Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:03 pm

I dunno most people on tropics forums some are mets feel 92L and the other wave will dissipate soon and all will be quiet for now, Harvey may be the only thing that is going on. What you guys think, NHC says the chances of 92L developing are diminishing.

Well wait now 18z GFS has a system develop off SE coast at he 264, I cannot follow where it comes from if its 92L or something else. Quite A bit later than CMC in time frame if it is 92L.

by **Snow88** Fri Aug 18, 2017 9:43 pm

GFS now shows 92L

Getting interesting

by **weatherwatchermom** Fri Aug 18, 2017 9:43 pm

aiannone wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:

oh boy....listen a little confused..which wave is this one? tia

The one behind Harvey

thank you...I took my eye off the ball so to speak and got confused..have a great weekend!

by EnyapWeather Fri Aug 18, 2017 11:11 pm

12z CMC still has a hurricane hitting around Massachusetts.

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 19, 2017 12:37 am

All I am going to say is dayumm 00z CMC, and thats without 93L being close at all. SO I guess like rb said there are other ways for this system to come in close, even retrograde. GFS is also hinting at something general area but no intensity.

I will say time frame IS moving up now back, so the CMC has also been consistent with the general time frame for a possible system around 28th, sooner further south.

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 19, 2017 12:46 am

still fighting, nice flareup.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/imagery/rbtop-animated.gif

by **Snow88** Sat Aug 19, 2017 9:53 am

Chances down to 40% in latest NHC discussion.

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 19, 2017 11:10 am

Yeah I'm not sure what to expect. Maybe gfs and euro got this. As we know cmc has been known to make many a phantom storms.

by **algae888** Sat Aug 19, 2017 12:37 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Yeah I'm not sure what to expect. Maybe gfs and euro got this. As we know cmc has been known to make many a phantom storms.

Jon from my analysis on Wednesday I said that there will not be any East Coast tropical system for the next 10 days which takes us to about the 27th of August. That is still pretty much a lock. While I do not think 92l will develop anytime soon its remnants will be somewhere along the Florida coast around that time and may interact with the trough that's pulling out. Two things will happen in my opinion one a system forms and gets caught up with the trough and goes out to sea or the system stalls and gets caught in nowhere land intensifies and affects the East Coast sometime around the 28th or the next few days. Interesting today to see the GFS show a system form along the cold front with the exiting trough. still something to watch but more so for the week of the 28th going forward. The trough that's going to enter the East Coast this week is no joke. no system will be able to form or penetrate that.

by **algae888** Sat Aug 19, 2017 12:43 pm

As for Harvey the CMC was very wrong with it. The last few days it had it moving just south of Jamaica. Now all the models carried into Central America. There was no way Harvey was going to hit anywhere close to the East Coast or even the northern Caribbean islands as the center of the high pressure was over the southeast and it would steer it underneath it. So yeah take the CMC with a grain of salt especially when it has three tropical systems at one time very close to each other

by **Snow88** Sat Aug 19, 2017 12:46 pm

GFS now develops a low but stays way offshore

CMC still shows a big storm near the coast but on this run, it's near the benchmark

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017081912&fh=234&xpos=0&ypos=1115

by **Snow88** Sat Aug 19, 2017 12:47 pm

algae888 wrote:As for Harvey the CMC was very wrong with it. The last few days it had it moving just south of Jamaica. Now all the models carried into Central America. There was no way Harvey was going to hit anywhere close to the East Coast or even the northern Caribbean islands as the center of the high pressure was over the southeast and it would steer it underneath it. So yeah take the CMC with a grain of salt especially when it has three tropical systems at one time very close to each other

It was great with Gert

by **Snow88** Sat Aug 19, 2017 3:11 pm

Euro has nothing in regards to 92L

by **rb924119** Sat Aug 19, 2017 5:57 pm

There will be no video, as it looks like what I thought was going to happen with 93L and the general synoptic pattern is not shaping up, and that will end up OTS. What we should still pay very close attention, to, however, is the progression of 92L and how it interacts once north of the Bahamas (just like Gert). Its interaction with a hung up cold front could lead to a very similar situation as with what happened with Gert, though a bit closer to the mainland U.S. as it takes time to organize itself, miss the first trough that ever so slowly lifts out, and organizes in time to catch the window beneath a ridge as a second trough begins diving southeastward out of Canada. I will continue to watch this just in case, but my initial concern for 93L is pretty much gone, with hesitation still residing for the chance of 92L.

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 19, 2017 8:20 pm

oh well no surprise there, the cmc needs to cut it out been quite a few runs now.

by **frank 638** Sun Aug 20, 2017 9:34 am

We had some effect from tropical storm Harvey with some rain and wind even though the storm was far away from Aruba but nothing crazy

by **Snow88** Sun Aug 20, 2017 9:38 am

CMC still has 92L becoming strong

GFS and Euro are catching on

Will the CMC lead the pack?

by EnyapWeather Sun Aug 20, 2017 10:37 am

CMC all the way!

by **Snow88** Sun Aug 20, 2017 12:45 pm

GFS develops a strong storm but stays well offshore

CMC hits SE Florida and then rides just offshore and then goes OTS

by **jmanley32** Sun Aug 20, 2017 1:54 pm

Cmc caught on first. Now just how far offshore does it stay or does it hit us.

by **jmanley32** Sun Aug 20, 2017 9:39 pm

will be a interesting next 7 days or so gfs cmc and euro develop 92L, question is if it meanders down south past 27th/28th will it come closer to the coast or does it go OTS, like GErt.

by **jmanley32** Mon Aug 21, 2017 2:21 pm

cmc still having 92l hit the coast and graze us, gfs goes ots elongated system. chances have been upped a bit and harvey looks to regenerate. Now Al said after the 28th systems would have achance at coming closer in I think, if the CMC is right then I guess conditions at H5 would support a closer to or even landfall? Or is the GFS more right?

by **algae888** Mon Aug 21, 2017 5:41 pm

jmanley32 wrote:cmc still having 92l hit the coast and graze us, gfs goes ots elongated system. chances have been upped a bit and harvey looks to regenerate. Now Al said after the 28th systems would have achance at coming closer in I think, if the CMC is right then I guess conditions at H5 would support a closer to or even landfall? Or is the GFS more right?

Jon first of all the CMC has been wrong with both Harvey and 92 l. A few days ago it had 92l as a tropical system already which it clearly is not. I'm not even certain that it's 92l that develops off the Florida coast as most of the models have a system developing there now around Sunday or Monday of next week. A system forms along a cold front stalled out along the east coast again not sure if that's 92l. Still a lot of uncertainty about what happens next week. Right now the odds favor a week system that goes out to sea. What may be more interesting is what happens to the remnants of Harvey as the models have it hitting southern Texas and then heading Northeast. take a look at today's Euro.

by **sroc4** Mon Aug 21, 2017 5:59 pm

algae888 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:cmc still having 92l hit the coast and graze us, gfs goes ots elongated system. chances have been upped a bit and harvey looks to regenerate. Now Al said after the 28th systems would have achance at coming closer in I think, if the CMC is right then I guess conditions at H5 would support a closer to or even landfall? Or is the GFS more right?
Jon first of all the CMC has been wrong with both Harvey and 92 l. A few days ago it had 92l as a tropical system already which it clearly is not. I'm not even certain that it's 92l that develops off the Florida coast as most of the models have a system developing there now around Sunday or Monday of next week. A system forms along a cold front stalled out along the east coast again not sure if that's 92l. Still a lot of uncertainty about what happens next week. Right now the odds favor a week system that goes out to sea. What may be more interesting is what happens to the remnants of Harvey as the models have it hitting southern Texas and then heading Northeast. take a look at today's Euro.

Do not sleep on 92L. It just hovers over the SE around Fla for like 2-3 days before a front drops in and sort of pulls the rip cord on the engine if you will. There is def an escape route OTS for 92L beyond day 4, but beware, the Euro looks like it wants to lift the trough out and leave a piece behind and back it up into the mid west. Harvey could be a key player in this. Nothing is even remotely set in stone with either system. It would not take much of a change at 500mb to put more ridge over the NE which could allow 92L or whatever it is named at that time to come back west. If you look at the surface maps there is already a HP system sitting over the NE.

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 11 Ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_8

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 11 Ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_8

by **rb924119** Mon Aug 21, 2017 6:45 pm

I'm definitely not sleeping on 92L, either, Scott (see my last post from a few days ago). For kicks, you see how freakin' close the 18z GFS Op was to something, dare I say, HISTORIC for the East Coast????

by **jmanley32** Mon Aug 21, 2017 6:59 pm

rb924119 wrote:I'm definitely not sleeping on 92L, either, Scott (see my last post from a few days ago). For kicks, you see how freakin' close the 18z GFS Op was to something, dare I say, HISTORIC for the East Coast????

wow if harvey and the ec system had met up that would have been a historic storm. def go interesting to watch, amazing a system in texas is key to a ec storm. rb dont say hostoric lol. u got the last part wrong lol, totally kidding. keep us poated. al all valid points and same sroc agree no sleeping on 92l, cmc has it stall.

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