March 14, 2017 Storm In Review

devsman wrote:Just got to work in Flushing Queens. These roads are the worst of seen here in any storm. I had to park half mile away from my school. Every car is trapped in ice. Deblasio did a horrible job. Cars are stranded in the street. Bad bad job NYC.

Yeah it is bad. To be fair I think its more the nature of sleet compared to snow then anything the city could of done.
Just b/c there wasn't epic snow totals closer to the coast doesn't mean it wasn't a impactful storm. I would of had a easier time with 2 feet of pure snow than a foot of sleet. It sucks.
I have co workers from LI and they were shocked at the acclumations once they crossed the Whitestone.

billg315 wrote:I posted a story in banter, because I think its a better place for the discussion. But I would love to get people's thoughts/reactions because I found it stunning. The story I posted in Banter is an A.P. story where the NWS acknowledges thinking their prediction was overdone Monday afternoon, but not adjusting the totals downward because they wanted people to be prepared anyway. It's the first time I remember the NWS admitting they left a forecast out there they didn't really believe in, to achieve a "preparedness" goal. I submit, (and I really do respect these guys and the tough work they do) that for their credibility alone, as well as scientific honesty, this was a mistake.

Agree it was a mistake. The purpose of an accurate forecast is to gain the trust of the general public. When the next storm comes around, maybe less people will take their forecast seriously. Don't these guys have a way to measure their performance? If, say, at the end of the year you have an 85% accuracy but your goal is 90%, then you're hurting yourself personally too. I just do not understand that logic.

34.2" here just west of Binghamton, NY. Incredible. Snowiest storm on record here and we are 3.7" away from the snowiest winter on record!

aiannone wrote:34.2" here just west of Binghamton, NY. Incredible. Snowiest storm on record here and we are 3.7" away from the snowiest winter on record!

What's the total there for the winter so far. I know they average in the 80's for the season so to be near a record you must be well past 100?

The Theme Song for your files Frank

Click Me !!!

With a "shout out" to Alex in Binghampton !!!

This graphic is kinda telling

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

aiannone wrote:34.2" here just west of Binghamton, NY. Incredible. Snowiest storm on record here and we are 3.7" away from the snowiest winter on record!

What's the total there for the winter so far. I know they average in the 80's for the season so to be near a record you must be well past 100?

127.7". Record for snowiest winter is 131.3" set in 1993-1994

Frank_Wx wrote:This graphic is kinda telling

Amazing so many missed this, models included. Except of course that POS the NAM, which it seems has done pretty well out on it's own early over the past couple of years.

I keep thinking of the poor gullible person in Red Sox Suck that may have looked at the HRRR the day before and saw the 44 inches over their house who might have believed it, then to end up with 6 inches, wow talk about a let down.

aiannone wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

aiannone wrote:34.2" here just west of Binghamton, NY. Incredible. Snowiest storm on record here and we are 3.7" away from the snowiest winter on record!

What's the total there for the winter so far. I know they average in the 80's for the season so to be near a record you must be well past 100?

127.7". Record for snowiest winter is 131.3" set in 1993-1994

I don't want to jinx it and say that looks like a lock, so I won't.

This little purple blob RUINED a great storm due to that Low closing off:

Commenting from an earlier post Sroc made, if we had a -NAO, not only would the storm of been a slower mover, but the polar jet would have had ample time to catch up with the other streams. I know this is throwing salt in the wound who missed out with the brunt of the storm (myself included), but think about it. A slow moving colder version triple phased bomb. I can imagine a snow map of 18-24 inches in DC, climbing to 2-3 feet in philly/south Jersey, 3 feet+ north Jersey/ NYC/LI, 4 feet+ New England.

Frank_Wx wrote:This graphic is kinda telling

Not to pat myself on the back because I don't have the scientific knowledge that you guys do BUT.....Leading up to the storm I actually posted in response to one of Amugs's posts that we don't want the upper low diving in to be too strong because it would pull the LP too close to the coast and therefore create a warm solution. Maybe Math or one of the mods could look this up. Otherwise maybe tonight I can look.

nutleyblizzard wrote:Commenting from an earlier post Sroc made, if we had a -NAO, not only would the storm of been a slower mover, but the polar jet would have had ample time to catch up with the other streams. I know this is throwing salt in the wound who missed out with the brunt of the storm (myself included), but think about it. A slow moving colder version triple phased bomb. I can imagine a snow map of 18-24 inches in DC, climbing to 2-3 feet in philly/south Jersey, 3 feet+ north Jersey/ NYC/LI, 4 feet+ New England.

I hope I get to see this storm in my lifetime.

Scullybutcher wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:Commenting from an earlier post Sroc made, if we had a -NAO, not only would the storm of been a slower mover, but the polar jet would have had ample time to catch up with the other streams. I know this is throwing salt in the wound who missed out with the brunt of the storm (myself included), but think about it. A slow moving colder version triple phased bomb. I can imagine a snow map of 18-24 inches in DC, climbing to 2-3 feet in philly/south Jersey, 3 feet+ north Jersey/ NYC/LI, 4 feet+ New England.

I hope I get to see this storm in my lifetime.

That's my dream storm. We were just missing the one key ingredient- blocking. Ive got a feeling one day hopefully soon we will.

Frank_Wx wrote:This graphic is kinda telling

I'm not sure I agree with the drawn in lines of this graphic. I can understand the concept but this is not a defined closed low. I think it is a matter of the northern piece not in sink with the PAC and ST piece. That's just my opinion. The red line is depicting what? The fully phased trough? Again I don't believe that.

nutleyblizzard wrote:Commenting from an earlier post Sroc made, if we had a -NAO, not only would the storm of been a slower mover, but the polar jet would have had ample time to catch up with the other streams. I know this is throwing salt in the wound who missed out with the brunt of the storm (myself included), but think about it. A slow moving colder version triple phased bomb. I can imagine a snow map of 18-24 inches in DC, climbing to 2-3 feet in philly/south Jersey, 3 feet+ north Jersey/ NYC/LI, 4 feet+ New England.

The -NAO was teh key that models were showing even three days prior and it retrograded on us. The wave 2 was to be and was modeled as a 50/50 LP. Both of these did not come to fruition - IF we had one or the other (rather the 50/50 IMO) this woudl have been a longer duration event as you say Nuts. WE maybe able to pull one of these scenarios off in the upcoming decade. Heck look at teh all teh blizzard criteria storm the tri state area has been affected by since 2009? Seven - Dec 2009, Boxer Day 2010 (names non existent then), Jan 24-25(?) 2011, Nemo, Juno, Jonas and Stella. I thought 78 - 83 (77, 78 and 83)was a good stretch but this is one the best.

Anyway, I recieved 13.0" from the storm so i am not complaining - IF it did not go over to sleet I woudl have had 18-20" beggars cant be choosers!

Despite the bust on the coast, you nailed the interior Frank!
20" here.

Judging from this map, it looks like RB left his job in Fishkill where they had 26 inches to go home to NEPA where they had 26.5 inches. So I suppose he made the right decision? What the snowchoholic won't do for a 1/2 inch of snow. We're a sick bunch.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Judging from this map, it looks like RB left his job in Fishkill where they had 26 inches to go home to NEPA where they had 26.5 inches. So I suppose he made the right decision? What the snowchoholic won't do for a 1/2 inch of snow. We're a sick bunch.

frank you done a great job on this nor easter i know its not easy when it comes to nor easter esp blizzards or snowstorms i would not take the blame this why i trust you when it comes to weather thank you frank for all your hardwork you do you are the best .
also i just want say thank u to sroc docstox jmanley and many more for all your hardwork you do .

CP PRICELESS!!! Above post.

Frank,
 Awesome job. Was right along with u, Armondo  amd others on this storm. Heck not the 1st time a stirm has thrown a last minute curve and it won't be the last. Many variables that can happen with these intense. Great job kid and onto the next one.
The afternoon chat was great and anytime we chat it is great and means a big storm.
We learn from Big Momma and always will.
Thanks for everyone input here and sharing of information.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Judging from this map, it looks like RB left his job in Fishkill where they had 26 inches to go home to NEPA where they had 26.5 inches. So I suppose he made the right decision? What the snowchoholic won't do for a 1/2 inch of snow. We're a sick bunch.

Friggin' HILARIOUS.Coffee spit out worthy.

Hey   I been thinking of you Doc and Cp   Got a big kick out your excitement   It been quite awhile for a big one   Can you imagine if it was to kick 50 miles east   The whole I95 would had 30   I still thing we will have couple more plowable systems

oldtimer wrote:Hey   I been thinking of you Doc and Cp   Got a big kick out your excitement   It been quite awhile for a big one   Can you imagine if it was to kick 50 miles east   The whole I95 would had 30   I still thing we will have couple more plowable systems  

OK, Oldtimer, I'm with you.We might have one this weekend up here and it sure stays cold through next week.Might be another in the wings before the April showers hit.

Cp, Fishkill didn't get that much, even though I had people try to tell me that they had anywhere from 30-35" here and in immediate areas. Standing next to virgin snow yesterday when I returned to my apartment was well shy of where it was when I left my parents', where I sticked 24" at 8pm the previous evening. However, it seemed much deeper than that. I didn't think I was so short that two feet comes halfway up my thighs, but rulers don't tend to lie too much, even though we would all like them to at times hahaha Maybe compaction had already started to occur, even though we were still accumulating snow at that time. Neighbors, well, really people right down the road, told my dad that they measured 27", which certainly substantiates my thinking that the appearance was over two feet, but I cannot confirm those measurements. Here, though, in Fishkill, I'd say they had about 18-22" at my apartment, as it changed over to sleet and even rain here for a bit (confirmation from multiple people). However, I am still upset that parts of PA in the northern tier and central NY had 30-40; that would have been epic. To be complaining about 40" versus 24 or 27" might be a symptom of advanced stages of Snowaholicism, as observations of such reactions are highly infrequent. Maybe our resident expert on this disease can diagnose me?? Either way, it was a wonderful storm minus the fact that thundersnow STILL manages to elude me.

To more important points, and mainly Frank, I would certainly not call this a "disappointing forecast". First off, you, myself, and the rest of our long range crew scoped this from YARD, with (I believe) Tom and Armando leading the way SEVERAL WEEKS in advance. Inside of ten days, that's when you, myself, Scott, Mugs, and Al(gae) started to add our opinions to the discussion as well. As far as I know, WE WERE THE ONLY ONES EVEN ALLUDING TO THE RETURN OF WINTER EVEN WITHIN SEVEN TO TEN DAYS BEFORE THE EVENT!!! That HAS to count for something. Just the ability to highlight a three or four day stretch and say "yup, we really like this period for a potential winter storm" from ten or more days out is remarkable, and I think it deserves to be recognized. Secondly, you went with a call that supported YOUR own reasoning. YOU picked a storm track, YOU picked the QPF (which, btw, you kicked my arse with, seeing as though widespread totals of 30"+ were achieved across the northern tier of PA and central NY, something I didn't think was going to be possible, so yet another hat tip to you). YOU DIDN'T let the models lead you blindly. As you always do, you had methods behind your madness; you weren't just blindly following, like I think many other forecasters were. Having reasons for what you forecast makes learning from them all the easier, because you can identify the pieces that didn't fall into place and keep those lessons stored for another storm, which you did, and is yet ANOTHER success. You think all of these TV mets who were fiercely defending why they got it wrong have done this same analysis? Not even close. Their hands have been washed and they've moved right along without breaking stride, because all they do is follow guidance. You managed to turn this into a learning experience for everybody, and there is NEVER a disappointment in learning. How many have you gotten right in your career (this season) compared to wrong? Yeah, that's what I thought Keep on keeping on, buddy, because you're an EXCELLENT forecaster; a few "disappointing" forecasts don't change that. We're all human and none of us are perfect. By the way, at least you weren't insisting that this storm wasn't happening and watch it then proceed to snow over a foot for most of the coast like this idiot did earlier in the season......THAT was a disappointing forecast

And since this is a storm review, I should post what turned out to be the only forecast I could provide for this event because of my internet complications combined with my schedule. Posted mid-day Monday:

Ok, sorry everybody but I DO NOT have time for a video right now. However, here is my overdue First Call:





Start: 11pm tonight to 3am tomorrow, for most, a couple hours before and after sunrise across southern and central New England.
End: Tuesday afternoon to evening, depending on where you are (, early-afternoon coastal plain), late-afternoon eastern Pa/NY, evening rest of New England)

See the maps for the initial thoughts above, but I generally followed a blend of the NAM, SREF, RGEM, UKMET, and EURO suites, although with much less QPF. Unfortunately, I do not have time to go into detail as to why I chose these models and backed off on QPF, but the lack of confluence to the northeast of our system will allow this to be in and out in roughly 12 hours. To get more than 2 feet out of it in that time will be very tough in my opinion, even with ratios, when you take into account time lost to saturate the column and the winding down of the snowfall toward the end. That said, this will still be a very impactful system with extremely heavy snowfall rates at times, making travel nearly impossible, and lowering visibilities to near zero even without any help from wind. As you can see, though, I am expecting the surge of warm air to win out at least for a time along and east of the I-95 corridor. I have several reasons for this, but I do not have time to explain now. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is also expected with astronomical high tides overlapping with the wind and 2-4' storm surge, so coastal communities should be prepared for that. Also. beach erosion will be bad yet again. Sorry for the lack of a post, but I have to get ready for work! Enjoy your afternoons, everybody, and I will return this evening for continued discussion and any updates to my first call!!

Had I been able to issue a Final Call, (yeah, hind sight is 20/20 and I know it's easy to say something after it happens, but please take my word for it), I know that I would have verified better, as I would have increased my max values similarly to Frank's, tightened up my coastal gradient, and likely shifted things a little further westward, since I continued to favor the coastal hugger idea and just would have tweaked lines/numbers. However, this was what I issued to the public, so this is what I'm grading on. I busted too. My orange shading of winds should have extended further west to include much of NJ and more of the LHV/southern New England. My p-type forecast was pretty good, with only a minor northwestward shift needed to verify. My snowfall forecast was much too low for the northern tier of PA and central NY, should have expanded further northwestward, and my coastal snowfall gradient should have been tighter. Again, I feel confident that I would have made most of these changes if a final call was issued, but it wasn't, so even my publicly issued forecast, which was largely west-based with the low track, busted. I was also WAY OFF with my expected duration, as this lasted closer to 18-20 hours for many, rather than 12. I'm right there with you, Frank.