January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Frank_Wx wrote:Started a thread for Tuesdays clipper. Tomorrow's event we can keep observations in this thread. Ray, nice writeup.

Thank you, sir! Now hopefully it verifies

Good post Ray. I'll preface this next comment with the fact that I am expecting zero snow out of this but......how can your map have a 3-5" line that if extended offshore of NJ should include the eastern half and south shore of LI but instead all of LI is c-1"? Just curious. Thanks

syosnow94 wrote:Good post Ray. I'll preface this next comment with the fact that I am expecting zero snow out of this but......how can your map have a 3-5" line that if extended offshore of NJ should include the eastern half and south shore of LI but instead all of LI is c-1"?  Just curious. Thanks

Thanks! And I knew I should have extended the contours offshore because I had a feeling this question was going to be asked aha basically, the system takes more of an east or east-northeast track once offshore instead of a more northeasterly track. Combined with the fact that it can't fully wrap itself up, it doesn't have the ability to form a very expansive precipitation shield. These factors keep the best forcing and precipitation rates offshore. In reality, the southern coast of Long Island borders the 1-3" zone, which means that it should end up with about an inch, if that clarifies it at all...

Ray do u really think cnj can get 3-5?? Does any model agree with u?

23.1, 80%, 29.47 R

Looks like the IVT is even further south on the radar.

Well that was a horrible forecast. I don't know what's more frustrating; the fact that the radar looked very similar to how I pictured it in my head and it just never translated to the surface, or the fact that I specifically said in my discussion that it's a clipper and they are never good for more than an inch or two at most but went ahead anyway? Opinions? Lol my bad guys and gals. That's the second time this season that I've gone against long-standing patterns and observations, and the second time I've been horribly wrong by doing so. Point taken, Mother Nature, point taken.

Live and learn is what I normally tell myself. Onto the next one!

Inverted troughs are tough to forecast

Frank_Wx wrote:Live and learn is what I normally tell myself. Onto the next one!

Agreed. I'm just really hard on myself lol I'm a perfectionist, so no matter how little or much I'm wrong by, I take it to heart and beat myself up over it. In a vast majority of situations, I see the warning signs, admit they're there, but am usually too headstrong to take them seriously. I also try to beat models at their own game sometimes, which works well outside of 24 hours, but not so much inside, and that's something I HAVE to try to change. As you said, though, I always take away a lesson, because failure is where you create success.

skinsfan1177 wrote:Inverted troughs are tough to forecast

It wasn't really an inverted trough, just like an open wave. It started out looking like an IVT a few days ago, but it evolved. This is one I wish I could get back.....ughhhhhh lol oh well

29* - nice winter feel again.

Ray weather is a humbling experience dont be hard on yourself we all support you and love you man. OTI has a special passport/visa for you if you need to shake it off. Doc and CP will verify if needed.

Mugs

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Live and learn is what I normally tell myself. Onto the next one!

Agreed. I'm just really hard on myself lol I'm a perfectionist, so no matter how little or much I'm wrong by, I take it to heart and beat myself up over it. In a vast majority of situations, I see the warning signs, admit they're there, but am usually too headstrong to take them seriously. I also try to beat models at their own game sometimes, which works well outside of 24 hours, but not so much inside, and that's something I HAVE to try to change. As you said, though, I always take away a lesson, because failure is where you create success.

rb, please don't be offended by me giving you some advice.When I was your age, i would always listen to "old heads", which is what I am now at age 66.Do not be so hard on yourself! You have a long run ahead of you, and life will throw you a lot of curveballs, ESPECIALLY, when you are dealing with a science with so many changing variables.You and the rest of the long range crew should look to get 50 to 75 % accuracy, and if it doesn't work out...well, learn from it and move to the next one.Perfection on God's Green Earth is impossible and will lead you straight into an extended stay at the OTI, Sanitarium,LOL.My late Dad would tell me about marriage.."if you get 75% of what you want you are doing GREAT." same thing applies with anything in life including what you long range guys do.KCACO!!!

Your pal, DOCSTOX

28.2, 70%, 29.49R Mostly cloudy, Calm

According to Mt. Holly, BOLO for some snow surprise showers this afternoon down south. Of course, it's sunny and 40 now...

1.5" today brings my season total to 19.5" Still more than almost all members which is pathetic.

syosnow94 wrote:1.5" today brings my season total to 19.5"  Still more than almost all members which is pathetic.

Not more than up here fella. Plus we've had solid snow cover for 11 straight days, didn't your 11 inch storm disappear in two days? That should only count as half.

I haven't really kept track because its been so sporadic, but I'd guess I'm about 7 or 8 " for the winter. None of which stayed on the ground more than a couple days.