February 9th-10th IVT Update
+16
jimv45
Biggin23
Fededle22
nutleyblizzard
oldtimer
NjWeatherGuy
sroc4
jmanley32
snow247
amugs
rb924119
Sanchize06
skinsfan1177
frank 638
jake732
Frank_Wx
20 posters
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Re: February 9th-10th IVT Update
Let's hope so lots off scattered moisture
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th-10th IVT Update
Frank you keep saying only the rgem has the coastal but the NAM does too, so it does have some support and looks to be much further inland that the snow maps you guys are making. We shall see I guess, I am not holding my breath for anything but will be presently surprised if we get something good. 00z runs will be interesting for SR models.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th-10th IVT Update
Frank_Wx wrote:Check out current radar. Look at all these bands rotating around the 500mb low. As the 500mb low track south and east we have to carefully watch where the norlun sets up and IF a Miller-B coastal low "pops" somewhere like Mugs showed with the RGEM
Dang what are the reports out of CT LI and MA? Must be over a foot in some places no? Doesnt lookt to end anytime soon either, just keeps rotating around, wish I was at my parents enjoying this.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th-10th IVT Update
I wrote this in the other thread and I am going to post it again. I agree with the general 1-3 Frank has but I think some of our members will be surprised in a good way by the IVT.
I want everyone to be very clear on this. IVT has HUGE bust or BOOM potential. I am willing to bet you will get folks down in the DC area crying because they busted because it either never materialized, or set up different than what was modeled. This is the nature of an IVT. I NEVER trust the models verbatim to where they set up and trust even less so the amt of QPF they spit out over the areas they do show it set up. What appears to be a 4-6" event under the IVT can turn into 12-14" in a heart beat. Not saying that happens here but it has and will happen again.
We are all in the game still for this event.
.
I want everyone to be very clear on this. IVT has HUGE bust or BOOM potential. I am willing to bet you will get folks down in the DC area crying because they busted because it either never materialized, or set up different than what was modeled. This is the nature of an IVT. I NEVER trust the models verbatim to where they set up and trust even less so the amt of QPF they spit out over the areas they do show it set up. What appears to be a 4-6" event under the IVT can turn into 12-14" in a heart beat. Not saying that happens here but it has and will happen again.
We are all in the game still for this event.
.
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: February 9th-10th IVT Update
SREFS don't have the coastal and the IVT is way south.
snow247- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th-10th IVT Update
FWIW, GEM-LAM precip total starting at 7AM tomorrow morning.
snow247- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th-10th IVT Update
They're not even out yet, are they; the 21z's? Lol
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: February 9th-10th IVT Update
SREFS are out but not on StormVista. Snow247 is right - they stink!
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Re: February 9th-10th IVT Update
snow247 wrote:FWIW, GEM-LAM precip total starting at 7AM tomorrow morning.
HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM
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Re: February 9th-10th IVT Update
That would make a lot of people angry lmao especially if they watched the weather on the networks haha
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: February 9th-10th IVT Update
rb924119 wrote:That would make a lot of people angry lmao especially if they watched the weather on the networks haha
SREFS DO pop a coastal, albeit late / weak
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Re: February 9th-10th IVT Update
I'm waiting for them to come out on the Ewall. I like those graphics lol
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: February 9th-10th IVT Update
GUYS THEY ARE PLAYING CATCH UP - U HAVE THE GEM LAM, RGEM, HI RES NAM AND REGULAR NAM NOW IT IS COMING AROUND, SREFS SHOWING THE COASTAL ALBEIT WEAK BUT IT IS THERE.
GLOBALS WILL NOT HIT THIS MUCH DUE TO THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE PRESSURE OF THE SFC LP AND MSLP WATCH - MEOSCALE MODELS GOT IT .
GLOBALS WILL NOT HIT THIS MUCH DUE TO THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE PRESSURE OF THE SFC LP AND MSLP WATCH - MEOSCALE MODELS GOT IT .
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: February 9th-10th IVT Update
But that is interesting......that's two models now so far tonight. Trend is our friend?? If that happens, though, southern coastal sections definitely have p-type issues
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: February 9th-10th IVT Update
UGH, why am I tracking this? WHY
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Re: February 9th-10th IVT Update
DON'T FORGET THE UKIE- IMHO THIS IS ON NOW.
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: February 9th-10th IVT Update
amugs wrote:GUYS THEY ARE PLAYING CATCH UP - U HAVE THE GEM LAM, RGEM, HI RES NAM AND REGULAR NAM NOW IT IS COMING AROUND, SREFS SHOWING THE COASTAL ALBEIT WEAK BUT IT IS THERE.
GLOBALS WILL NOT HIT THIS MUCH DUE TO THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE PRESSURE OF THE SFC LP AND MSLP WATCH - MEOSCALE MODELS GOT IT .
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Re: February 9th-10th IVT Update
amugs wrote:DON'T FORGET THE UKIE- IMHO THIS IS ON NOW.
UKIE shows nothing, I thought?
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Re: February 9th-10th IVT Update
Frank_Wx wrote:amugs wrote:DON'T FORGET THE UKIE- IMHO THIS IS ON NOW.
UKIE shows nothing, I thought?
UKIE POPS THE LOW
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Mugs
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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snow247- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th-10th IVT Update
Looking at the new trend do u think the wwa come further north
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th-10th IVT Update
Possibly. Have to see the rest of the guidance to say with any certainty though
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: February 9th-10th IVT Update
TREND NW
21Z
15 Z
21Z
15 Z
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Mugs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: February 9th-10th IVT Update
So far this doesnt look too promising for anything more than the 1-3 but who knows like sroc said this could be nothing or a foot (not that this one in particular but I remember IVT that have gone crazy.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th-10th IVT Update
Snowing here
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: February 9th-10th IVT Update
Wow, doesnt even look like returns over me yet, snowing for about 20 mins and picking up a bit, 31 deg
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: February 9th-10th IVT Update
NAM!!!
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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