GODZILLA..BLIZZARD WARNING NYC METRO

EURO IS HUGE HIT

12-18 inches of snow, isolated 20+

WOW

Im all in ...the euro went nuts..the euro rnsembles went crazier...the nam is playing catch up on the 6z right now...1-2 ' ..heaviest on LI...enjoy all. The pattern looks like junk overall but this is a perfect phase for us.

Also 70+ mph winds on LI ...60-65 nyc...up to 60 in NE Nj..45+ inland NNJ/hv


Moderate coastal flooding looks likely at times of high tide.

Apparently u can get a perfect phase is a crap pattern

They posted a blizzard warning for Suffolk county

So I actually like what the NWS Upton has for us this morning for totals. The Euro held firm with an earlier phase keeping LI in the 18-24" zone. That being said it looks like GFS, NAM, and some of the other short range models, had a later phase, and slight less Total QPF...hense why the NWS idea of kind of in the middle works for me. Looking at the current water vapor imagery the two pieces are coming along nicely, but I would like to see the HP in SE Canada get a little stronger during the day today..looks like its currently at around 1036mb.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/okx/stormtotalprecip.php

did anyone notice the 12z nam. hr42 we get crushed with 1.5 liqiud. 15 inches of snow!!! in 6 hrs!! am i seeing right?

The 12z nam brings 2-3 feet of snow for parts of the area

The NAM was rediculous!!

When storms phase and blowup like this the meteorlogists and the models don't really know where the banding, dry slots and heavy bands will setup, stall, or just plain miss. They don't even know those things the day of the storm.

This could hit someone in our area with over 2 feet of snow and someone could end up with only 3-5 inches.

The latest several Nor'Easters Many in our area have been in the jackpot. The February 2010 blizzard had accumulations of 35 inches here in Highland MIlls in Orange County, 32 in Monroe, 28 in West Milford, 24.2 in Newark, 20.9 in Central Park (under counted as always), and 31.8 inches in Elizabeth NJ.

Remember what Boston got from that? A lot of Rain and 1 inch of wrap around snow. Sometimes you're in the jackpot and sometimes you're not. It will be interesting to follow.

This storm is looking very good on the radar. I fear this will trend even stronger on the rest of the model suites tonight at 00z. This is a very powerful storm with an unusual set up. I will make a final snow map to be released around 6pm, but I can tell you know it will not look much different.

Hey Frank,

I have been following your forecasts for years and you really are much more reliable than most of the news guys. But I cant see your maps for some reason. I am in Western Suffolk county on Long Island, what did you think we might get?

The map is in another thread. Go check it out, I think I have 12-20 for you.

Ok thanks!!!

RGEM snow map is 6-12 inches for NYC

EURO coming soon

Frank_Wx wrote:RGEM snow map is 6-12 inches for NYC

EURO coming soon

Frank, do you see any dry slots when the snow comes? If so, where?

12z EUROOOO HOLY!!!

2 feet of snow for Long Island and 12-18 for NYC!!!!

Math23x7 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:RGEM snow map is 6-12 inches for NYC

EURO coming soon

Frank, do you see any dry slots when the snow comes? If so, where?

Dry slots will be in PA. Not here

This run basically agrees with my snow map. Especially the 20-30 inches part in central LI into CT

EURO extractions

NYC: 2.25"- All snow. The 1st .25" of it are 33-34 degrees. After, in the 20s
LGA: 2.39"- All snow. The 1st .25" of it are 33-34 degrees. After, in the 20s
ISP: 3.06"- Could be about 1" of mix/rain but 2"+ is cold snow
EWR: 2.08"- All snow. The 1st .25" of it are 33-34 degrees. After, in the 20s.
HPN: 2.49"- All snow. The 1st .17" of it are 33-34 degrees. After, in the 20s
BDR: 2.84"- All snow
ABE: 1.03" - All snow
Phl: 1.41" - .52" of it is rain/mix. The rest is snow
Bos: 2.73" - All snow

Frank:

The Euro seems to have been on this the earliest and the most consistent. If that run verify's your map will be spot on, maybe even slightly conservative.

Anyway do you have an extraction from the Euro for Newburgh (Stewart airport) in Orange county? The airport symbol is SWF.

Tight cutoff, EURO has me on the 1.75" line, come on, tuck in a little closer like the NAM and I'm golden. This could be a storm to remember, or another bust for me like Boxing Day haha.

18z NAM OMG!!!!

NAM QPF OMGGGG!!!! 2-3 feet!!!

I don't think it's all snow, Mt. Holly saying about 6-8" for us because of mixing, but the 2-2.5" QPF would be nice per NAM.

Frank, I looked at the 850 temps for hr 42 on the 18Z NAM.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=18&image=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_042_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

I notice that oval just east of NYC is that for 850mb temps <10C or >0C. If it's greater than 0C, will sleet and freezing rain mix in?

The NAM is more rain than snow for southern NJ, including south-central NJ...but most of it is snow for the rest of us. Including Tom. I just saw soundings.

BLIZZARD WARNING

I'm right on the edge of this one, could easily bust, NAM had me on the 24" line but the EURO and GFS are far less, a nailbiter for sure.