Re: January 15th-16th Storm Thread

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 13, 2013 10:32 pm

Me neither. Just pointing it out. GGEM did show this yesterday though. GFS rolling soon...

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 13, 2013 10:57 pm

Total snowfall 00z GFS

January 15th-16th Storm Thread - Page 2 408621_4731002705518_549740245_n

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sun Jan 13, 2013 11:30 pm

As someone mentioned on another forum if the GGEM was right this winter we'd have 2-3x the amount of snowfall we have now lol.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 13, 2013 11:43 pm

Did you see the GGEM tonight for this storm?

January 15th-16th Storm Thread - Page 2 I_nw_g1_EST_2013011300_083

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 14, 2013 1:11 pm

2 camps here. In one camp are the short range models such as NAM/RGEM showing 2-4 inch type snows for NYC Metro area. The GFS is warm. One thing for sure is this system has now trended north and stronger. Awaiting to see what Euro says but im at work.

by **Dunnzoo** Mon Jan 14, 2013 1:25 pm

Has anyone been tracking the models to see which has a better success rate this season? I tend to rely on the shorter range models than the gfs, but haven't been tracking the forecasts vs. results....

by **aiannone** Mon Jan 14, 2013 4:02 pm

Upton is out with a snow map already. I dont understand the forecast for LI thought. Weird to have accumulations out east and not west...
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/okx/stormtotalprecip.php

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 14, 2013 4:22 pm

Mets2695 wrote:Upton is out with a snow map already. I dont understand the forecast for LI thought. Weird to have accumulations out east and not west...
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/okx/stormtotalprecip.php

That is weird Alex.?? Not sure what to make of it to be honest. It looks like Suffolk County is the place to be on LI if you believe this map.

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 14, 2013 4:41 pm

I am just not buying any real accumulation anywhere on LI or NYC. With these waves of LP moving through with such a west to east direction the upper air will be influenced too much by the southerly flow. I think even the second one moves too fast once its off the coast to bring any wrap around colder air. I think you will have to go at least 25miles or so north of the CT Coast and into NW NJ and the HV to see any accumulation.
https://2img.net/r/ihimizer/img607/9325/jan1516th.png

by **docstox12** Mon Jan 14, 2013 6:34 pm

sroc4 wrote:I am just not buying any real accumulation anywhere on LI or NYC. With these waves of LP moving through with such a west to east direction the upper air will be influenced too much by the southerly flow. I think even the second one moves too fast once its off the coast to bring any wrap around colder air. I think you will have to go at least 25miles or so north of the CT Coast and into NW NJ and the HV to see any accumulation.
https://2img.net/r/ihimizer/img607/9325/jan1516th.png

OK, Sroc.Upton has me about an inch in NNJ and NWS mentioned there is a possibility of more significant accumulation. Cool

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 14, 2013 8:14 pm

I am back from work and ready to track. Everyone meet me in the chat box at 9pm.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Jan 14, 2013 8:30 pm

SROC I like that map, shows my thinking exactly. Very similar mixing area to the past few storms, slushy little bit of a mess around I-95 with a couple inches possible in NNJ through the HV and more further north.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 14, 2013 9:07 pm

sroc4 wrote:I am just not buying any real accumulation anywhere on LI or NYC. With these waves of LP moving through with such a west to east direction the upper air will be influenced too much by the southerly flow. I think even the second one moves too fast once its off the coast to bring any wrap around colder air. I think you will have to go at least 25miles or so north of the CT Coast and into NW NJ and the HV to see any accumulation.
https://2img.net/r/ihimizer/img607/9325/jan1516th.png

I'm not sure if I can bite on any solutions yet. Have you seen the NAM/EURO/RGEM? GFS on its own..

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Jan 14, 2013 9:41 pm

The 850 mb line is very close for me in CNJ and NYC, however the upper levels which I see on Accuwx pro namely the 1000-500mb level temps are warm on all models and so is the surface, during the heaviest precip the SFC temps are 35-40 in the I-95 corridor for miles on either side of the interstate, although those may be a bit overdone it's not good. Given the 0z NAM I still like SROC's thinking and too lazy to make my own map.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 14, 2013 9:51 pm

Here is EPAWA's preliminary snow map. My last name is on the map for this storm..oh goody. Lol. It better not bust. This is PRELIMINARY

January 15th-16th Storm Thread - Page 2 15_sno10

January 15th-16th Storm Thread - Page 2 15_sno10

by **aiannone** Mon Jan 14, 2013 9:53 pm

Tom, how do u have 14in already?

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 14, 2013 10:10 pm

Not much of a change to my snow map more just filling it in.
https://2img.net/r/ihimizer/img687/9325/jan1516th.png

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 14, 2013 10:14 pm

RGEM holds serve...general 1-3 inches for NYC Metro

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 15, 2013 1:04 am

Euro slams northern NJ. Wow.

Why is the GFS such an outlier?

2-4 inches from NEPA to NNJ on EURO with 1-2 inches in NYC and north shore Li as well

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 15, 2013 1:07 am

Looks like it's time to nowcast this storm...

by **docstox12** Tue Jan 15, 2013 4:59 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Euro slams northern NJ. Wow.

Why is the GFS such an outlier?

2-4 inches from NEPA to NNJ on EURO with 1-2 inches in NYC and north shore Li as well

Well, this morning NWS is nowhere near thinking that by me in NNJ.Maybe about an inch of slop according to them ar best.

by **sroc4** Tue Jan 15, 2013 7:31 am

I am a firm believer that the GFS is portraying this mostly right. It may be over doing the warmth a little but not by much. The soln is always a blend of the models with shifts closer to one soln or another. This image shows the current Sea Surface Temps(SST). Similar to the event that took place in late Dec this Low will slide west to East/NE direction south of LI. As you can see in the image I posted the SST are still quite warm. As the LP reaches the coast line the South/southeasterly flow will begin to mix in the various layers and prevent the accumulating snow from making it as far south as say the RPM showed. In order for this to work out along the immediate coast line the low would need to come off the coast much farther south and head towards us in a more NE/N direction so its counterclockwise wind flow would would come at us from more of a NE/N direction as the LP passed to our east. Some sleet will mix in along the NS of LI and NYC, but Im am sticking to say N of I 287 to see any true accumulation. My prev map sticks.

https://2img.net/r/ihimizer/img90/764/seasurftempsjan15th2013.gif
https://2img.net/r/ihimizer/img687/9325/jan1516th.png

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