February 2022 Obs & Discussions

Okay peeps the first month of the year is in the books and it's time to move into what is the snowiest climatological month of the year here in the NE.

Tomorrow our furry friends, the Groundhog, as legend tells will say whether we have 6 more weeks of winter of an early spring.
I think out groundhogs - Ray, Mugs and DOC (His bones tell him not the shadow) will have and have had their own story to say.



Rodents vs The Tres

Chuck, Phil, Emily  vs.   Ray, Mugs and DOC - who wins it??

Time will tell.

9* here in Hillsdale this morning.

Deep winter feel for sure with 4.5" of snowpack

It was cold this morning. That is all.

...PATCHY BLACK ICE POSSIBLE ACROSS LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
A light east to northeast flow will continue to bring in a maritime air mass across Long Island late tonight into Wednesday morning. As a result, patchy black ice may form during this time, especially on roadways closer to the ocean and bays. Anyone out driving late tonight into Wednesday morning in these areas should use extra caution. From the NWS.

aiannone wrote:...PATCHY BLACK ICE POSSIBLE ACROSS LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
A light east to northeast flow will continue to bring in a maritime air mass across Long Island late tonight into Wednesday morning. As a result, patchy black ice may form during this time, especially on roadways closer to the ocean and bays. Anyone out driving late tonight into Wednesday morning in these areas should use extra caution. From the NWS.

I was out in Commack today and with the amount of snow you all got and the melting along the roadways, that will be an issue for sure. Glad I'm back home before it froze!

22 degrees partly cloudy calm winds.

Just not our winter so far CP.Now the big snow is North of us after being S and E the last 2 months. Showers in the 40's tomorrow then a layer of slop which will freeze solid.Ugh.Looks dry and cold again next week.

25* and a beautiful white landscape outside

28* currently- wee bit of melting ahead today with forecast highs in the low 40’s

27* this morning..

24* this morning

Looks like Ray, Mugs and Doc beat those little Verments back today and they called for 6 more weeks of winter -
The Tres went Hog wild on them!!

45* and some nice melting. Feels so much better than the biting cold we've had. Time to run to the food store! lol

42 nice degrees, sunny and calm winds.
Looks like the obligatory January Thaw we never got in January is here today and tomorrow anyway.Back in the deep freeze after this slop storm.Snowpack looks to survive anyway, have 5 inches of concrete down there and this slop will freeze solid on top of it all,lol.
I think CP has it in his records we started snowpack on January 7th.

Here is an observation.... it's UGLY outside.

Incredible images out of Dallas, TX

that is some serious ice

Good grief that is awful in Dallas Texas, PLEASE stay away from here ice!!!

aiannone wrote:Incredible images out of Dallas, TX

That's > 1.25" and that is complete devastation.

Maps didn't over due down there, did they now?
Nor will it for other areas that are going to be hard hit.

January departure from normal temperature finished -2 to -4 degrees. Pretty cold month thanks to the emergence of a -EPO/+PNA, which was jump started by an active MJO wave.



December was very warm and we all started to freak out that winter would never come (ok maybe I started to freak out while Ray, Al and other kept everyone else sane). Because of it I think we’re averaging an a ice normal winter to this point. Let’s see if February gets us to normal or possibly below.

What a frustrating event this was. Dead of winter and many folks hitting mid 50s with over 1" of rain which of course is better than getting iced up. But nonetheless the interior hasn't been hit flush with a single event this winter and I'd call that a bit of bad luck.

Have to continue to watch Monday night/Tuesday, but models seem to want to take it wide right as the western ridge doesn't get a chance to pump with n/s disturbances to the north of the ridge. I am not optimistic for AN February snows. I just don't think we have the support from the Atlantic/Arctic and the flow being progressive February is still sensitive to wave spacing issues. There will be chances after 2/10, but I don't think we cash in big. Nickel and dime stuff...

heehaw453 wrote:Have to continue to watch Monday night/Tuesday, but models seem to want to take it wide right as the western ridge doesn't get a chance to pump with n/s disturbances to the north of the ridge.  I am not optimistic for AN February snows.  I just don't think we have the support from the Atlantic/Arctic and the flow being progressive February is still sensitive to wave spacing issues.  There will be chances after 2/10, but I don't think we cash in big.  Nickel and dime stuff...

Thats not what I want to hear. While our southern viewers are cashing in on snowfall this year, I’m currently standing at 15”. There’s a chance I might end up below normal for the season unless we produce later in February into March.

I'm at 17 measurable inches for the winter. The total with the number of snows that didn't cover the ground is maybe 19 or so. Seasonal average is supposed to be either 35 or 37 depending on which site I check. It's gonna take quite a few nickels and dimes to reach that.

nutleyblizzard wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:Have to continue to watch Monday night/Tuesday, but models seem to want to take it wide right as the western ridge doesn't get a chance to pump with n/s disturbances to the north of the ridge.  I am not optimistic for AN February snows.  I just don't think we have the support from the Atlantic/Arctic and the flow being progressive February is still sensitive to wave spacing issues.  There will be chances after 2/10, but I don't think we cash in big.  Nickel and dime stuff...

Thats not what I want to hear. While our southern viewers are cashing in on snowfall this year, I’m currently standing at 15”. There’s a chance I might end up below normal for the season unless we produce later in February into March.

There will be cold air around as the TPV elongates and drops down toward eastern side of Hudson Bay after 2/10 compliments of favorable EPO/PNA. Our window will last about last 10-14 days. The window will be mitigated by a so-so arctic/Atlantic domain. And then I believe the arctic will go hostile mid month and effects manifest towards the end of February. So then in March you have not a wave spacing concern like January/Feb because March requires less spacing for amplification of s/w, but we will turn warmer faster than your typical March. IMO January will be the best winter month this year similar to February last year. If December hadn't had such anomalous PNA issues it would've produced very nicely, but if if if...

TheAresian wrote:I'm at 17 measurable inches for the winter. The total with the number of snows that didn't cover the ground is maybe 19 or so. Seasonal average is supposed to be either 35 or 37 depending on which site I check. It's gonna take quite a few nickels and dimes to reach that.

Aresian I'm a bit surprised that your specific area averages < 40" per year, no actually shocked. BGM NWS average is 82"/year and elevation in that area is > 1000' ASL on average. I realize BGM sometimes gets enhanced snow from the Lakes, but I would think your area is at least 70" even being 70 miles west.

heehaw453 wrote:

TheAresian wrote:I'm at 17 measurable inches for the winter. The total with the number of snows that didn't cover the ground is maybe 19 or so. Seasonal average is supposed to be either 35 or 37 depending on which site I check. It's gonna take quite a few nickels and dimes to reach that.

Aresian I'm a bit surprised that your specific area averages < 40" per year, no actually shocked.  BGM NWS average is 82"/year and elevation in that area is > 1000' ASL on average.  I realize BGM sometimes gets enhanced snow from the Lakes, but I would think your area is at least 70" even being 70 miles west.

If the map violates some kind of rule let me know and I'll remove it. Either way, I live in the black circle. You can see I have some peculiar geography to deal with. I live in a sort of valley about 900' ASL on the Allegheny plateau. Systems coming from the west transfer off the coast. Systems that do well for you are too far east for me. Mountains to the north and northwest block enhancement from the Great Lakes. It takes an unusual storm track for me to jackpot. Either that or a storm like '93 where a good chunk of the eastern US was buried.