February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential
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Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential
GEFS hold with its Op
sroc4- Admin
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Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential
Irish wrote:essexcountypete wrote:
My first thought when I saw that map was "oh Irish will like that one" LOL!!! LOCK IT IN!!!
Mom should be loving that as well.
come on, really?! That was your first thought?! Hysterical! You would've thought I made that map.
Totally! How often do you see the lollipop jackpot show up on Monmouth/Middlesex?
(just don't count on it staying there )
essexcountypete- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential
He says with the max area overheard LOL.
Listen I'll take the 10-12 it now has over me and sacrifice the higher amounts for the good of the board but that cutoff to my north is getting to close for comfort. Personally I wouldn't mind a 25 mile shift north today.
Of course any individual model run we see today should be taken with a grain of salt. Also remeber the 10:1 ratio snow maps are BS, the areas of 15-18 over CNJ probably more like 10-12 with a proper kuchera map. Try to use a blend of each set of runs and concentrate on that. Whatever you see on a map today will probably not unfold exactly as you see it anyway.
This will band and dryslot as it sees fit along with areas of subsidence that will always happen in a storm like this. Always remember that and keep expectations in check. A word of advice from a recovering Snowcaholic.
Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Feb 12, 2024 11:17 am; edited 2 times in total
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Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential
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Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential
HREF - MOMMA MIA !!!
Remember this is a 10:1 map not going to be most so take about 3-4" off for lower ration - coastal plain regions
Remember this is a 10:1 map not going to be most so take about 3-4" off for lower ration - coastal plain regions
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Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential
essexcountypete wrote:
My first thought when I saw that map was "oh Irish will like that one" LOL!!! LOCK IT IN!!!
Mom should be loving that as well.
I looked at that post and busted out laughing...all I kept seeing is coastal flood warning and maybe a trace and then this pops up. Lol I will believe when I see it..
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Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
He says with the max area overheard LOL.
Listen I'll take the 10-12 it now has over me and sacrifice the higher amounts for the good of the board but that cutoff to my north is getting to close for comfort. Personally I wouldn't mind a 25 mile shift north today.
Of course any individual model run we see today should be taken with a grain of salt. Also remeber the 10:1 ratio snow maps are BS, the areas of 15-18 over CNJ probably more like 10-12 with a proper kuchera map. Try to use a blend of each set of runs and concentrate on that. Whatever you see on a map today will probably not unfold exactly as you see it anyway.
This will band and dryslot as it sees fit along with areas of subsidence that will always happen in a storm like this. Always remember that and keep expectations in check. A word of advice from a recovering Snowcaholic.
Here is your GFS Kuchera Map
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential
Never, and if it is does, it's because the entire state is getting a Miller A and it's area wide explosion! I certainly don't count on it staying exactly there, but with being this close to the storm hitting, I like where we're at.essexcountypete wrote:Irish wrote:essexcountypete wrote:
My first thought when I saw that map was "oh Irish will like that one" LOL!!! LOCK IT IN!!!
Mom should be loving that as well.
come on, really?! That was your first thought?! Hysterical! You would've thought I made that map.
Totally! How often do you see the lollipop jackpot show up on Monmouth/Middlesex?
(just don't count on it staying there )
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Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential
This is exactly what I said to JMAN last night - Need the 700 and 850 to get off by AC and NYC gets in on the goods - now if we can get. if they can catch up with each other then we go Deathcom 5!!! This is a level 2 in my book right.
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Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential
GFS metograms show NYC puking snow from 7AM though Noon!!
1.5" of Precip - GOD IF ONLY WE HAD A QUEBEC HP ANCHORED OVERHEAD!!
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
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Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential
Actually me too Irish lol, this is insane, now snow gets down to central and parts of southern NJ and that strip your in is oriented very interestingly. But wow not complaining at all! Will it happen? It is anybody's guess.Irish wrote:essexcountypete wrote:
My first thought when I saw that map was "oh Irish will like that one" LOL!!! LOCK IT IN!!!
Mom should be loving that as well.
come on, really?! That was your first thought?! Hysterical! You would've thought I made that map.
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Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential
It is all nice CP for majority verbatim and pretty much all models have a similar snow output (yes looking at the snow maps, your point was well taken) but what I take is there is consistency across all of them for a 10+ inch snowfall for PA, NNJ NYC, And all of Hudson Valley up to just north of you. Looks possible even for central to even slightly south of central NJ like on GFS. Lets just pray these hold and don't move a lot (they also all have pretty much the same axis of the snowfall placement), we are well under 24 hrs now till game time so lets see, personally the snow maps don't mean much at this pt though Euro will be interesting to see.CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
That 12 over my house is nice but 30 miles north, that's a sharp cutoff, extreme even.
It's looking more and more like it will be a nail biter for those on the north and south end of the high totals, just for different reasons.
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Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
That 12 over my house is nice but 30 miles north, that's a sharp cutoff, extreme even.
It's looking more and more like it will be a nail biter for those on the north and south end of the high totals, just for different reasons.
I think it was much easier and stress free back in the day, some 60 years ago, when all you had was the 1/2 hourly radio news forecasts and the evening tv weather folks.Then you waited for that day and got a good or a bad surprise, and I had many of both.You observed out your window and knew after a couple of hours what was going to happen.Saw a great surprise for the Dec,11-12 1960 snowstorm( they had forecasted 4 inches and it was over 20) and a bad suprise( March 1962 Superstorm forecasted over a foot and got a dusting).Let's hope this thing bombs out and the precip field expands big time so everybody gets in on the goods.
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Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential
A few thoughts at present which may change with the wind as they say:
1. Liquid equivalents are pretty high on some models which is fueling some of these snow totals. But, I often think the GPS overdoes precipitation totals and I also think this will be less of a 10:1 maybe more of a 8:1 ratio event so the 10:1 maps might be a bit high.
2. Some models are showing sleet mixing in during the transition period. Models never do well with this in terms of factoring it into snow maps. It negatively affects accumulation amounts (obviously).
3. Ground will be just above freezing at outset, so really need the heavy rates to set in for this to start sticking. Once it does, it should pile up quick, but we could lose a couple (a few?) hours at the outset while the lighter precip doesn't accumulate right away. It will however help that it is starting at night and by the time the sun comes up, it should be getting heavy already.
Therefore, I'd take these snow maps and maybe read them with a conservative eye. Maybe shave a couple inches off the verbatim outputs. This is still a significant storm, but I don't want people expecting 12" and being disappointed if they get 8 or 9" in their area.
1. Liquid equivalents are pretty high on some models which is fueling some of these snow totals. But, I often think the GPS overdoes precipitation totals and I also think this will be less of a 10:1 maybe more of a 8:1 ratio event so the 10:1 maps might be a bit high.
2. Some models are showing sleet mixing in during the transition period. Models never do well with this in terms of factoring it into snow maps. It negatively affects accumulation amounts (obviously).
3. Ground will be just above freezing at outset, so really need the heavy rates to set in for this to start sticking. Once it does, it should pile up quick, but we could lose a couple (a few?) hours at the outset while the lighter precip doesn't accumulate right away. It will however help that it is starting at night and by the time the sun comes up, it should be getting heavy already.
Therefore, I'd take these snow maps and maybe read them with a conservative eye. Maybe shave a couple inches off the verbatim outputs. This is still a significant storm, but I don't want people expecting 12" and being disappointed if they get 8 or 9" in their area.
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Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential
billg315 wrote:A few thoughts at present which may change with the wind as they say:
1. Liquid equivalents are pretty high on some models which is fueling some of these snow totals. But, I often think the GPS overdoes precipitation totals and I also think this will be less of a 10:1 maybe more of a 8:1 ratio event so the 10:1 maps might be a bit high.
2. Some models are showing sleet mixing in during the transition period. Models never do well with this in terms of factoring it into snow maps. It negatively affects accumulation amounts (obviously).
3. Ground will be just above freezing at outset, so really need the heavy rates to set in for this to start sticking. Once it does, it should pile up quick, but we could lose a couple (a few?) hours at the outset while the lighter precip doesn't accumulate right away. It will however help that it is starting at night and by the time the sun comes up, it should be getting heavy already.
Therefore, I'd take these snow maps and maybe read them with a conservative eye. Maybe shave a couple inches off the verbatim outputs. This is still a significant storm, but I don't want people expecting 12" and being disappointed if they get 8 or 9" in their area.
Therefore
Kuchera maps are better in this marginal set up.
I'm looking at 5-8" here even though the maps may say 12" - not a truly arctic air mass again, if there was then those would be much better, realistic to use.
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Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential
billg315 wrote:This is still a significant storm, but I don't want people expecting 12" and being disappointed if they get 8 or 9" in their area.
This right here ^^ couldn't have said it better myself. I think it's important for everyone to view the next 24 hours as a gift, no matter what. 3-4 years ago, I would have been 'that guy' you are referencing. But if the last few winters have taught me anything, it's that any snow is good snow, and this will be 'good snow' for me whether I get 4 inches or 12 inches IMBY. I have been humbled by Mother Nature and no longer 'expect' big storms just because it's winter.
Not to mention, we all get to enjoy the 'track.' Nothing better than having something out there that warrants it's own thread, and another thread for snow maps. That right there is why this forum exists, and it's an absolute pleasure to obsessively check in on this forum for discussion and excellent analysis in the hours leading up to a potential 'big event.'
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Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential
Accu weather for Edison is calling for 1-3 inches which seems low
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Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential
Not if this storm keeps sliding south and east. I think some models are starting to show that.phil155 wrote:Accu weather for Edison is calling for 1-3 inches which seems low
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Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential
12Z Euro closes off h5 ull late. The big dog comes when that close off is before it leaves the coast. That's the biggest concern for the LHV/NW NJ/Poconos folks. If that close off is late disappointment will occur. I'm at a point with this storm Go BIG or Go HOME.
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Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential
Irish wrote:Not if this storm keeps sliding south and east. I think some models are starting to show that.phil155 wrote:Accu weather for Edison is calling for 1-3 inches which seems low
It's the consolidation that's what is at question now. IF this consolidates it's a really good storm if not rather run of the mill type deal.
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Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential
This is what heehaw references above. This would be a scenario where the storm matures/intensifies late. Coastal areas get a couple hours of heavy snow at the end adding to totals, but the area in general does not get in on the heavier amounts. This is one of about 3 or 4 outcomes here that is definitely not off the table.
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Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential
Model mayhem. As someone said earlier, this is an incredibly dynamic storm. No single run is going to be the true outcome. The 12z Euro showing a different setup than a lot of the shorter-range guidance that's now coming into range. Who will get it right?
Speaking of, when do we start focusing on the short-range models? We are basically inside of 12 hours now.
Speaking of, when do we start focusing on the short-range models? We are basically inside of 12 hours now.
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