Re: Nov. 1st Storm Observation Thread

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Oct 31, 2014 1:52 pm

What are the winds expected to be cnj coast

by **jmanley32** Fri Oct 31, 2014 1:52 pm

Guys pray for me that I get outta my work area unscathed, we leave early because the part of the south bronx I work in isn't exactly safe. I have had stuff thrown at my car including a friggin milkshake.

by **Dunnzoo** Fri Oct 31, 2014 1:58 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:12z GGEM says bring on the rain

Big disparity in precip totals among models....GFS and NAM predict about .50" for me, while this has over an inch...but generally the fishes get the soaker

by **sroc4** Fri Oct 31, 2014 2:01 pm

GGEM has been consistent with its placement of the inverted trough and highest rain totals over that location. Pattern is ripe for that to verify give or take 20 miles.

by **jmanley32** Fri Oct 31, 2014 2:15 pm

20 miles according to GGEM would mean 0.5-0.75 for me with a shift east will be little over a inch. Will be interesting to watch this unfold and who gets what.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Oct 31, 2014 3:04 pm

I could definitely see the western parts of the HV making out snow wise with this setup. Especially the towns over 1000 feet.

by **jmanley32** Fri Oct 31, 2014 10:03 pm

Getting our first shower here, came in with a bit of a breeze, telling us that the system is on its way, whether out to sea or closer to coast we shall see.

by **jmanley32** Fri Oct 31, 2014 10:09 pm

Woah, NAM brings in alot more precip with the first and way west, more like 1-2 inches of rain.

Nov. 1st Storm Observation Thread - Page 2 Ooz_na10

by **jmanley32** Fri Oct 31, 2014 10:31 pm

thats some pretty heavy rain and def not where its been placed the past several runs. it actually coincides with a windier time so it might be possible strnger winds could get brought down in heavier
rain right? starting to thing may be gusting more like 40-45 may be 50.

Nov. 1st Storm Observation Thread - Page 2 Dbz10

Nov. 1st Storm Observation Thread - Page 2 Dbz10

by **amugs** Fri Oct 31, 2014 11:15 pm

Winds have kicked up and showers/ rain has kicked in - here we go another tick to the west as the last storm. Uuugghh this will drive me to drink if our winter rolls like this even the h5 set up was hot then cold now ??

by **jmanley32** Sat Nov 01, 2014 6:26 am

Mugs this should mkae you happy! Drive you to drink? West is good, looks like according to Euro we have two LP coming one around 7th and although its passed 240 hrs and not in reliable time frame yet it looks like a BIG coastal is setting to come up coast from the south originating around gulf coast, don't those bring us doozies? Maybe that is what accuwx was showing 60mph winds for on 9-10th.

by **sroc4** Sat Nov 01, 2014 6:26 am

46.9*F very gusty winds. Pressure 1012mb and falling

by **jmanley32** Sat Nov 01, 2014 6:33 am

46 here, seems to be a common temp this morning.

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Nov 01, 2014 8:30 am

raining at a good rate and pretty windy with some gust look to be in the jackpot and one have radar images and any updates such as will the wind pick up later on the coast

by **Dunnzoo** Sat Nov 01, 2014 9:53 am

43* and rain picking up. It's cool to see on the radar the 2 LPs developing here and in the south. Heavy band of rain heading my way. Skins and Ace are in it again!

by **algae888** Sat Nov 01, 2014 9:59 am

44 degrees breezy nasty and raw. hoping to see a few flakes tonight

by **sroc4** Sat Nov 01, 2014 10:14 am

by **Quietace** Sat Nov 01, 2014 11:00 am

Very heavy rain this morning, both in intensity and the weight of the droplets themselves.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Nov 01, 2014 11:06 am

Nov. 1st Storm Observation Thread - Page 2 Inxr1Kphla_h

Heavy rain in the state right now, especially along the coast. I'm expecting this to all clear out by later this afternoon or early evening. Parts of the jersey shore, especially southeast NJ, may see up to 2+ "

by **sroc4** Sat Nov 01, 2014 11:14 am

CMC did a good job identifying this IMO

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Nov 01, 2014 11:15 am

Yea it was one of the first to show the inverted trough idea.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Nov 01, 2014 11:19 am

Where's the snow you ask? Columbia, SC

Nov. 1st Storm Observation Thread - Page 2 Post-747-0-98397600-1414847384

See what happens when H5 closes off just off your coast. This coulda been us, but the models kept digging that arctic vort too far south.

by **jmanley32** Sat Nov 01, 2014 11:22 am

Dang would liked to seen that personally but I guess I can wait a while longer. Me to Al hoping to see some flakes later.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Nov 01, 2014 11:24 am

Just let this sink in though. SC is seeing measurable snowfall in November, when it takes us usually until December. Not even Alex in flippin VT saw measurable snow yet. SC sometimes goes an entire season without see a flake.

Mind boggling.

by **jmanley32** Sat Nov 01, 2014 11:28 am

Yes its true, and I imagine they will see some significant power outages down there will full leaves, we def do not need that. I need my computer for may things including this : ) Was scott serious about a MECS in November or was that a joke?

by **algae888** Sat Nov 01, 2014 11:44 am

all those march snows in Carolina's and Virginia. and now November. my fiancée wants to move to nc near her sister and I said no!! because I love the north east winter weather. I may have to reconsider now.lol

by **algae888** Sat Nov 01, 2014 12:04 pm

steve d says snow sleet mixing in at base of cloud cover and some reports of snow in Maryland. seems heavy radar reflections not heavy rain but showing snow/sleet mixing in. anyone in nj seeing any mixing?

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