the day Saturday will feature on and off rain showers. I do not expect this to be a washout of a day. There may actually be clearing in the afternoon with some sun. Remind me to give another update either tomorrow or Wednesday for a more accurate picture

ok thanks frank !! Very much appreciate it !!

Muggy outside - 82* and just summer like - yuk!

Some pop up thunderstorms in NJ.

radar shows showers around Newark and into Manhattan moving north and weakening. Was that for real or is CPK still bone dry?

ah I see CPK is reporting reporting light rain. Dry warm and humid here.

Was sitting outside having a cigar and there was a wind driven sunshower from a single cumulus cloud over me,LOL.The proverbial single cloud just raining on me.60% of the sky was blue,LOL!

Just your luck doc. Who was that character from Charlie Brown that always had the cloud hanging over him? I've been putting up a fence with my neighbor that has rotted out over the past 20 yrs.He's 86 yrs. old,but you'd never know it. We've been comparing our aches and pains on a daily basis-it's been pretty funny actually. Sorry if I've wandered off topic, but it's pretty quiet here since winter's over. Been getting a good tan started being outside all day.

GreyBeard wrote:Just your luck doc. Who was that character from Charlie Brown that always had the cloud hanging over him? I've been putting up a fence with my neighbor that has rotted out over the past 20 yrs.He's 86 yrs. old,but you'd never know it. We've been comparing our aches and pains on a daily basis-it's been pretty funny actually. Sorry if I've wandered off topic, but it's pretty quiet here since winter's over. Been getting a good tan started being outside all day.

LOLO, Greybeard, if I didn't have pain everyday, then I'd think I was dead,LOL!

Love that neighbor buddy of yours,my hero at age 86! Reminds me of my Dad at age 85 re-building the brick stairs at his house.

Hey, Ibuprofen is your friend,Greybeard!

Another sultry,tropical like day with temps in the 80's to near 90 and humidity in the upper 60's to upper 70's, LOVELY!

Hi Frank!! My daughter is getting married down in Beach Haven Saturday at 4pm on the beach. Any idea if she will get rained out?

Angela0621 wrote:Hi Frank!! My daughter is getting married down in Beach Haven Saturday at 4pm on the beach.  Any idea if she will get rained out?

wow a lot going on for sat , hey maybe frank can do a " rain" map like he does a snow map for this week !!!!

I have measured .03 of rain this month so far, and 3 days with a Trace.

Angela0621 wrote:Hi Frank!! My daughter is getting married down in Beach Haven Saturday at 4pm on the beach.  Any idea if she will get rained out?

Yay congratulations!!!

So it looks like Saturday is an important day for a lot of people. Unfortunately, a change in guidance overnight is showing less rain overnight Friday into Saturday morning and more in the afternoon hours. Let's take a look at the GGEM and GFS.

GGEM 1pm Saturday



7pm Saturday



The GGEM does not bring rain to the Jersey Shore until 10pm on Saturday. The majority of the day is dry with rain mainly to the north.

GGEM 7am Saturday



For NYC Metro, the GGEM is trying to give areas north of NYC into NNJ a washout of a day with rain beginning around 5am and persisting through the rest of the day as a warm front moves through.

GFS 1pm



GFS 7pm



The GFS model has rain holding off for the Jersey Shore and NYC Metro until 1-2pm. After that, it looks like a good amount of rain moves into the area.



It looks like the cut-off trough in the western US is helping to pump up the southeast ridge over the eastern US which is going tor result in muggy / humid weather and pop-up showers and thunder showers.

For the Jersey Shore: Saturday should be mainly dry in the morning with peaks of sun and temps getting into the 80's with pop-up showers moving in around 1-2pm. After 4pm, the rain may become persistent and steady.

For NYC Metro: Saturday could be mainly wet for most of the day especially the further north you are. Temps will not get as warm as they will to our south, but humid and showery weather should be expected.

Originally I thought this could all come at one shot overnight Friday but guidance has changed. These warm fronts are tricky to forecast so lets see if there is another change in the next 24-48 hours.

Thanks, I will keep checking in. As long as we can get 3:30 to 4:30 dry we can pull off the ceremony on the beach!!

Awesome frank thanks !!! I'm mainly concerned with the south shore of Long Island . That north trend is keeping me positive . As long as we are not a washout , we can deal with a few showers !

90.4... 1st of season...82 at the wx station at the inlet. Nice beach day

the word of the day is HOT! We went from winter to summer...no spring. Ace you still want to see my Sandy & PTSD paper?

Jman you making it to the meet up

Its pretty far for me, it depends on the 2 yr old and I also asked if the group would really want a 2 yr old running around at the get together. If we did come I'd be the 3 of us most likely. I said maybe at this time.

Frank so is it safe to say a outdoor plan for Sat morning is no good? Even the slightest of rain would be no good for what I have planned.

Jman look for my update tomorrow - as of now I'll say bad day.

Front is close now, winds picked up down to 71°