Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

[skinsfan1177]

In rb we trust

[jmanley32]

Rb what did the sref show? Nam still not in great range yet. Nhc says it will merge the front.

[amugs]

The trough is too late to capture the storm from tjis depiction

[amugs]

Here is one forecast . I think it is just Atlantic or Cape May counties that see these effects after looking at thebmaps. I can be wrong here but we needed the storm to be as modelled and form later so we get a capture or phase.

[rb924119]

Here's the key: If the circulation passes WEST of Hatteras, we deal with it. If it passes EAST of Hatteras, Jman can only hopelessly wave to it from the beach somewhere. This has to do with two factors; the evolution of the synoptic environment around Irma, and the structure of the SSTs.

[amugs]

Flooding in Houston is dire as NWS issued a warning about an hour or so ago stating all residents in a flooding area to "get to the highest floor of the building/structure. If that is not high enough get on the roof!" Holy smokes!! I have never see this before in my life. That highway signs are 20' plus  look at this picture.

[amugs]

Here's the key: If the circulation passes WEST of Hatteras, we deal with it. If it passes EAST of Hatteras, Jman can only hopelessly wave to it from the beach somewhere. This has to do with two factors; the evolution of the synoptic environment around Irma, and the structure of the SSTs

Got it my man. I thought we needed a capture by the trough to get it up here. So almost a floyd esque track is best to get a trop cyclone up this way. I still would rather it form later and get the trough in position to pull it back. 
Tha ks for the professional and expertise info Ray. 
I have a lot if friends who live at the shore who are saying to me your nuts now about the effects of a trop disturbance for them. 
We'll know more by 0Z tonight on the track?

[rb924119]

Here is one forecast . I think it is just Atlantic or Cape May counties that see these effects after looking at thebmaps. I can be wrong here but we needed the storm to be as modelled and form later so we get a capture or phase.

Nice map!!!

[rb924119]

Here's the key: If the circulation passes WEST of Hatteras, we deal with it. If it passes EAST of Hatteras, Jman can only hopelessly wave to it from the beach somewhere. This has to do with two factors; the evolution of the synoptic environment around Irma, and the structure of the SSTs

Got it my man. I thought we needed a capture by the trough to get it up here. So almost a floyd esque track is best to get a trop cyclone up this way. I still would rather it form later and get the trough in position to pull it back. 
Tha ks for the professional and expertise info Ray. 
I have a lot if friends who live at the shore who are saying to me your nuts now about the effects of a trop disturbance for them. 
We'll know more by 0Z tonight on the track?

Well, not a full capture, because as soon as it does capture the flow flattens out as the trough expands to incorporate its new addition. The trough is not potent enough maintain its dominance, and once Irma takes over, that becomes the dominant feature. We just need the interplay between diabatic heat release and Rossby wave amplification to work constructively enough to tilt the trough axis negative enough to change the steering flow to more southerly as opposed to southwesterly or west-west-southwesterly. But yes, a Floyd track is a good analog, as is Irene, with respect to tracks. As for knowing more, that's anybody's guess lol I would imagine once the circulation gets over water and organizes it will help. It's still quite broad because it's over land right now, so the models can't initialize the exact placement as well.

[rb924119]

And mugs, your friends aren't wrong ahahaha apparently news networks are just starting to mention the system now, acoording to my parents who down on LBI this week. They said News 12 NJ finally mentioned it, but that it was going well out to sea.

[rb924119]

GFS 200 miles NW babayyyyyy!!!!!!!!! TICCKKKKKKK TICK-TICKKKKKKKKK TICK-TICKKKKKKKKKKK lmao I HAVE HOPE!!!!! I now know how horse betters feel ahahaha

[rb924119]

Arguably should have come even further given upper levels and SSTs, but I'll take it

[SoulSingMG]

GFS 200 miles NW babayyyyyy!!!!!!!!! TICCKKKKKKK TICK-TICKKKKKKKKK TICK-TICKKKKKKKKKKK lmao I HAVE HOPE!!!!! I now know how horse betters feel ahahaha

Hey y'all, hope you're all having a great summer! I've been quietly following along.

RB, you're hysterical lol. You realllllly believe in this system, don't you

[weatherwatchermom]

rb...following......you are doing a great job...!! what time frame are we looking at this to be if it happens...

[EnyapWeather]

Also for rb, do you think this has the potential to be a track like Irene?

[Dtone]

Strong language from NWS

This event is unprecedented & all impacts are unknown & beyond anything experienced. Follow orders from officials to ensure safety. #Harvey pic.twitter.com/IjpWLey1h8

— NWS (@NWS) August 27, 2017

[weatherwatchermom]

Strong language from NWS

This event is unprecedented & all impacts are unknown & beyond anything experienced. Follow orders from officials to ensure safety. #Harvey pic.twitter.com/IjpWLey1h8

— NWS (@NWS) August 27, 2017

Dtone.absolutely horrifying..what is unfolding in Texas!!

[rb924119]

I will answer all of your questions in a little while as I have errands to run, BUT..........12z GFS Ensembles support the Op's trend to the northwest strongly, with a heavy lean further northwest along the Delmarva

[amugs]

Here she comes wish it were Tuesay to be honest

[amugs]

Houston Fire Dept put out a dire merge ny notice for ANYONE WITH BOATS OR JET SKIS OR ANY OTHER WATER VEHICLE LESS TO HELP. There are going to be scores of drownings god help those folks. 
3kn NAM is showing region that already have almost 2 feet of rain to get another 2 feet more plus

[SoulSingMG]

Houston Fire Dept put out a dire merge ny notice for ANYONE WITH BOATS OR JET SKIS OR ANY OTHER WATER VEHICLE LESS TO HELP. There are going to be scores of drownings god help those folks. 
3kn NAM is showing region that already have almost 2 feet of rain to get another 2 feet more plus

I was watching the radar all night and couldn't believe the feeder band that literally trained for HOURS over Houston with 4" an hour rates. I cannot believe they are expecting double of what they have already received in rainfall. It's unimaginable.

[amugs]

[rb924119]

Jman check your NHC outlook now lol 70% of depression or storm within the next 24 hrs. Rapid feedback has commenced.

[Sanchize06]

18z GFS definitely more NW again from 12z. Not much precip in the area though

[aiannone]

18z GFS nudged west again

[skinsfan1177]

18z GFS definitely more NW again from 12z. Not much precip in the area though

Getting interesting

[skinsfan1177]

RGEM

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