Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Great disco from nhc on projected path of irma showing all model solutions...

The initial motion is 290/15. The hurricane is currently being steered by the subtropical ridge to the north, and for the next 48 h or so this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in the forward speed. After 48 h, a mid- to upper-level trough digging into the eastern United States is expected to create a break in the ridge and allow Irma to turn northward. The timing of the turn is the most important question and one still filled with uncertainty. The UKMET, UK Ensemble mean, and the NAVGEM are the models showing the latest turn, and they forecast Irma to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and near the west coast of the Florida Peninsula. The ECMWF and ECMWF Ensemble mean are in the middle of the model pack and show Irma moving over the southeastern portion of the Florida Peninsula. The GFS, Canadian, and GFS Ensemble mean show the earliest turn and show Irma moving east of the coast of Florida toward the southeastern United States. The new forecast track will best follow the ECMWF, as well as the Florida State Superensemble and the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and it calls for the center to move over portions of the southeastern Florida Peninsula between 72-96 h and then across the Atlantic into southern South Carolina by 120 h. Users are again reminded not to focus on the exact track since the average NHC track errors at days 3, 4, and 5 are about 120, 175, and 225 miles, respectively.

A point here is how many years has the hurricane season been quiet? Unfortunately, we are due and for some in deep doo

It looks like the 6z GFS pulls it west about 6 hours earlier than the 0z did. It makes landfall further south along the coast of South Carolina. Still the same strength though. Damn, this storm just refuses to weaken.

TheAresian wrote:It looks like the 6z GFS pulls it west about 6 hours earlier than the 0z did. It makes landfall further south along the coast of South Carolina. Still the same strength though. Damn, this storm just refuses to weaken.

She is on a mission - Recon has 919/18 MB and 175mph SW still
She is Petty - WONT BACK DOWN!!
IF YUO ANYONE ON TEHE C OF FLA THEY NEED TO GET THE H OUT OF TOWN IF NOT DONE SO ESPECIALLY S FLA

Mugs, could you do me a favor and post that wind chart for the Columbia, SC area? My daughter is making her evacuation decision today and I want to be able to give her the most info that I can.

Three hurricanes at once in the Atlantic? Oil prices are going up

If anyone has family in the Southeast and they're seeking information, please ask here and I will work on answering them.

Frank_Wx wrote:If anyone has family in the Southeast and they're seeking information, please ask here and I will work on answering them.

Hi Frank..I have an Aunt and cousin in Pompano Beach fl...tried getting in touch this morning..they originally were going to stay...but not sure what is going on today...and my best friend has an aunt 78 who will not leave her house in the Keys. I also have strong connections to Beaufort NC...thank you Frank..in NC..they are calling for high wind and a lot of rain...not hyping this storm Thank you!!

I have an elderly uncle in Delray Beach, FL. Trying to get in touch with him. I'm getting very concerned. evacuation at this age and state of mind is difficult

I personally am in Orlando Florida and my in laws are in deltona

Barbuda is going to have a total evacuation..the island is "uninhabitable"

weatherwatchermom wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:If anyone has family in the Southeast and they're seeking information, please ask here and I will work on answering them.

Hi Frank..I have an Aunt and cousin in Pompano Beach fl...tried getting in touch this morning..they originally were going to stay...but not sure what is going on today...and my best friend has an aunt 78 who will not leave her house in the Keys. I also have strong connections to Beaufort NC...thank you Frank..in NC..they are calling for high wind and a lot of rain...not hyping this storm Thank you!!

Pompano Beach: Evacuate immediately. The eye of Irma could pass west or directly over them. Both catastrophic scenarios.

Keys: Evacuation not mandatory but suggested. Unless track changes, Irma will pass east of these islands saving them from severe storm surge and torrential rains. They will still see heavy rain and high wind though. This is a mammoth Cat 5 hurricane against small islands. Common sense says to leave. If track of Irma goes more west, then the islands become a mandatory evacuation zone.

Beaufort, NC: Evacuate immediately. Although landfall is likely to be south of this area, they will be on the North-Northeast quadrant of the storm where surge will be at its worst. Torrential rains are also expected. The surge alone warrants evacuation. Irma could still be a Cat 4 hurricane when it makes landfall in GA/SC.

Grselig wrote:I have an elderly uncle in Delray Beach, FL.  Trying to get in touch with him.  I'm getting very  concerned.  evacuation at this age and state of mind is difficult

Delray Beach: Evacuate immediately. The eye of Irma could pass west or directly over them. Both catastrophic scenarios.

Disneyprincess1592 wrote:I personally am in Orlando Florida and my in laws are in deltona

Orlando: At this time, I am thinking the eye passes east of here and your forecast is similar to that of the Florida Keys. Heavy rain and high wind, but not to the point of evacuating. Keep an eye on the track. A wobble west could put you in greater danger.

Frank, what about Columbia, SC?

Frank, what is the possibility of the storm wobbling to the west?

Frank:

Thanks as always for your help. I have close family in the following places in the order that they will be affected:

Key Largo Fla - northernmost Keys
Miami Fla
Greenville SC
Atlanta - NE suburbs
Myrtle Beach SC

Sorry for the long list but I come from a big family and they all keep migrating southeast.

Good bye half of Florida on the 12z NAM

Frank_Wx wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:If anyone has family in the Southeast and they're seeking information, please ask here and I will work on answering them.

Hi Frank..I have an Aunt and cousin in Pompano Beach fl...tried getting in touch this morning..they originally were going to stay...but not sure what is going on today...and my best friend has an aunt 78 who will not leave her house in the Keys. I also have strong connections to Beaufort NC...thank you Frank..in NC..they are calling for high wind and a lot of rain...not hyping this storm Thank you!!

Pompano Beach: Evacuate immediately. The eye of Irma could pass west or directly over them. Both catastrophic scenarios.

Keys: Evacuation not mandatory but suggested. Unless track changes, Irma will pass east of these islands saving them from severe storm surge and torrential rains. They will still see heavy rain and high wind though. This is a mammoth Cat 5 hurricane against small islands. Common sense says to leave. If track of Irma goes more west, then the islands become a mandatory evacuation zone.

Beaufort, NC: Evacuate immediately. Although landfall is likely to be south of this area, they will be on the North-Northeast quadrant of the storm where surge will be at its worst. Torrential rains are also expected. The surge alone warrants evacuation. Irma could still be a Cat 4 hurricane when it makes landfall in GA/SC.

Grselig wrote:I have an elderly uncle in Delray Beach, FL.  Trying to get in touch with him.  I'm getting very  concerned.  evacuation at this age and state of mind is difficult

Delray Beach: Evacuate immediately. The eye of Irma could pass west or directly over them. Both catastrophic scenarios.

Disneyprincess1592 wrote:I personally am in Orlando Florida and my in laws are in deltona

Orlando: At this time, I am thinking the eye passes east of here and your forecast is similar to that of the Florida Keys. Heavy rain and high wind, but not to the point of evacuating. Keep an eye on the track. A wobble west could put you in greater danger.

Frank - Thanks!

Hey frank ! I have a cousin ( who I'm close with like a sis ) her hubby ,8 year old son and a turtle
Named Gary . They are in Boco Roton. Claim they are riding it out instead of heading north to the villages near Orlando

I have family in Jacksonville. Hoping for the best! My Grandmother's name is Irma!

jake732 wrote:Good bye half of Florida on the 12z NAM

Yes Jake the 12 znam corrected West now in line with the other reliable models devastating for southern Florida especially along the east coast. Also notice how much she is slow down when she gets near Florida

Slowing down would make for a question where she goes after FL then no?

I have family in Ponte Vedra (near Jacksonville along the east coast) and co-workers in Jupiter. I am thinking Jupiter needs to evacuate but not sure on Ponte Vedra.

I am on radio silence today. Work is crazy. Well see if the NAM west shift is a wiper effect or not, over the next 24hrs

I am going to reply to everyone individually once the 12z GFS comes through just to see if there are any major changes. Mine as well wait for the latest data.

The 12z NAM is a very scary solution. Up through the middle of southern FL, which means Miami and all of eastern FL are under catastrophic rain, wind, and surge.

Wow

Jose Hurricane Watches up for the same islands (i.e., Antigua & Barbuda) walloped by Irma. That's unimaginable.

GFS looks East of NAM by maybe 30-40 miles.