February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Just read NWS, this is now mostly all rain as Frank had on the banner the last few days.Frank nailed it.From NWS 2 days ago 3 to 7 inches, now they say 1/2 inch! BUSTED! NEXT PLEASE!

What he said.

How disappointing is that? No snow for the average Joe. Again.

So do we get a backend surprise? 850s say yes. Do we trust that or the sfc line haha?

aiannone wrote:So do we get a backend surprise? 850s say yes. Do we trust that or the sfc line haha?

No. All of the isentropic lift, which will be the primary forcing mechanism this time, will be ahead of the front. Whatever we get on the front end will be it, aside from any lagging light snow showers. I'm still suspicious of this system, as time and time again we have seen the precip shut down before any true changeover of significance occurs in events like this one, and still think modeling is too bearish on the warmth (especially if the secondary development pops in line with how I envision(ed) it, but I'm clearly on my own island. NOT to be confused with Revis Island. However, my preliminary analysis from several days ago was not too far off, and given the lack of time that I've had to forecast this event and others, am not going to beat myself up about it. We get what we get.

Pretty healthy radar currently, I'd normally be a happy camper right about now! Not sure what the surface reports are indicating, or if anything is reaching the ground, but still holding out hope to see some snow here (imb) before the change over once the precip moves in...

Well, since this is a busy travel day for a lot of people visiting friends for the game, I hope it starts as rain and ends as rain so people can travel safely. Its going to be a general rain event anyway.

Moderate snow in Flemington but 36 degrees. Won't last long.

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Moderate snow in Flemington but 36 degrees. Won't last long.

Disagree. The thermal profile is sufficiently cold enough to support snow for at least period of time before the change. As of now, my suspicions about this system are being shown to have merit. Everybody north and west of Point Pleasant should experience a "surprise accumulation" of snow.

Unfortunately it’s 41 here on the island. DP is close to 40. Not going to snow here

rb924119 wrote:

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Moderate snow in Flemington but 36 degrees. Won't last long.

Disagree. The thermal profile is sufficiently cold enough to support snow for at least period of time before the change. As of now, my suspicions about this system are being shown to have merit. Everybody north and west of Point Pleasant should experience a "surprise accumulation" of snow.

Yeah rb 850 s are still plenty cold precipitation knocking on the door for the city could see a surprise little snow before the changeover as I said the other day we needed precipitation to get here as quickly as possible to have any chance of snow on the front end

aiannone wrote:Unfortunately it’s 41 here on the island. DP is close to 40. Not going to snow here

Alex I'm at 38 with a dew point of 20 if precipitation comes in the next few hours I should be snow before the changeover according to radar precip knocking on my door

I also find it funny how nothing is picking up on the fact that our secondary low has already developed in response to the southern stream energy over eastern S.C. This was something I mentioned way back in my initial analysis of this system as part of the reason why I believed the thermal profiles were being depicted to be much too warm. Anyway, gonna be interesting to see how that initial analysis holds up, but at least as of now, I think most of us are going turn frowns upside down, even if only for a little while

Current 850:


Current 925

Still moderate snow. No accumulation but very pretty. Flakes getting bigger. Had been 35, went done to 33, now back to 35.

It’s amazing how quickly the arctic air gets eroded on the coast. Dews were in the teens nearly 12 hours ago with a high of 27 yesterday. Now temp 45 and dew of 45! SAD!

It's snowing? 40.1

Light snow 37.8°

Vinnydula wrote:It's snowing? 40.1

You’re snowing at 40.1?

Dropped now to 39.8 and yes its snowing

light snow down to 36* dp up to 29*.

Vinnydula wrote:Dropped now to 39.8 and yes its snowing

What is everyone’s dew point?

aiannone wrote:

Vinnydula wrote:It's snowing? 40.1

You’re snowing at 40.1?

alex I have seen snow with temps as high as the mid 40's. as long as it is cold enough aloft it will snow with temps at 40*

sleeting now with some snow mixed in. this will not last long however.

algae888 wrote:

aiannone wrote:

Vinnydula wrote:It's snowing? 40.1

You’re snowing at 40.1?

alex I have seen snow with temps as high as the mid 40's. as long as it is cold enough aloft it will snow with temps at 40*

Interesting. I’ll see what it does in my area when the precip moves in. Right now I’m getting sunny breaks, which is spiking temps lol

40.5 all snow atm

Light rain occasional mixed with wet snow . Getting tired of snow to rain storms

frank 638 wrote:Light rain occasional mixed with wet snow . Getting tired of snow to rain storms

frank we haven't had one snow to rain event yet this year. today and wens will be our first two.