Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

[skinsfan1177]

I know it's only the long range op runs so don't kill me here but.................

All these solutions so far look like a repeat of last year where Boston gets absolutely destroyed every 3 or 4 days while we just miss out, and they also look a little warm.  Let me see the ensembles and I'll get excited.  Hopefully the NW trends as we get closer continue.

I don't know about warm the PV is going to elongated and the the cold air will be pumping into the NE.

[skinsfan1177]

https://youtu.be/ntITkhITzvA

[skinsfan1177]

Just watched epawa video on upcoming February they believe the interior will be the place for good snows. Coastal areas not so much. I say no way I believe more snows for all

[snow247]

12z GFS has a snow event for just north of the city on the 7th.

[snow247]

12z GFS has a snow event for just north of the city on the 7th.

And again on the 9th-10th.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I know it's only the long range op runs so don't kill me here but.................

All these solutions so far look like a repeat of last year where Boston gets absolutely destroyed every 3 or 4 days while we just miss out, and they also look a little warm.  Let me see the ensembles and I'll get excited.  Hopefully the NW trends as we get closer continue.

So far Boston is losing to NYC this year 27-10.

Let's keep the ball rolling.

[Math23x7]

Only a three of the 51 0Z EURO ensemble members have significant snowfall in NYC through hr 240.  A majority of the members have no snow in NYC during that time frame...

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Only a three of the 51 0Z EURO ensemble members have significant snowfall in NYC through hr 240.  A majority of the members have no snow in NYC during that time frame...

Who cares, the former King Euro has no clothes.

Post me King Nam references only. and I know the King only does 84 hours, so I guess we're stuck with the Euro, GFS, CMC and all the other pretend joke models until then.

[amugs]

Mike and Syo need to go to the OTI sanitarium for a few days with this negative nanny posting here about the nuisances of temps and ens members showing nada - LOOK AT THE 500MB it shows a stormy and cold period incoming have we not learned that storms will trend  NW in this pattern and the forget teh MJO pulse to a degree, from research with a strong nino it being out by teh dateline it cancels out the mjo pulse in Feb.

The WPO is going NEG by Mid Feb which will help build the EPO and PNA even more from what I have read and this could lock in for like I have been harping on till Mid March and this:

RELOAD!!!!!!!!!!!!





I am and will from now until Thursday if not until spring - the models will be playing catch up with the dynamics with a super nino that is dying off drastically and we are in more of a modoki nino now (only wish this was Nov) and a PV being dislodged with a positive PDO. Unprecedented set up incoming.

Also, if we can get the baroclinic zone to set up off the EC due to a ridge building in the Atlantic come the end of Feb with a PV sitting over HB then we can see 93-94 all over again with storms every few days riding the zone.

Just sit back and enjoy the ride here, A LOT of TRACKING. I am of the firm belief we will get our fair share, majority of storms.

[Math23x7]

Mugs, how am I being negative, I just presented facts.  The fact that three of the ensemble members show significant snow means it's still on the table.  Heck, with the blizzard we had last weekend, several days out, the high end model (the NAM) ended up verifiying for NYC.  Maybe in this case, they can do the same here.  Bottom line, still a ways to go before we get excited.

[Radz]

A BEAST  WITH TREMENDOUS INTENSITY - BLIZZ WRITTEN ALL OVER THIS ONE

Now this one is the one to watch! Very interesting for sure!

[frank 638]

That looks like a blizzard for all of us I hope this is true bring it

[algae888]

It looks like we have to wait till post Feb. 20th or so to see any sustained cold or snow lmo. Mjo phase 4,5 and 6 will not cut it here. Cold snap on models now likely to be transient and muted. Just look at this coming weekend. arctic cold front comes through Thursday high temperatures Friday Saturday and Sunday 35 to 40 for New York City. There is no cold air around and we shouldn't expect any until MJO heads towards phase 7/8 which is likely post February 20th. Again it doesn't mean we can't get snow but we have to be extremely fortunate for it to happen just like what happened in January. El Nino is overpowering the polar jet once again no cold air to work with.

[chief7]

888 I'm totally with you on his production

[chief7]

This prediction

[algae888]

my call for feb is temps AN. +2-4* more towards +4. near normal snow fall as I think we time out a storm or two just right. more post 15th. with regards to my above normal temps it's really very simple. by sunday feb. 7th cpk will be between +6 and +7 with the mjo in phase 4-5. not expected to hit phase 7 until 15th or later. you do the math. what will it take for cpk to ave below normal for feb. probably -3* for last 21 days. VERY UNLIKELY!!!! only hope for feb is it will probably be very active. so snow chances increase with active storm track. if we get snow who cares about temps. we shall see.
high temps forecast for cpk next 7 days...
52,49,57,45,39,39,and 38*. normal high is 40*

[amugs]

This is going to interesting to see how this play sout - tweeted out by Ventrice - Isotherm said to me in PM that when the SSW happens they can be very rapid.



@Al - it remains to be seen on this prediction - my outlook made in Nov called for BN by 1-2 * for Feb. This mini torch we will experience these first few days may hinder such a call, but I have confidence that things will shape up nicely especially seeing the info on the Strat Warming and dislodging of teh PV. MJO phase against the PV will be interesting to see what plays out but we also will have a N epo as well that will be -2 to -4 SD - that is cold.

[skinsfan1177]

I don't know what is going to to happen moving forward put hoping for snow

[sroc4]

It looks like we have to wait till post Feb. 20th or so to see any sustained cold or snow lmo. Mjo phase 4,5 and 6 will not cut it here. Cold snap on models now likely to be transient and muted. Just look at this coming weekend. arctic cold front comes through Thursday high temperatures Friday Saturday and Sunday 35 to 40 for New York City. There is no cold air around and we shouldn't expect any until MJO heads towards phase 7/8 which is likely post February 20th. Again it doesn't mean we can't get snow but we have to be extremely fortunate for it to happen just like what happened in January. El Nino is overpowering the polar jet once again no cold air to work with.

Al If I told you Feb will be +2 for the month temps but you will get another 20-30" in your back yard would you be happy or disappointed? This is not going to be like Feb of last year. The sustained cold and below normal will likely be centered to our west. We are in the battle ground between the anomalously cold temps and where the magic is going to happen. I'll take "cold shots" and several chances at Godzilla or better any day of the week and twice today than sustained cold and dry. But hey. That's me.

[sroc4]

And no I do not believe the MJO dominates the pattern at all

[skinsfan1177]

I don't bieve mjo domi,area either else silly in a strong el Nino. But the storms appear to be ots or way north. Plenty of time for change

[Joe Snow]

my call for feb is temps AN. +2-4* more towards +4. near normal snow fall as I think we time out a storm or two just right. more post 15th. with regards to my above normal temps it's really very simple. by sunday feb. 7th cpk will be between +6 and +7 with the mjo in phase 4-5. not expected to hit phase 7 until 15th or later. you do the math. what will it take for cpk to ave below normal for feb. probably -3* for last 21 days. VERY UNLIKELY!!!! only hope for feb is it will probably be very active. so snow chances increase with active storm track.  if we get snow who cares about temps. we shall see.
high temps forecast for cpk next 7 days...
52,49,57,45,39,39,and 38*. normal high is 40*

FYI if you want to have a degree symbol next to a number just type ALT + 0176 to get a degree symbol example 25 then ALT+0176 = 25°


BTW I am all for tracking some of theses storms "Make Winter Great Again"

[Frank_Wx]

my call for feb is temps AN. +2-4* more towards +4. near normal snow fall as I think we time out a storm or two just right. more post 15th. with regards to my above normal temps it's really very simple. by sunday feb. 7th cpk will be between +6 and +7 with the mjo in phase 4-5. not expected to hit phase 7 until 15th or later. you do the math. what will it take for cpk to ave below normal for feb. probably -3* for last 21 days. VERY UNLIKELY!!!! only hope for feb is it will probably be very active. so snow chances increase with active storm track.  if we get snow who cares about temps. we shall see.
high temps forecast for cpk next 7 days...
52,49,57,45,39,39,and 38*. normal high is 40*

FYI if you want to have a degree symbol next to a number just type ALT + 0176 to get a degree symbol example  25 then ALT+0176 = 25°


BTW I am all for tracking some of theses storms "Make Winter Great Again"

Thanks for the degree symbol tip.

[Math23x7]

Frank and Scott, what are your thoughts on the fact that according to this image from tropicaltidbits.com, Nino 1.2 has risen back up to +1.7?

[Radz]

my call for feb is temps AN. +2-4* more towards +4. near normal snow fall as I think we time out a storm or two just right. more post 15th. with regards to my above normal temps it's really very simple. by sunday feb. 7th cpk will be between +6 and +7 with the mjo in phase 4-5. not expected to hit phase 7 until 15th or later. you do the math. what will it take for cpk to ave below normal for feb. probably -3* for last 21 days. VERY UNLIKELY!!!! only hope for feb is it will probably be very active. so snow chances increase with active storm track.  if we get snow who cares about temps. we shall see.
high temps forecast for cpk next 7 days...
52,49,57,45,39,39,and 38*. normal high is 40*

FYI if you want to have a degree symbol next to a number just type ALT + 0176 to get a degree symbol example  25 then ALT+0176 = 25°


BTW I am all for tracking some of theses storms "Make Winter Great Again"

Or SHIFT + OPTION + 8 on a Mac

[nutleyblizzard]

6z GFS shows a big snowstorm on the 8/9th. Looks warm for coastal sections, though I would expect a trend colder as we move closer towards the event.

[frank 638]

AccuWeather has me freezing rain to sleet for Feb 9 yeah OK lol

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