Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

by **Math23x7** Tue Feb 23, 2016 12:35 pm

Frank, about a week ago, you seemed pretty confident that NYC would get the 8.8" it needs to hit 40" on the seasonal snow total. Do you still have that level of confidence going into March?

by Guest Tue Feb 23, 2016 2:23 pm

syosnow94 wrote:GFS has a GLC on March 1st. Then 2 gigantic sub 990 bombs right on the BM. One on the 3rd and the other on the 9th. Canadian and Euro both have the first cutter than not so much after.

00Z GFS now shows the cutter on March 1st. The 2nd storm threat which was on the BM on March 3rd now is a cutter tracking over Detroit. (a 600 mile move west from one run to the next) and the storm threat for 3/9 trended west and disorganized. I know this far out it means almost nothing but it is actually comical!! Shocked

by **algae888** Tue Feb 23, 2016 2:40 pm

this was euro op from sunday...
Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 28 Ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_8

this is today's op same time frame...
Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 28 Ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_6

the main theme this winter is that the models have backed off of the cold and blocking, except for Jonas and the -1* day in feb, as we moved closer in time. we can blame super el-nino as models have struggled with temps in the med-long range all winter. this winter besides Jonas was a nightmare. ranks as one of the worst in my books. actually the worst above normal snowfall year in cpk history.

by **amugs** Tue Feb 23, 2016 4:14 pm

Al a lot like 11-12 with promise in their only ti vanish before me very weenie eye!
cyclops

Unfrickin believable - the pv was to split by now and we were to have a - NAO in the means for this month as models and tele were pointing to. None of this has come to fruition, frustrating.

Now the euro and gfs say we dislodge to split the pv by March 6th ish. Really let's split it in June !!
Cutter after cutter now on LR guidance.

BTW 97-98 takes the cake for worse winters ever. No snow at all one storm in March needed by 11am and by 2pm all of it was gone , no cold and lots of rainy, gloomy days in the 40-50's range.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Feb 23, 2016 4:20 pm

amugs wrote:Al a lot like 11-12 with promise in their only ti vanish before me very weenie eye!

Unfrickin believable - the pv was to split by now and we were to have a - NAO in the means for this month as models and tele were pointing to. None of this has come to fruition, frustrating.

Now the euro and gfs say we dislodge to split the pv by March 6th ish. Really let's split it in June !!
Cutter after cutter now on LR guidance.

BTW 97-98 takes the cake for worse winters ever. No snow at all one storm in March needed by 11am and by 2pm all of it was gone , no cold and lots of rainy, gloomy days in the 40-50's range.

It's a toss up to me. As bad as this winter has been, and it looks like it's solidly on track to become the second warmest met winter in 147 years, 1997/98 and 2001/02 were actually worse. Both were mild and 2001/02 will probably keep the record as the warmest, but less snow and no Arctic intrusions makes them the top 2 worst winters of all time. This one will go down as the third worst ever IMBY.

by Guest Tue Feb 23, 2016 4:23 pm

......and I repeat. With 44" IMBY this is one of the worst winters I remember since I moved out here in 1998. 2 storms that all disappeared within 10 days (yes one was Jonas) Horrible. Bring on sunny and 60 please ASAP. I for one am done with this constant talk of threats that disappear or trend wet as we get closer. With all the scientific analysis a human could ever want, it comes back to one thing. THE "GODZILLA, or SUPER ELNINO" WHATEVER YOU WANNA CALL IT that the TV mets on TWC and NWS predicted would win out back in November. Oh well.

now you can all commence yelling at me and calling me an emotional basket case, or cliff diver or head exploder. Whatever. rabbit

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Feb 23, 2016 4:28 pm

syosnow94 wrote:......and I repeat. With 44" IMBY this is one of the worst winters I remember since I moved out here in 1998. 2 storms that all disappeared within 10 days (yes one was Jonas) Horrible. Bring on sunny and 60 please ASAP. I for one am done with this constant talk of threats that disappear or trend wet as we get closer. With all the scientific analysis a human could ever want, it comes back to one thing. THE "GODZILLA, or SUPER ELNINO" WHATEVER YOU WANNA CALL IT that the TV mets on TWC and NWS predicted would win out back in November. Oh well.

now you can all commence yelling at me and calling me an emotional basket case, or cliff diver or head exploder. Whatever.

YOU ARE AN emotional basket case, cliff diver and head exploder. AND I SHOULD BE YELLING AT YOU IN THE BANTER THREAD, sorry. Please move this conversation to there should you respond.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Feb 23, 2016 4:53 pm

syosnow94 wrote:......and I repeat. With 44" IMBY this is one of the worst winters I remember since I moved out here in 1998. 2 storms that all disappeared within 10 days (yes one was Jonas) Horrible. Bring on sunny and 60 please ASAP. I for one am done with this constant talk of threats that disappear or trend wet as we get closer. With all the scientific analysis a human could ever want, it comes back to one thing. THE "GODZILLA, or SUPER ELNINO" WHATEVER YOU WANNA CALL IT that the TV mets on TWC and NWS predicted would win out back in November. Oh well.

now you can all commence yelling at me and calling me an emotional basket case, or cliff diver or head exploder. Whatever.

How does a post like this belong in the long range thread? This is inexcusable. I'm locking this thread and starting a new one. Going forward, content that belongs in banter and is posted in a real thread will result in possible suspension from the forum.

This is clearly stated in rule #4.

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t8-rules-regulations-of-nj-strong-wx-forum

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