GODZILLA..BLIZZARD WARNING NYC METRO

Im worried about rain, this coastal needs to form a little bit earlier because the surface temps are looking warm on the models, probably because of a torch from the primary low.

1st guess snow map and synopsis from EPAWA

http://epawablogs.com/wx-alert-maps/

[i][u]There is something about this storm I want to address. This is not your ordinary "phase" coastal storm. We are dealing with two well defined vorts that are simultaneously tracking east. The sharp trough over the northeast allows the southern stream to come up the coast. As it does so, the northern vort shares its energy with that one, and the two eventually phase near the BM.

Now, what most do not realize here is that as the northern stream energy begins transferring energy over to the southern stream vort, winds will be shifted from southeast to northwest. This will help usher in the cold air all the way to the coast. The push of energy with the northern vort should keep this storm much colder than what the GFS is showing. And I also feel the EURO is losing it's verification range and will eventually jog back west 30 miles by tonight or 12z tomorrow. The EURO Ensembles are west of the OP.

I think a swath of 12+ inch snows are likely from NNJ to NYC to LI and northeast from there, with heavier accumulations as well back into EPA, CNJ, and NEPA (as shown by EPAWA map).

NWS raising snow amounts

https://2img.net/h/oi47.tinypic.com/xoo6ti.png[/IMG

Frank could cnj coast see significant snow with this?
Lee goldberg just said that cnj south mainly all rain event with little snow accum.

Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
401 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

NJZ006-106>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-070515-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0001.130208T1800Z-130209T1800Z/
HUDSON-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
401 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY METRO AND LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS COULD RESULT IN
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BRING DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS...AND CAUSE
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

skinsfan1177 wrote:Frank could cnj coast see significant snow with this?
Lee goldberg just said that cnj south mainly all rain event with little snow accum.

He's wrong, 5+ inches likely for you. Maybe 8+

Winter storm watches now up!

This look hard to forecast, temp profiles look difficult. SFC looks terrible, curious to see how you see me on the border of 8+ Frank.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:This look hard to forecast, temp profiles look difficult. SFC looks terrible, curious to see how you see me on the border of 8+ Frank.

I don't think temps will be an issue Tom. As the northern stream transfers energy to the southern stream, that will prevent winds from coming out of the south-southeast. They will come out of the northwest. You will see mainly snow.

IDK 850s and surface are bad for almost the entire Friday part of the storm or so it looks like.

Hey guys..found the link from 7online.com to join the chat here

The advisory says 6-10 for most of NYC metro/long island..but Lee Goldberg is not going with that because he says the water temps will be too warm(41*) what are the odds the water temps will drop so we can get that 6-10?

Are we still doing chat at 9 tonight?

Hey Ace what do you think we will get here as far as snow goes

I'm far from a expert at this but I have a feeling a good 3-6 is a good target RIGHT NOW. We will deal with a lot of mixing for a good part or it. BUT if things trend better you never know.....

Lee Goldberg is starting to change his stance on the totals..he said he may change the 6-12 line now even more south because he extended Montauk LI in it..he's finally getting with it..CBS 2 is calling for 4-8+ 12+ CT north

No seriously are we still doing chat tonight. I would like to know lol

18z gfs clobbers us. especially fir nite sat morn.

than another 980 low next thurs. i know a little far out but wow!!

by the way new to this board joined yesterday. was following u guys on accu board.

I just joined here today myself,but i sure hope all the latest model trends hold..because thats good news for us..but here's an updated NWS winter storm watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
453 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

NJZ006-106>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-070615-
/O.COR.KOKX.WS.A.0001.130208T1800Z-130209T1800Z/
HUDSON-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
453 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY METRO AND LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 10 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS COULD RESULT IN
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BRING DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS...AND CAUSE
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

They originally had 6-10,now 4-10 i think may things will go back and forth till Friday

I seem to remember hearing that the 18zs are not too accurate since it just reconsiders older data from the 12z runs, anyone know if this is the case? Lee just mentioned that the gfs (I'm assuming he meant the 18z ) is not as reliable.....he is waiting to change his totals......

yes i believe they recycle data. nothing new. but it is still six hours closer to the event.

That's right Dunzoo; the intermediate models (6z/18z) are runs that are only based off of forecasts for that initialization period from the z/12z respectively. For example, an 18z run is initialized using the 12z's forecast for 18z. I agree with Frank; I think that this trends further west than what it is now, especially in regard to the 12z Euro. The southern energy looks to be moving slightly more north than forecast. Also, the energy in the southern states associated with the nice upper level trough looks to be stronger. While the bulk of that energy is not what will become our storm, it ultimately decides where it goes.

Thanks guys, looks like a late night for us, would love to see the 00zs

Quietace wrote:No seriously are we still doing chat tonight. I would like to know lol

Yes

EURO IS HUGE HIT

12-18 inches of snow, isolated 20+

WOW

Im all in ...the euro went nuts..the euro rnsembles went crazier...the nam is playing catch up on the 6z right now...1-2 ' ..heaviest on LI...enjoy all. The pattern looks like junk overall but this is a perfect phase for us.

Also 70+ mph winds on LI ...60-65 nyc...up to 60 in NE Nj..45+ inland NNJ/hv


Moderate coastal flooding looks likely at times of high tide.

Apparently u can get a perfect phase is a crap pattern