Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:05 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Ehh I think 00z will be much better, OR this just will not be handled right until the last minute for better or for worse. Nowcast anyone?

I wish I could be on the positive train right now J, I do. But it's looking more and more progressive a system by the run. I'd say we need a miracle to get a foot in NYC metro. IMHO! :-)

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:05 pm

So Frank, sroc, rb why the bad trend again at 18z? I know this is kinda banter but this back and forth is tiring me out lol, and its big swings not little ones like a inch or two or huge mile changes.

by Guest Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:06 pm

Possible dumb question here, but is it the pair of highs in Canada and the midwest that sort of bottle up the system before escorting it off to the east?

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:08 pm

Cantore & Seidel are "tag-teaming" it from, you guessed it: District of Columbia

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:09 pm

Jman there hasnt been much of a trend. GFS has gone a little south. NAM has pretty much held but maybe a tick south but buries most in game. Still lots of time left, hearing 18z RGEM looks good.

by **oldtimer** Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:10 pm

CM What needs to happen to get some of that 3' predicted for DC for five days to get up here Most of the members on here won't see 12"

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:15 pm

oldtimer wrote:CM What needs to happen to get some of that 3' predicted for DC for five days to get up here Most of the members on here won't see 12"

Wish it would happen but the problem is where its progged to close off and stall. Was previously more like right off DE which is why PA was originally in the buried spot, now its shifted a little south to stall off S/MD and VA which puts the stalling bands over DC and NOVA. We would want it to occlude off the NJ coast and basically sit off ACY...

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:22 pm

Steve D fwiw, a little bold imo at this juncture..

https://nynjpaweather.com/public/2016/01/20/storm-impacts-forecast-for-january-23-24-2016/

by **RJB8525** Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:27 pm

I'm not feeling confident about NNJ getting anything more than 5

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:28 pm

Im not confident making any call right now besides im pretty confident DC will see 12"+

by **RJB8525** Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:30 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Im not confident making any call right now besides im pretty confident DC will see 12"+

That might be the only given lol

by **skinsfan1177** Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:31 pm

Honestly DC into snj Cnj have been consistent

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:33 pm

RJB8525 wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:Im not confident making any call right now besides im pretty confident DC will see 12"+

That might be the only given lol

Lol exactly

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:37 pm

So a friend of mine who's on the "IN" with UPTON just told me Blizzard Watches will go up tomorrow pm thru Fri Am, then B warnings thereafter.

by **oldtimer** Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:37 pm

Nj Thank you So the LP get to MD coast stalls and then E from there?

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:38 pm

I'm done for the day. Has never been that exciting of a storm for HV anyway a few runs to get you going but more bad runs than good. I'll check in the morning and pray somethings changed.

I'm hoping at least NYC on south gets a foot.

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:38 pm

Warning to be issued at 1800 Friday, to be more specific.

by **mako460** Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:43 pm

Soul...u just made Jman's day! LOL

by **weatherwatchermom** Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:51 pm

Ahhhhhhhhh....Lonnie Quinn just showed the Nam numbers 30 inches in NYC!!!!!!!!!! lol..he said he does not believe will we be that high..but man they the anchors are like whattt???? he is saying realistically 8-10 in the city it was just funny...I think I heard Christine Johnson gasp....

by **snow247** Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:54 pm

I'm pretty much done with this storm/winter, but before I leave for a few weeks, I just want to include this thing that someone posted on the other board. Hope they are ok with me reposting this here.

The second one is interesting.

"Bernie Rayno in his latest video (pre 18z GFS) makes a pretty good case on why he thinks this could come North.

1) With around 72 hours to go the odds of the models having nailed this perfectly are quite slim.

2) The old school rule about a system exiting the coast at the same latitude that it entered. Oregon and Northern CA would mean an exit right around the NJ coast.

3) While there is some confluence to the North, it's fairly weak. Nothing is really there to force things to the South. This is simply a result of the energy digging further South than ideal and then ULL moving due East instead of Northeast."

by **SNOW MAN** Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:55 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:Ahhhhhhhhh....Lonnie Quinn just showed the Nam numbers 30 inches in NYC!!!!!!!!!! lol..he said he does not believe will we be that high..but man they the anchors are like whattt???? he is saying realistically 8-10 in the city it was just funny...I think I heard Christine Johnson gasp....

He didn't even have his sleeves rolled up yet.

by **weatherwatchermom** Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:56 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:So a friend of mine who's on the "IN" with UPTON just told me Blizzard Watches will go up tomorrow pm thru Fri Am, then B warnings thereafter.

just heard LQ met on Channel 2 talking about winds...wind gusts 60's for Sandy Hook...and down coast...( I am 10 min from the hook)

by **weatherwatchermom** Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:56 pm

SNOW MAN wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:Ahhhhhhhhh....Lonnie Quinn just showed the Nam numbers 30 inches in NYC!!!!!!!!!! lol..he said he does not believe will we be that high..but man they the anchors are like whattt???? he is saying realistically 8-10 in the city it was just funny...I think I heard Christine Johnson gasp....

He didn't even have his sleeves rolled up yet.

thought the same thing..I think tom..he will lol

by **RJB8525** Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:56 pm

SNOW MAN wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:Ahhhhhhhhh....Lonnie Quinn just showed the Nam numbers 30 inches in NYC!!!!!!!!!! lol..he said he does not believe will we be that high..but man they the anchors are like whattt???? he is saying realistically 8-10 in the city it was just funny...I think I heard Christine Johnson gasp....

He didn't even have his sleeves rolled up yet.

LOL

by **amugs** Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:57 pm

snow247 wrote:I'm pretty much done with this storm/winter, but before I leave for a few weeks, I just want to include this thing that someone posted on the other board. Hope they are ok with me reposting this here.

The second one is interesting.

"Bernie Rayno in his latest video (pre 18z GFS) makes a pretty good case on why he thinks this could come North.

1) With around 72 hours to go the odds of the models having nailed this perfectly are quite slim.

2) The old school rule about a system exiting the coast at the same latitude that it entered. Oregon and Northern CA would mean an exit right around the NJ coast.

3) While there is some confluence to the North, it's fairly weak. Nothing is really there to force things to the South. This is simply a result of the energy digging further South than ideal and then ULL moving due East instead of Northeast."

Excellent points made here and don't give up yet my man we still have a good amount of time to get this sucker more north. I am pulling for yuo all up north - need to call Snowy and Big Momma !!

by **amugs** Wed Jan 20, 2016 6:03 pm

GEFS go a tad south by about 20 miles this run.

by **amugs** Wed Jan 20, 2016 6:03 pm

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