Long Range Thread 28.0
Page 17 of 18 • 1 ... 10 ... 16, 17, 18
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
Unfortunately, it has everything to do with it. And the fact that you don't think it does is extremely naive and ironic. And what about me do my statements tell you other than I don't like to have discussions with people who are very far down the rabbit hole and refuse to see other perspectives? I'm curious because these statements come off as very judgmental, defensive and narrow-minded.sroc4 wrote:Irish wrote:I was just asking where you stood. I'm trying to decide if a meaningful conversation is even possible. If I heard back that you were completely a thorough Trumpy coming from the right, then I know to back away from the table slowly. I completely understand how the Science works, I'm a science teacher and work with my kids on the scientific method doing labs all the time. I would never ignore others ideas and turn a blind eye to them and even though I've done a fair amount of research and believe that humans are a major cause of the changes we're seeing with the climate and mass extinction of plants and animals currently happening today, I'm always open to hearing someone tell me how we're not.sroc4 wrote:Irish wrote:So climate change isn't real? The human created geological era we've entered of mass extinction of Flora and fauna isn't real? Ignoring consensus because it doesn't agree with your point of view, is rational?sroc4 wrote:essexcountypete wrote:amugs wrote:Great article on what I was saying about the drastic warming off the Eastern Australia Coast this winter in just months, talks about the underwater volcanoes and vents that may just be the answer and the answer to our warming oceans.
https://climatechangedispatch.com/how-hydrothermal-vents-and-other-seabed-structures-heat-our-oceans/
A great thread and other links to other articles - very interestingHuman activities are NOT warming Earth’s oceans: Emissions of super-heated fluids and gases from the estimated 10 million ocean floor geological features, including hydrothermal vents, are responsible for warming Earth’s oceans.https://t.co/cgwVyGouwO pic.twitter.com/0JBdPiQs6s
— WillyPhD (@willynerdal1) February 21, 2024
I know you guys love it when I chime in on these posts, but I can't help it. For those of us who agree with the scientific consensus on climate change, Climate Change Dispatch is not the most credible resource.
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/climate-change-dispatch/
"Overall, we rate Climate Change Dispatch as a Conspiracy and Quackery level Pseudoscience source for the promotion of false or misleading information..."
The website is run by Tom Harris...
https://www.desmog.com/tom-harris/
"Tom Harris is the Executive Director of the International Climate Science Coalition (ICSC), a group of climate change skeptics that has received funding from the Heartland Institute. Before starting work with ICSC, Harris was the Executive Director of the now-defunct Natural Resources Stewardship Project (NRSP).2 3
Prior to working with the NRSP, Harris was a Former Director of Operations at the Canadian PR and lobbying firm called the High Park Group (HPG). Previously, Harris was an Associate with APCO Worldwide, a group known for creating The Advancement of Sound Science Coalition (TASSC) which worked to advance tobacco industry
According to Harris’s archived profile at APCO Worldwide, “Specifically, he has worked with oil and gas, coal, nuclear, environmental and aerospace clients for whom he has conducted effective media and public relations campaigns.” His profile also highlights how he has “worked with private companies and trade associations to successfully position these entities and their interests with media and before various government committees and regulatory bodies.”6"
I get that not everyone here buys into the scientific consensus but it's important to know the background of any information resource.
Pete these fact checkers are as big a nonsense as what your claims are. Its just silly. The "fact checkers" of the world are as slanted as the left and right side. There isnt anything on this fact checkers page that disputes the validity of the claims, simply attempts to discredit the individual who makes the claim; therefore, the info must be bad info. And your words, "disputing the science consensus" is not an argument. You clearly have zero clue how science works. I honestly dont say this with disrespect. I simply mean pretty much EVER SINGLE breakthrough in science has come from those brave enough to challenge the consensus. THIS IS FACT.
You're smarter than this Pete. I know you are. Don't get lulled into the "consensus" as being fact. True science knows that the consensus is only what the majority believe based on the information available or in todays world the information allowed to presented and discussed.
Irish. For the love of God. Find me a post where I said climate change isn’t real? Never once have I stated that man and CO2 isn’t playing a role. That said the Climate has been changing for billions of years. My point is is that the idea that the climate science you are referring to is settled is simply ludicrous. And if don’t understand what is meant by that then I don’t have the time to have the discussion with you. If you dont understand that the greatest advances in any area of science have come because someone decided challenge the consensus then you my friend are the one who is simply ignoring other ideas because it goes against your beliefs.
“Trumpy coming from the right”? Man this tells me quite a bit about you. A discussion about climate should have nothing to do with who someone votes for. The fact that you used that phase tells me everything I need to know.
Irish- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 788
Join date : 2019-01-16
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
WeatherBob wrote:I have an idea, how about someone start a separate thread called Climate. Not climate change, not climate hoax etc..
. Just Climate so everyone can express thier opinions in the correct forum.
If I was a moderator here, and I am not, all discussions regarding climate change would be banned.We are a local weather observation site and climate discussions ultimately become toxic and divisive, much like religion and politics.I am sure there are dozens of sites dedicated to that issue, so go over there and post your thoughts.This board has been a breath of fresh air in this terribly angry and toxic environment of "us against them" in this country today.Anyway, that's my two cents on this issue.
Peace, out.
Doc
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 8504
Join date : 2013-01-07
amugs, CPcantmeasuresnow, Grselig, nancy-j-s, weatherwatchermom, Zhukov1945 and NYCTeacher like this post
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8331
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2501
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29
docstox12, kalleg and GreyBeard like this post
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 4466
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ
weatherwatchermom likes this post
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2501
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
Eh, not yet I guess.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 4466
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ
weatherwatchermom likes this post
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
Branches down from the top of a tree near the edge of our property--see the Y in the last photo.
Velocities last night were in the 40s and more, so I am thinking the wind came over the hill from the west, over our lower property and brought down these branches, landing several yards east of their original locations as part of the tree. The upright one is more than a couple of inches deep in the ground...
kalleg- Posts : 142
Reputation : 2
Join date : 2013-01-15
Location : New Hope, PA
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2501
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
Did this one come through?
kalleg- Posts : 142
Reputation : 2
Join date : 2013-01-15
Location : New Hope, PA
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2501
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
kalleg- Posts : 142
Reputation : 2
Join date : 2013-01-15
Location : New Hope, PA
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2501
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29
sroc4 and kalleg like this post
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2501
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29
sroc4, docstox12 and kalleg like this post
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
kalleg wrote:Mother Nature has done some serious pruning...
Branches down from the top of a tree near the edge of our property--see the Y in the last photo.
Velocities last night were in the 40s and more, so I am thinking the wind came over the hill from the west, over our lower property and brought down these branches, landing several yards east of their original locations as part of the tree. The upright one is more than a couple of inches deep in the ground...
Those are some impressive branches that came down..the winds were wicked last night..as you said mother nature did some pruning..just glad did not hit any of your structures
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 3738
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 60
Location : Hazlet Township, NJ
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
weatherwatchermom wrote:kalleg wrote:Mother Nature has done some serious pruning...
Branches down from the top of a tree near the edge of our property--see the Y in the last photo.
Velocities last night were in the 40s and more, so I am thinking the wind came over the hill from the west, over our lower property and brought down these branches, landing several yards east of their original locations as part of the tree. The upright one is more than a couple of inches deep in the ground...
Those are some impressive branches that came down..the winds were wicked last night..as you said mother nature did some pruning..just glad did not hit any of your structures
Wow, those branches are widow makers for sure!
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 8504
Reputation : 222
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 73
Location : Monroe NY
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
docstox12 wrote:weatherwatchermom wrote:kalleg wrote:Mother Nature has done some serious pruning...
Branches down from the top of a tree near the edge of our property--see the Y in the last photo.
Velocities last night were in the 40s and more, so I am thinking the wind came over the hill from the west, over our lower property and brought down these branches, landing several yards east of their original locations as part of the tree. The upright one is more than a couple of inches deep in the ground...
Those are some impressive branches that came down..the winds were wicked last night..as you said mother nature did some pruning..just glad did not hit any of your structures
Wow, those branches are widow makers for sure!
Did not think of that but you are right!
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 3738
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 60
Location : Hazlet Township, NJ
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2501
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
Regarding next week Friday, my opinion is that there isnt alot there; however, whatever energy swings through late next week could potentially set us up for something between the 9th-12th.
Now here are the disclaimers:
1) The pattern is anything but ideal, making this threat way more unlikely than likely
2) If a storm does develop and have cold with it the further away from the coast you get the better chance you have(capt obv statement)
3) This is as close to a true thread the needle as we get.
4) We all know sun angle is a major factor this time of year. That aid like discussing surface temps a week out, that's a detail that gets discussed after we have a storm, which we don't have yet, and we know the timing of it.
Bottom line is this. Although the pattern is less than ideal, the current set up with a negative NAO, a possible 50/50 feature while the chances aren't great, they are def not zero. And on the images below I have labeled PNA. I don't expect a huge spike along the west coast, but if the NAO and 50/50 are right a neutral PNA can be overcome. Its like saying we Don't need the QB to go out and win the game, we just need the QB to not lose the game for us. Let the other play makers win us the game.
As we head into early next week Ill be following these features in the ensembles to see how they evolve. Its all about evolving such that if energy comes together near the coast is there a cold air source to tap into. From there we focus on storm track; then IMBY details.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8331
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
kalleg, weatherwatchermom and JT33 like this post
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
_________________
Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4891
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 62
Location : Westwood, NJ
docstox12, weatherwatchermom and frank 638 like this post
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2501
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29
docstox12 and dkodgis like this post
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
dkodgis wrote:Bill, what does next Fridayish look like
Scott already answered this above so I'm late to the game. So I'll just say ditto to Scott's post. lol
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 4466
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ
sroc4 likes this post
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2501
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29
docstox12, Dunnzoo, kalleg and weatherwatchermom like this post
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
Coachgriff- Posts : 57
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2022-01-29
weatherwatchermom likes this post
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
Coachgriff wrote:I may be stretching long-range a bit but the temps in the Atlantic are already setting off alarm bells. If wind shear is limited this summer it could be a bad year for hurricanes.
LA Nina inbound I'd say we are in for an active to very active year overall. Time will tell. Many indicators are showing such, just like tjis winter BUT other factors derailed winter. Could it happen for hcane season, absolutely but again cautious about this hcane season.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15093
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2824
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 40
Location : bronx ny
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 7274
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY
kalleg likes this post
Page 17 of 18 • 1 ... 10 ... 16, 17, 18
|
|