Re: February Obs & Discussions

by **aiannone** Sun Feb 26, 2023 2:50 pm

18Z HRRR is COLD!

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Sn10_a56

Also good video from Bernie. Talks about NYC metro in great detail
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4Dv3_dY4YQ&t=18s

by **heehaw453** Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:12 pm

aiannone wrote:18Z HRRR is COLD!

Also good video from Bernie. Talks about NYC metro in great detail
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4Dv3_dY4YQ&t=18s

The 18Z HRRR has a closed off 850mb low. That's what it's going to take for amounts > 4". Fast consolidation and slow movement.

by **SENJsnowman** Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:17 pm

Hee Haw- thanks so much for the follow up. Your season-long dedication to posting helpful and honest info has been all the more impressive considering how most of the reporting has been about why it won't snow. Tough to stay motivated, but you do it! Thanks! And SROC, that was an awesome expo- very informative and detailed, but easy peasy to read and understand!

As far as tomorrow night...for sure the Jersey Shore has a tough road to see any accumulating snowfall. Is it even possible given the set-up? Maybe not.

But, in my never-ending search for reasons to believe that it WILL in fact snow at GSP Exit 80, things are definitely still heading South and East.

From the last few posts we can see that 48 hours ago, the r/s line extended all the way up to the City- north of Brooklyn and Queens even!

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Rgem110

And now it's literally attacking the Ocean County line:

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Rgem210

And the NW corner of Ocean County got some decent love in the snowfall map that Ainnone just posted.

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Hrrr10

So, even given this trend, I am expecting zero. And hoping for 4-5 inches!!! Very Happy

by **billg315** Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:20 pm

I think this is my first official Winter Weather Advisory of the year: WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 5 AM ESTTUESDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Hunterdon and Somerset. In Pennsylvania, Lehigh and Upper Bucks.

* WHEN...From 5 PM Monday to 5 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates could exceed one inch per hour at times Monday night. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

by **billg315** Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:23 pm

They are on the conservative side of this (I have my area in the 2-4” zone, so not too far off), but only if the low closes off and enhances the totals as a couple of the models are showing. If not this is probably the right call. My experience is in an uncertain situation like this the NWS starts cautious and then upgrades if the models start aligning that way tomorrow.

by **amugs** Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:28 pm

Upton concurs!! Also this mostly falls in the cloak of darkness....... overnight!
February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 StormTotalSnow

by **amugs** Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:29 pm

Mt. Holly

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 DF3BE154-7165-41E1-93D6-949044932571.png.ebfeb6564dc9fbb83688f29220475487

by **jmanley32** Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:34 pm

I love how the models snow maps just flat out lie 24 hrs b4. Im not be a debbie downer. Im be a realist. im setting my expectations at a nice soaking cold rain 287 and south. How islip sees 3 to 5 snd nyc and surrounding areas may see a inch or two then rain is beyond me. Congrats nw folks. Why would anything change. This year has and needs to be done. If we get a inch or two with rain id rather all rain i hate slop.

by **amugs** Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:34 pm

by **jmanley32** Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:37 pm

amugs wrote:Upton concurs!! Also this mostly falls in the cloak of darkness....... overnight!

sorry not buying 4 to 6 imby after franks and the follow up posts. A lot of big ifs.

by **jmanley32** Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:38 pm

amugs wrote:

i dont know what to think im lost ad im in orange but where i work in new rochelle 6 miles to east isnt?

by **amugs** Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:42 pm

jmanley32 wrote:I love how the models snow maps just flat out lie 24 hrs b4. Im not be a debbie downer. Im be a realist. im setting my expectations at a nice soaking cold rain 287 and south. How islip sees 3 to 5 snd nyc and surrounding areas may see a inch or two then rain is beyond me. Congrats nw folks. Why would anything change. This year has and needs to be done. If we get a inch or two with rain id rather all rain i hate slop.

Jon I am sorry but what scientific explanation do you have from this view other than fear of the seasonal trend? And you want this winter over? We have explained, SROC did at length in great KISS details, of how this is a complex but different set up we are seeing than we did for the past 3 months of storms which cut. Hunch? Gut feeling? Maybe NYC S sees a slop fest after a coupleof inches with sleet and then rain to end but it is coming in at night which helps as well.
And yes you are being a Debbie Downer Laughing

Upton thinks the low end of 2-3” N of Rt 80 high end 5-6”.
287 N it has low end of 4” and high end of 8”

by **jmanley32** Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:47 pm

amugs wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I love how the models snow maps just flat out lie 24 hrs b4. Im not be a debbie downer. Im be a realist. im setting my expectations at a nice soaking cold rain 287 and south. How islip sees 3 to 5 snd nyc and surrounding areas may see a inch or two then rain is beyond me. Congrats nw folks. Why would anything change. This year has and needs to be done. If we get a inch or two with rain id rather all rain i hate slop.

Jon I am sorry but what scientific explanation do you have from this view other than fear of the seasonal trend? And you want this winter over? We have explained, SROC did at length in great KISS details, of how this is a complex but different set up we are seeing than we did for the past 3 months of storms which cut. Hunch? Gut feeling? Maybe NYC S sees a slop fest after a coupleof inches with sleet and then rain to end but it is coming in at night which helps as well.
And yes you are being a Debbie Downer
Upton thinks the low end of 2-3” N of Rt 80 high end 5-6”.
287 N it has low end of 4” and high end of 8”

fine ok ill just wait snd see. I dont have the scientific evidence except this years trends. Im reading some of our experts are more intrigued thsn others. But i guess makes sense cant all be on same page. Heres to hoping my nws 4 to 6 pans out. Ok back to positivity.

by **dkodgis** Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:51 pm

In seven weeks the season will wrap. The weeks know many things the days do not.

Jon, I am curious. If there is some snow tomorrow night and Fri, will this be fortunate weather events for you?

by **jmanley32** Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:51 pm

It def does help go b overnight. Its currently 45. Its gonna have snow hard to stick to roads and man did they salt here roads are white. After that debacle in i think 2017 i think they never tak8ng chsnces again. Not like they running low on supply lol

by **jmanley32** Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:53 pm

dkodgis wrote:In seven weeks the season will wrap. The weeks know many things the days do not.

Jon, I am curious. If there is some snow tomorrow night and Fri, will this be fortunate weather events for you?

yes if i even see a few inches ill be happy. I realize im not in the best nor the worst spot. What i dont want is slop especially since its overnight i may not even get to see it. Lets not begin on friday yet lol. Im not even look at lr to see till tuesday. There were def some crazy runs for that one over past week.

by **jmanley32** Sun Feb 26, 2023 4:08 pm

Yay my first wwa 3 to 5. Im perfectly pleased if that happens.

by **billg315** Sun Feb 26, 2023 4:44 pm

18z GFS running. The 18z NAM actually showed a very subtle jog to the south - a nudge if you will toward the GFS and Euro. Is that the start of a trend that leads to all 3 being on the same page tomorrow? Maybe. As of now it is still the least aggressive on the southward extent of the snow accumulation, but, if it takes another jog south tonight, that would be closer to what we need.
One other thing about the NAM I've noticed the last few years. It loves sleet. That model can pump out some prodigious sleet fields. lol.

by **billg315** Sun Feb 26, 2023 5:02 pm

Beginning of a NAM shift south toward gfs/euro? Maybe. Maybe not, but it’s a start:
12z NAM

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 9b261a10

18z NAM:

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 D63f6610

12z NAM:

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 6b827710

18z NAM:

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 7ea21410

12z NAM:

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 0876d710

18z NAM:

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 7c072c10

Subtle, but that’s how the gfs trend stated too.

by **billg315** Sun Feb 26, 2023 5:14 pm

The fact that all of this precipitation is to fall at night after sunset and before sunrise can't be underestimated too. That helps tremendously this time of year with temps and snow accumulations

by **billg315** Sun Feb 26, 2023 5:22 pm

Annnd if you can believe it, the 18z GFS is even a tick south of the 12z. Keeps the brunt of the heaviest snow accumulation across the same parts of NEPA, NNJ, LHV, NYC metro and LI, but actually brings measurable snow further south into SNJ as far south as parts of Ocean and Burlington Counties (maybe not quite to you SENJ Snowman, but closer!).
Also the 500mb energy now dives through Maryland and the southern Delmarva a bit south of last run and in line with Euro.

by WinterColdandSnowisamyth Sun Feb 26, 2023 5:40 pm

Still a winter storm watch in Orange County for 5-8 inches. Wonder when the warnings coming?

by **heehaw453** Sun Feb 26, 2023 6:02 pm

We need that ULL to be robust as it approaches the coast. That'll tug slightly north, but consolidation offsets the northward placement. I really think this needs that close off to be decent for many on this board.

by WinterColdandSnowisamyth Sun Feb 26, 2023 6:08 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Yay my first wwa 3 to 5. Im perfectly pleased if that happens.

I would temper my excitement if I were you. You do have to realize you are the southernmost part of that advisory area and would be more in line for the 3 inches than anything else.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Feb 26, 2023 6:46 pm

amugs wrote:Question what models are you guys looking at that show the primary goes to far North after the 12Z run that will cause this to be a nuisance type storm for anyone N of I80? I am seeing a sl=olid 3-5". NYC and a bit South a nuisance maybe but the CAD is darn hard for the models to pick up on. Seasonal trends and FEAR of are the only two aspects that I see becasue every major model shows the press of the NAO and confluence over the NE region incerasing since Thursday aagin for I78 N. It was a HV storm that has trended a good 100 miles south since then. If that is not a trend?? I do not know what is. CMC shows what I am talking about in the GIF and the EURO has been on this for days now and all models are coming around to it...cough cpough GFS, NAM. My .02 here but the potential is exciting from what we have had fro NYC on N. Coastal plain sorry folks, the spoils of the last 20 years are put on hold. MAYBE the MARCH 3rd storm will deliver. Time will tell.

CMC from CCB 33n rain

Here is your HREF that is a darn good SR model - composite of all SR models. Great starting point for this. Elevations will be doing better and their maybe a warm nose around I78 to I80 but N of their it looks to be mostly snow.

My reference of a nuisance was purely for NYC and points S&E. Also, here is your primary and secondary lows.

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 6b64f410

by **jmanley32** Sun Feb 26, 2023 6:57 pm

WinterColdandSnowisamyth wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Yay my first wwa 3 to 5. Im perfectly pleased if that happens.

I would temper my excitement if I were you. You do have to realize you are the southernmost part of that advisory area and would be more in line for the 3 inches than anything else.

Aware, you never know, I have had it snow heavily here and rain 15 mins into the bronx. Even 3 inches is better than calling a winter with nothing, I am not exactly excited but my daughter really wants to go sledding so im hoping it'll be enough for that 3-5 is just barely enough. If not then oh well, maybe Friday something will happen but that one seems less likely. BTW welcome to the forum and love the username lol

by WinterColdandSnowisamyth Sun Feb 26, 2023 7:13 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
WinterColdandSnowisamyth wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Yay my first wwa 3 to 5. Im perfectly pleased if that happens.

I would temper my excitement if I were you. You do have to realize you are the southernmost part of that advisory area and would be more in line for the 3 inches than anything else.
Aware, you never know, I have had it snow heavily here and rain 15 mins into the bronx. Even 3 inches is better than calling a winter with nothing, I am not exactly excited but my daughter really wants to go sledding so im hoping it'll be enough for that 3-5 is just barely enough. If not then oh well, maybe Friday something will happen but that one seems less likely. BTW welcome to the forum and love the username lol

Thank you I appreciate it.

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