January 2024 Observations and Discussion

heehaw453 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:All the models today 12Z are showing very little if any n/s interaction. Of course tomorrow is another story but you'd want to see that trend stop and reverse course tomorrow. This won't be be a Godzilla for anyone IMO unless we get that phasing at the right time. Can still be a nice event for NW I95 though. Hell I'd take 3-6" right now sign on the dotted line.

I dont think this is an interaction with the n/s issue.  This is a southern system that comes into a cold antecedent air mass.  Question is how consolidated is the enrgy at our latitude.  Biggest solns showed a closed low and strong vort.  Latest trends on euro have been to not have as consolidated energy.  That's a problem.

12z yesterday 00z then 12z today

It's subtle but I believe it does make a significant difference in how the storm consolidates and rapidly deepens also it's reinforcing colder air at the mid levels.

northern stream

no northern stream shown

But what your showing is a 250mb wind map. You have to zoom out a little to see the northern jet. Normally you find the greatest verticle forcing in the Right rear or left front quadrants of a jet streak. Thats where pressures will tend to want to drop the fastest. The biggest difference I see from yest 12z to todays 12z on the euro is today the Northern branch is further north and much weaker. The low is centered poorly to have any help from the southen branch jet streak as modeled. In addition at 500mb like the vort maps indicate the vorticity is way more sporead out; less reds that the prev two runs.

heehaw453 wrote:Tracks have not been our problem for the most part with storms this season. And I don't think this one will either per se. But it will need to deepen some how some way.

More consolidated vorticity at 500 and or better positioned and stronger jet streak

sroc4 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:All the models today 12Z are showing very little if any n/s interaction. Of course tomorrow is another story but you'd want to see that trend stop and reverse course tomorrow. This won't be be a Godzilla for anyone IMO unless we get that phasing at the right time. Can still be a nice event for NW I95 though. Hell I'd take 3-6" right now sign on the dotted line.

I dont think this is an interaction with the n/s issue.  This is a southern system that comes into a cold antecedent air mass.  Question is how consolidated is the enrgy at our latitude.  Biggest solns showed a closed low and strong vort.  Latest trends on euro have been to not have as consolidated energy.  That's a problem.

12z yesterday 00z then 12z today

It's subtle but I believe it does make a significant difference in how the storm consolidates and rapidly deepens also it's reinforcing colder air at the mid levels.

northern stream

no northern stream shown

But what your showing is a 250mb wind map.  You have to zoom out a little to see the northern jet.   Normally you find the greatest verticle forcing in the Right rear or left front quadrants of a jet streak.  Thats where pressures will tend to want to drop the fastest.  The biggest difference I see from yest 12z to todays 12z on the euro is today the Northern branch is further north and much weaker.  The low is centered poorly to have any help from the southen branch jet streak as modeled.  In addition at 500mb like the vort maps indicate the vorticity is way more sporead out; less reds that the prev two runs.  

OK. I like your assessment too. But I still think the n/s has to get involved more for a bigger potential. I don't think southern stream alone is enough as you will have better cold air supply with the n/s and a kicker to create more spin.

Interesting map posted by NorEasterNick. And he also fully expects the storm track to inch more eastward, just not by enough to save the Shore on this one. We’re tough and resilient at the Shore, and plenty used to getting bypassed. So, if this the final outcome- we will be ready to track the next one…for sure!



This map depicts the chances by % of accumulating at least one inch of snow this weekend.

SENJsnowman wrote:Interesting map posted by NorEasterNick. And he also fully expects the storm track to inch more eastward, just not by enough to save the Shore on this one. We’re tough and resilient at the Shore, and plenty used to getting bypassed. So, if this the final outcome- we will be ready to track the next one…for sure!



This map depicts the chances by % of accumulating at least one inch of snow this weekend.

I feel even in your area you can see at least an inch of snow. It's not the track per se that is the issue. It's the lack of a deepening storm that is more so the problem.

This mid level track is money. But it's not consolidating fast enough. There's a myriad of reason as to why that is IMO, but that is the bottom line until it changes tomorrow  

Today weaker storm further east



Yesterday strong storm tucked

And I just realized senj was speaking track as monitor, not track of this storm. sorry senj...

18z GFS does not have a significant primary out west, as RB was saying the GFS was at one point and it was maybe wrong.

aiannone wrote:18z GFS does not have a significant primary out west, as RB was saying the GFS was at one point and it was maybe wrong.

So this bodes well or not for a storm? The primary meaning the energy we want to see maintain strength or is that a different piece? I honestly am not that enthused about this storm, something tells me if anything this will be a interior event like I-287 and north in NY. Rest of us rain, we will see, not getting good vibes though after todays runs and the troubles seen potentially by Bernie and those on here. If that energy weakens we are toast, at least some of us and those that do will get little.

Wow 18z has a narrow swath of heavy snow that has a sharp cut off and screws LI and CT, but even NYC sees 3-6+, and JUST N/W 8-10 and then quickly to 0 further N/W you go how is that possible that further east sees so little does it die out, or it drops SE? Big swings in models as is expected.

jmanley32 wrote:

aiannone wrote:18z GFS does not have a significant primary out west, as RB was saying the GFS was at one point and it was maybe wrong.

So this bodes well or not for a storm? The primary meaning the energy we want to see maintain strength or is that a different piece? I honestly am not that enthused about this storm, something tells me if anything this will be an interior event like I-287 and north in NY. Rest of us rain, we will see, not getting good vibes though after todays runs and the troubles seen potentially by Bernie and those on here.  If that energy weakens we are toast, at least some of us and those that do will get little.

Yes, it bodes well. The primary is the low that initially tracks west of the Appalachians, and then transfers to the coast. The longer the primary hangs on, the warmer the overall storm will be for us, as more warm air can be drawn northward before the coastal low takes over.

As for the rest of your post, I’m going to take my own advice and holdddddddddd before accepting this idea of a weaker wave. Now, that is NOT to be mistaken for me denying that most recent runs do indicate a weaker conglomeration of energy. Because I’m not lol but, at this time* I do not think that it’s correct. Fundamentally, there is not much difference between this afternoon’s runs and last night’s/yesterday’s through the time when our energy is approaching/at the Continental Divide. The difference comes AFTER this, with latest runs de-amplifying the wave. This doesn’t make physical sense. When that energy emerges on the eastern side of the mountains, it should actually intensify some via vortex tube stretching. What is vortex tube stretching? Think of a column of air being advected over the mountains. It’s forced up and over, and as that column rises, it cools and contracts. As it emerges on the eastern side of the mountains and downslopes, that column starts expanding downward. As it stretches, due to conservation of mass (and momentum), the radius of that column has to shrink. What happens when a rotating circle shrinks? Its rotational velocity increases, just like an ice skater when he/she goes from extended arms to tucked arms.

Let’s give this some time before everybody jumps off the proverbial cliff, because this doesn’t make sense to me.

Now, I also understand that our wave will be de-amplifying due to the ambient environment. You have a broadening trough axis thanks to secondary energy coming onshore in the West, compounded by the fact that it’s approaching a ridge axis, which works against cyclonic development/maintenance. However, at least conceptually, I would think that the vortex tube stretching should offset this for a while, as it gives it a stronger starting point. Let’s see what happens, folks.

Even if that trend IS true, it would certainly lower the potential ceiling but could still be a solid snowfall for many, WAA style, no?

MattyICE wrote:Even if that trend IS true, it would certainly lower the potential ceiling but could still be a solid snowfall for many, WAA style, no?

Correct.

Recon flights scheduled for Thursday and Friday

That’s kind of a big deal, no?

Thanks rb, and ya I would say recon mission means they want to sample a possibly sig storm. They did so with the big storm on the 18th in the GOM and it wasn't scheduled. So ya I would say something is up. It is def not cheap to send those out.

It’s almost like the models have been focusing on the wrong wave and are now realizing that “oh crap, I was expecting a right, but ya hit me with a left”. I wonder if we see the second piece of energy that trails what we *think* is the main event actually become the main event. Not saying I necessarily see this happening, but it is a possible option that these recent shifts bring into the mix, especially if they continue.

Like I said, I’m letting this ride for right now. Very intriguing situation.

EPS low locations took a significant shift back SE on 18z compared to 12z

sroc4 wrote:EPS low locations took a significant shift back SE on 18z compared to 12z

Hopefully it’s not a blip

FWIW 00z GFS looks better to me through 54. We’ll see what happens.

This should be a colder run/further southeast.

I’m up watching with ya ray. Should be asleep but couldn’t resist lol

Man, that energy just falls apart so fast, though. Just flattens out into nothing but warm advection snow. If that’s real, this thing is no more than a 4-8” event. Sad, considering where it would have started.

Well that was disappointing. Lol

aiannone wrote:Well that was disappointing. Lol

Look at the GEM if you’re depressed, it should help

We hug the Canadian lol