Updated 2014-2015 Winter Outlook

Please follow the link to my blog to read the latest outlook. Thank you.

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2015/01/winter-2014-2015-update.html

Frank

Frank,
Tremendous in depth and very easy to read/ follow write. Dam qbo and sun activity has caused many issues/ problems as you point out with this winter. Keep up the great work kid.
Mugs

Excellent read and very logical in it's conclusion.Agree 100% with the new, updated long range.It's apparent that one of these indicators having an extreme reading, can cancel out the signals given by a majority of the others.You now have an idea, Frank, of the conundrums faced by traders like myself in the investment markets.Just because a signal is supposed to change ( the  5or 6 month extremely negative QBO very logically SHOULD be changing, DOES NOT mean that it will co-operate).

Didn't the very negative EPO give us all that snow last year when there was very little blocking.?

The end of this winter and the final cold and snow totals will provide another piece of the information puzzle in the quest for what we who use technical indicators in investments call the "Holy Grail", an indicator or mechanism by which nearly perfect predictions can be made.

docstox12 wrote:Excellent read and very logical in it's conclusion.Agree 100% with the new, updated long range.It's apparent that one of these indicators having an extreme reading, can cancel out the signals given by a majority of the others.You now have an idea, Frank, of the conundrums faced by traders like myself in the investment markets.Just because a signal is supposed to change ( the  5or 6 month extremely negative QBO very logically SHOULD be changing, DOES NOT mean that it will co-operate).

Didn't the very negative EPO give us all that snow last year when there was very little blocking.?

The end of this winter and the final cold and snow totals will provide another piece of the information puzzle in the quest for what we who use technical indicators in investments call the "Holy Grail", an indicator or mechanism by which nearly perfect predictions can be made.

@Doc- yes, the EPO last season brought us all that cold. One thing people do not realize about last season is there was blocking - a Scandinavian block - which positioned the PV favorably to get northern stream driven systems to amplify along our coast. This year we don't even have blocking near Scandinavia, yet at least. Also, the AO was much more negative as well.

And thank you guys for the kind words

Reflecting back on it, the combination of a -EPO and a Scandinavian block really drove our entire winter pattern. Not the stratosphere, not the MJO, etc...

Frank_Wx wrote:Reflecting back on it, the combination of a -EPO and a Scandinavian block really drove our entire winter pattern. Not the stratosphere, not the MJO, etc...

OK, didn't know we had some blocking via Scandanavia.We'll remember last year's combo of -EPO and Scandanavian Block and put it in our data bank for future reference in years to come.