March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

The main difference I can see between the gfs and GGEM is the northern energy is sharper on the gem and tries to partially phase with the southern eneegy. This may tug the surface low to develop closer to the coast.

Steve DiMart (if anyone cares to know) is throwing out the CMC due to it depicting a "+ to — trough in less than 12 hours"...

Ladies & Gentlemen, shall we welcome Miss UKIE to the party??

The UK ie is 6 to 12" New York City East

My forecast is in the scroll. Will revisit later this afternoon and decide whether I have to increase to 3 to 6 inches. I don't think more than 6 inches will fall for NYC and areas north and west. Long Island is a different story

UKIE::

The gefs gets the .4le into nyc and .5+ for most of Long Island big red flag there

Look at radar obs, not sure were due for a complete miss here, we'll see what happens later tonight. Virga returns over me now.

Just heard the NAVGEM (which has been most consistently OTS) is also now WEST.

Looks like the west trend is back. UKIE and NAVGEM are back to showing a moderate storm. If the EURO comes west I think we're in line for a moderate snowstorm. Especially from NYC on East

EURO is slightly west but nothing as dramatic as GGEM, UKIE, & NAVGEM.

Winter Weather Advisories & Winter Storm Watches hoisted for Long Island–excluding NYC boroughs.

sidenote: it is EERILY quiet on here right now

do you think the winter weather advisories  will also include NYC and West

frank 638 wrote:do you think the winter weather advisories  will also include NYC and West

That will greatly depend on if the models this evening & tonight continue to show a trend to the west. If I were a betting man, I'd say NYC will eventually be included in the Advisory level.

SoulSingMG wrote:sidenote: it is EERILY quiet on here right now

because we went from possible blizzard to battling for a nuisance inch!!!!!!!! I have no idea what the elephant is, but its kinda cool. Maybe because the elephant in the room is that every good snow weanie is heartbroken.

It's our fault did anybody throw any ice cubes down the toilet bowl?

Now the EPS is simply F ing with me:  Its west and more amped too.  
Here was the 00z individual members from my post this morning:



And we are back to this:




Here are the Ens Means from 00z then 12z

18z NAM is a confusing, weird mess with a shaaaaarp cutoff right thru LI. The H5 looks better on the run though, for whatever that's worth.

Channel 7 basically has not buying any of this change today

Okay,

I threw in the towel this morning for nothing more than a 2" storm and I was wrong as these fn models are just toying with my mind and ability to decipher what to expect - this si 1" to possibly 5-6" - WTF!!!!!!

Look at the RGEM - come on now I can only say this thank God this is the last winter storm for this season I have to track - at least this season!

EPS - really - I cant take this a 30 mile shift NW and a warning level event IMO



Next question is why am I doing this to me self???

Here is the total 18Z RGEM - the major news outlets will only follow teh euro and gfs on this

Snowfall - really - bite me s and e u _______!!!

Why why did I return??

THE FN STUPID GFS JUST CAVED WEST - NCEP LITERALLY SUCKS
BRINGS HEAVY SNOW INTO NYC - DID I SAY I CANT TAKE THIS!!!!

HRS 36-45 MONMOUTH COUNTY CRUSH JOB - HEAVY SNOW
HRS 39-42 - NYC HEAVY SNOWS
NNJ = MOD SNOW 39-42
WNJ AND HV - SUCKING CIRRUS = PRICELESS FOR MARCH

YUO CANT MAKE THISS HIT UP

SORRY FOR THE CURSING - DOC OPEN THE SANITARIUM I NEED A ROOM TONIGHT BUDDY !!