March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

sroc4 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:I have intentionally stayed away from all forums and my phone until right now.  The precip is whats not done trending.  This is going to get wetter and wetter.  Im telling you it aint ova!

Track looking clear to me based on Euro/CMC/UKIE/NAM all in good agreement in LP placement.  What is not done yet is the focus of the precip.  I am telling YOU all it aint OVA!!

You have very warm SST's off the coast. Can't wait for the hi-res models get in better range. Would not be surprised to see upward ticks in the precip amounts as we get closer to the event. A couple of bumps westward wouldn't hurt either.

I think we get wetter and wetter- I see the .5" line pushing up to NNJ/NY LHV - SECS yes with MECS within reach for just about all of our board members. Nice runs by foreigners today - better here yuo go SCOTT - SPACING between teh LP out in the HOTLANTIC and this system - teh slower the better and we have swung back. Still time to swing more to teh good side from teh GooFuS dark side here. Love to see teh SREFS tonight/tomorrow

UKIE 850mb closed circulation center is in great position verbatim:

Nice Euro came back west with amount of precip. pretty dead on with cmc. I hope so sroc, u think a Godzilla still possible?

sroc4 wrote:

amugs wrote:UKIE PRECIP IS STILL VERY GOOD



15-20MM = .58 - .78" OF LIQUID = APPROX 6-  9" OF SNOW - YOU GOING TO CRY OVER THIS?????

lets get that displaced red in here lol.

jmanley32 wrote:Nice Euro came back west with amount of precip. pretty dead on with cmc. I hope so sroc, u think a Godzilla still possible?

No ready to go that far Jman

a 6-12 event?

SREFS - 3-6" FOR DARKER GREEN MOST WITH 4-8" FOR DARKER BLUE.

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Nice Euro came back west with amount of precip. pretty dead on with cmc. I hope so sroc, u think a Godzilla still possible?

No ready to go that far Jman

Jman this is a low probability at this time 10% is my call but a SECS to MECS range is more in line.

Do we have a start time for this?

Scullybutcher wrote:Do we have a start time for this?

Looks like 5PM ish for the NYC Metro area at this time

So at this time a 3-6 event for coastal areas is a safe bet

Winter Storm Watch up for Boston kind of tells you what the weather service is thinking were this storm will end up!

I'm hearing the eps has a lot of West members it looks really good

I will look give me 5 min Al. I will post the snow map ensembles.

This the start. I think we see the totals upped as we get to this time tomorrow.

low locations, nice area.

Does anyone have the Euro maps to post?

Does not look promising for coastal areas to me, either far west or east.

I guess they are not that bad just much less snow, and not a whole lot around NYC area warning criteria.

HWO:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
424 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-190830-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
424 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM THAT COULD BRING AT
LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW TO THE TRI-STATE AREA ALONG WITH STRONG
WINDS AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

Lee said 1-3 for most. Boy was hoping for a decent storm but we get the drill with that East move.  I got the flu and have to sit around looking at some light snow and 30s!

18z NAM says "you're not getting NAMMED"...

BERNIE RAYNO: 1-3" NYC

http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/snowstorm-for-new-england-clos

SoulSingMG wrote:18z NAM says "you're not getting NAMMED"...

wow nada!