Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

[nutleyblizzard]

Nam Precip chasing convection

In short, that’s what I meant to say.

[Coachgriff]

The wrap around snows from the GFS is absolutely insane now! As long as the ground isn’t too wet most of New Jersey could close this storm out with some snow pack!

[rb924119]

Local max over Scott’s house of 17” lmfaooooooo don’t it figure??

[rb924119]

NAM closes H5 off over the NY Bight. Holy Toledo……

[rb924119]

It’s one 18z run, but this is another step toward the solutions/ideas presented earlier in the week. If get all the way back to that from where we were going, what a fail by the modeling lol

[heehaw453]

It’s one 18z run, but this is another step toward the solutions/ideas presented earlier in the week. If get all the way back to that from where we were going, what a fail by the modeling lol

Very bizarre to see these kinds of swings at this lead time, but I'm not too surprised. When blocking is in place and s/w's are on the board then weird things tend to happen. Maybe this works out and maybe it doesn't but it's been a wild ride regardless...

[dsix85]

Keeping my bias in check, I’m more of a believer in this storm over performing relative to where we were a day ago. As we are now inside 48 hours it seems more legit.

[rb924119]

It’s one 18z run, but this is another step toward the solutions/ideas presented earlier in the week. If get all the way back to that from where we were going, what a fail by the modeling lol

Very bizarre to see these kinds of swings at this lead time, but I'm not too surprised. When blocking is in place and s/w's are on the board then weird things tend to happen. Maybe this works out and maybe it doesn't but it's been a wild ride regardless...

Hey, at least it shows that our ideas still hold merit. I know I’m more than relieved, because I was starting to think my call for 12-18”/14-20” for the I-95 Corridor was on cloud 9 with the runs we were seeing hahaha even if we aren’t entirely correct, at least we know we aren’t entirely crazy

[rb924119]

This type of result will also have MASSIVE implications on Tuesday’s storm. The stronger this gets sooner, the more it can build the western flank of the NAO ridge and enhance the block in advance of the next storm. In theory, should result in a further suppressed storm track for that one.

[heehaw453]

It’s one 18z run, but this is another step toward the solutions/ideas presented earlier in the week. If get all the way back to that from where we were going, what a fail by the modeling lol

Very bizarre to see these kinds of swings at this lead time, but I'm not too surprised. When blocking is in place and s/w's are on the board then weird things tend to happen. Maybe this works out and maybe it doesn't but it's been a wild ride regardless...

Hey, at least it shows that our ideas still hold merit. I know I’m more than relieved, because I was starting to think my call for 12-18”/14-20” for the I-95 Corridor was on cloud 9 with the runs we were seeing hahaha even if we aren’t entirely correct, at least we know we aren’t entirely crazy

I think if folks even got half of those numbers on the I95 it'd seem biblical considering the past few years.

[rb924119]

Well, this NAM run just got them halfway all the way down to Philly haha further north it was the whole shabang lol

[rb924119]

HOLY CRAP RGEM lol

[aiannone]

18z RGEM


I Might have to go to the north shore beach 5 minutes from my house and watch it snow over in CT with my windshield wipers on full speed LOL

[heehaw453]

The RGEM was getting there. The bottom line is there is a lot of energy coming up the jet streak. If this sucker can just get its act together a hair earlier then it's going to be party central on this board in 48 hours or so. A BIG IF...

[rb924119]

GFS looking about status quo, maybe slightly better.

[aiannone]

[aiannone]

[dsix85]

Sroc- we might be in a sweet spot on in/Around Wading River if this trend continues

[dsix85]

Sroc- we might be in a sweet spot on in/Around Wading River if this trend continues

[sroc4]

Sroc- we might be in a sweet spot on in/Around Wading River if this trend continues

For sure. We shall see.

[heehaw453]

My take away from GFS is the mid-level energy seems to be exiting off the Delmarva now. All that's left is the mid-levels to close off a just a bit earlier then it's on.

[GreyBeard]

NWS has watches up for interior sections.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/20240104_WeekendStorm_PM.pdf

[emokid51783]

Hudson County, NJ may be a battleground location. Preparing the troops.

[Artechmetals]

Winter storm watch for my area , Wayne Nj heavy snow 5 to 8 in

[DAYBLAZER]

Will there be another briefing from Mt Holly soon? Curious to see their adjustments. Last one was 6AM.

Regardless, cautious optimism up here in Sussex county.....hoping the trend is our friend.

[rb924119]

I think the 18z EURO is about to go nuclear…… H5 looks incredible.

[rb924119]

Closes 850 hPa low over the NY Bight, and 700 hPa is now a notably stronger closed low over NYC . Not a great H7 track, but with the 850 hPa low further southeast it might end up ok. Let’s see precip.

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