Re: January 2013 Long Range Thread

[Frank_Wx]

The 00z GFS is seriously lost in its mid to long range. The ensembles are entirely different, as is the EURO. With the MJO progressing through phase 7, there is no way we see a cutter pattern re-appear like we have been dealing with.

[Math23x7]

Frank, with the way weather.com has raised next weeks low temperatures for NYC out of the teens and into the 20s and with some indication by some models that mild air may return by the end of next week, do you think this will be the first winter where it fails to get below 20 degrees in NYC? (22 is the lowest it's been so far)

[docstox12]

GFS for the mid range storm, 23rd, is a wide miss. What is happening is the ridge in the west is collapsing and the northern stream is not digging enough into the trough for a phase. It's amazing to me how a weak s/w can influence a ridge by that much. We need the ridge to maintain itself. This is what has been killing us all winter. With the MJO expected to remain active in 7, I think that storm still has a chance and should not be dismissed.

Well, there is a big piece of the puzzle not there that is keeping us out of the big snowstorm this year.

When I look back on 52 years of observing winter weather in the NNJ area, it is safe to say big snowstorms are relatively rare around here.There were 6 in the 60's, 2 in the 70's, 3 in the 80's, 2 in the 90's and 5 in the 'oughts".I'm talking 12 inches or more .That leaves a total of only 18 big snowstorms ( maybe 20 if I missed a few) in 52 years.So many things must come together just right.A lot of times, storms run west and we get slop or rain, or they run OTS or south like tonights low pressure.Sometimes you get dry slotted in the most promising storm set up.You appreciate the big ones when you get them because they are so rare around here.

[Frank_Wx]

Frank, with the way weather.com has raised next weeks low temperatures for NYC out of the teens and into the 20s and with some indication by some models that mild air may return by the end of next week, do you think this will be the first winter where it fails to get below 20 degrees in NYC? (22 is the lowest it's been so far)

I think NYC will get below 20 next week.

GFS for the mid range storm, 23rd, is a wide miss. What is happening is the ridge in the west is collapsing and the northern stream is not digging enough into the trough for a phase. It's amazing to me how a weak s/w can influence a ridge by that much. We need the ridge to maintain itself. This is what has been killing us all winter. With the MJO expected to remain active in 7, I think that storm still has a chance and should not be dismissed.

Well, there is a big piece of the puzzle not there that is keeping us out of the big snowstorm this year.

When I look back on 52 years of observing winter weather in the NNJ area, it is safe to say big snowstorms are relatively rare around here.There were 6 in the 60's, 2 in the 70's, 3 in the 80's, 2 in the 90's and 5 in the 'oughts".I'm talking 12 inches or more .That leaves a total of only 18 big snowstorms ( maybe 20 if I missed a few) in 52 years.So many things must come together just right.A lot of times, storms run west and we get slop or rain, or they run OTS or south like tonights low pressure.Sometimes you get dry slotted in the most promising storm set up.You appreciate the big ones when you get them because they are so rare around here.

Good post. That is very true. Amazing to think there were maybe 5 alone between 2009 and 2011.

[docstox12]

That's right, Frank, the last ten years have been a lot of fun around here for big snowstorm lovers.Hopefully, the "teens" of the 2000's will be as active as the "oughts" in the snowstorm department.

[Frank_Wx]

Very encouraging to see the latest MJO plots being taken into phase 8 by both the GFS/EURO. Even the GEFS are polar opposite of the GFS operational, which the NWS is foolishly siding with in the long range. Here are the 00z GEFS mean for the 26th storm, and the 23rd storm still needs to be watched as well for early next week. I like where things are heading.

[Frank_Wx]

00z EURO shows a Miller B around the 26th. I really like this potential, as GEFS show it as well.

[sroc4]

I agree with Frank in that we still need to watch the potential for the 22nd time frame. The teleconnections have been pretty consistent amongst all the models showing a +PNA, - or neutral NAO, and a -AO. To me the wild card would be the NAO
The predicted PNA has been the most consistent amongst the models, perfect position.
https://2img.net/r/ihimizer/img842/9217/12zallpnajan22.gif
The + NAO the GFS shows is the outlier at this time.
https://2img.net/r/ihimizer/img13/3659/12zallnaojan22.gif
-AO would indicate that if a surface low were to phase along the coast it would have plenty of cold air to work with.
https://2img.net/r/ihimizer/img23/9897/12zallaojan22.gif

The only thing I dont like about this potential is that the NAO will go from a pos state to a neutral or neg state which after reading the study on some of the historical storms that Ryan (Noreaster) posted in the Q and A thread is usually not the best scenario for a big storm to occur along the coast. However, that being said the Presidents day storm of Feb 2003 did have that NAO set up. According to that study a neg NAO rising towards neutral or even pos has historically produced the most major coastal storms.

Anyway I still think this thing will trend west over the next several days as the pieces of the puzzle begin to make there way onto the west coast and the models have more data to work with. Enough west to impact the coast is yet to be seen.

The weather will be what it wants to be...I just hope it be snowing.

[Frank_Wx]

As Doc just said, and looking at the latest GFS, I think there will be a storm on the 26th. And I think a larger one is looming around the 1st week of February

Don't say I didn't warn ya!

MJO going into phase 8. L

Boooyahh!

[skinsfan1177]

I hope so cause everytime this winter i get my hopes up it doesnt come through and its always the next one and so on. I never gave up on winter I have always been happy with just one big storm.

[Frank_Wx]

GGEM for 26th storm. It didn't have anything for the 23rd storm.

[NjWeatherGuy]

I just cant get excited about this until we get into the 4-5 day range. The GFS and NAM were different by several hundred miles for the last storm less than 48 hours to the event. These models are useless, I'm done with the long range and getting hyped up for something that will end up radically different.

[docstox12]

I just cant get excited about this until we get into the 4-5 day range. The GFS and NAM were different by several hundred miles for the last storm less than 48 hours to the event. These models are useless, I'm done with the long range and getting hyped up for something that will end up radically different.

Remember on the Channel 7 Board Bill Evans would say "Models are for guidance purposes only".Truer words were never spoken.yes, it's interesting to see what the computers spit out long range, but I never get really excited until a few hours before a projected snowstorm hits and I see the radar is totally filled without a dry slot and many hours of snow seen ahead on the said radar.

[Frank_Wx]

This isn't long range. It's under a week away. Lol

[NjWeatherGuy]

It's like exactly a week away, I hope so much that this turns out but right now it doesn't have a ton of model support and things haven't exactly worked out that well so far this winter so I think I'll just watch this for a while and start getting excited next week if it's not gone by then.

[Frank_Wx]

GFS has the snowstorm for end of next week. About a foot of snow this run. I'll take it. Lol

[docstox12]

GFS has the snowstorm for end of next week. About a foot of snow this run. I'll take it. Lol

Impressive and interesting.NWS was starting to mention something but they had rain/snow for NNJ on Friday I think.Way too far out to tell, but the models see something.I'll get excited next Thursday,LOL!

[Frank_Wx]

6z GFS was a huge hit.

I'll be working today. Will get a blog up tonight or tomorrow.

[Frank_Wx]

This is beautiful!

[Frank_Wx]

Daily MJO checkup once again...still looks great. Cold first half of February on the way...

[Noreaster]

Anyone else feel as if the only "guidance" our models have given us this year is to guide our heads into a brick wall? Geez, they have been god awful for the most part.

[Frank_Wx]

GGEM for next Friday...

Seriously, it's so hard to resist looking at models when you're desperate for snow.

[Snow88]

Euro has a miller A for next weekend

[Snow88]

Lastest MJO plots

[Frank_Wx]

Wow those are nice as heck.

I'll be away most of the day. Hopefully by Monday, we'll have a storm to track for the end of next week.

[Math23x7]

Frank, I know the Euro did show a nice coastal low for late next week, but according to today's teleconnections, while the PNA will be positive at that time, the NAO and AO will be positive. Plus, just think of all the potential snowstorms that brought a lot of bark for NYC, but little to no bite. But we'll see as time progresses

[amugs]

Guys, now that the sorm - if you'd like to call it that - iso ver anyone have any info on Mon-Mon nights event? I see a possible icy mix to rain or snow to ice event I am hearing from the mets and on other forums. What's the info on this timeframe? Thanks. Mugs

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