Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II

by **rb924119** Fri Jan 28, 2022 3:13 pm

Phasing process underway, as seen by the merger of the two wind fields at the base of the trough (circled in red). Note your highest wind speeds (purple) downstream of the trough axis. Those speeds have notably increased since two hours ago. The fuse it lit, folks.

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 20 6ff47e10

by emokid51783 Fri Jan 28, 2022 3:14 pm

dsix85 wrote:Is it fair to say where the heaviest axis of snow sets up you can put out 4"/hr rates?

NYC west may get clobbered by that deformation band

by **lglickman1** Fri Jan 28, 2022 3:15 pm

rb924119 wrote:Phasing process underway, as seen by the merger of the two wind fields at the base of the trough (circled in red). Note your highest wind speeds (purple) downstream of the trough axis. Those speeds have notably increased since two hours ago. The fuse it lit, folks.

Any reason to think it will close off earlier than modeled based in this? It seemed it took forever to do so on all the models till after it was too late

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Jan 28, 2022 3:18 pm

heehaw453 wrote:NAM 18Z basically closed off a bit later than 12Z. I'd like to see that circle nice and round at closer to the coast. It's hard ignore NAM with EC storm at 18 hours out.

I have no idea what this map represents?

by **heehaw453** Fri Jan 28, 2022 3:24 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:NAM 18Z basically closed off a bit later than 12Z. I'd like to see that circle nice and round at closer to the coast. It's hard ignore NAM with EC storm at 18 hours out.

I have no idea what this map represents?

This is 500mb vorticity energy. Basically that ragged circle below LI is not well consolidated for that longitude/latitude. I'd like to see that type of representation right off OC MD. I think we may just be an hour or two too late on this consolidation.

by **dsix85** Fri Jan 28, 2022 3:25 pm

emokid51783 wrote:
dsix85 wrote:Is it fair to say where the heaviest axis of snow sets up you can put out 4"/hr rates?
NYC west may get clobbered by that deformation band

Emo brother! JC might end up getting the goods with the early phase!

by **phil155** Fri Jan 28, 2022 3:25 pm

emokid51783 wrote:
dsix85 wrote:Is it fair to say where the heaviest axis of snow sets up you can put out 4"/hr rates?
NYC west may get clobbered by that deformation band

Eastern half of NJ, NY and especially LI look to to get hit with that band if that works out as depicted

by **rb924119** Fri Jan 28, 2022 3:29 pm

lglickman1 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Phasing process underway, as seen by the merger of the two wind fields at the base of the trough (circled in red). Note your highest wind speeds (purple) downstream of the trough axis. Those speeds have notably increased since two hours ago. The fuse it lit, folks.

Any reason to think it will close off earlier than modeled based in this? It seemed it took forever to do so on all the models till after it was too late

Yes, for this reason (in my opinion). The trough is maturing faster than modeled, again, in my opinion.

by **heehaw453** Fri Jan 28, 2022 3:31 pm

He's 100% right, but if you see guidance not back off the late close at 00Z ignore that at your own disappointment. I saw him fiercely defend his forecast during Juno as it was clear as day it was too far east for NJ.

Models in general for me are just noise. Guidance will shift left or right up until the storm starts. I am not of the habit to change a forecast with each model suite unless there are wholesale changes.
— NY NJ PA Weather (@nynjpaweather) January 28, 2022

by **Grselig** Fri Jan 28, 2022 3:31 pm

rb924119 wrote:
lglickman1 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Phasing process underway, as seen by the merger of the two wind fields at the base of the trough (circled in red). Note your highest wind speeds (purple) downstream of the trough axis. Those speeds have notably increased since two hours ago. The fuse it lit, folks.

Any reason to think it will close off earlier than modeled based in this? It seemed it took forever to do so on all the models till after it was too late

Yes, for this reason (in my opinion). The trough is maturing faster than modeled, again, in my opinion.

RB. Thanks. Do you realize how many people are hanging onto every one of your statements. Rooting big time for early close off

by DWay Fri Jan 28, 2022 3:33 pm

Are thing looking worse for Philly area. Everyone was so hyped yesterday lol. Today not so much.

by **Grselig** Fri Jan 28, 2022 3:34 pm

heehaw453 wrote:He's 100% right, but if you see guidance not back off the late close at 00Z ignore that at your own disappointment. I saw him fiercely defend his forecast during Juno as it was clear as day it was too far east for NJ.

Models in general for me are just noise. Guidance will shift left or right up until the storm starts. I am not of the habit to change a forecast with each model suite unless there are wholesale changes.
— NY NJ PA Weather (@nynjpaweather) January 28, 2022

Ive seem him cling onto initial forecasts (snow and hurricanes) more than once when he clearly was not correct

by **mikeypizano** Fri Jan 28, 2022 3:34 pm

This storm is nerve wracking as hell!

by **aiannone** Fri Jan 28, 2022 3:53 pm

Upton Bumped up totals

Blizzard Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
331 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

CTZ008-012-NYZ079-081-291000-
/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.220129T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Northern New London-Southern New London-Northeast Suffolk-
Southeast Suffolk-
331 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations
of 13 to 17 inches. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Northern New London and Southern New
London Counties. In New York, Southeast Suffolk and Northeast
Suffolk Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. Strong
winds could cause tree damage.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Blizzard conditions are expected Saturday
morning into early Saturday afternoon. White out conditions are
likely at times.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:05 pm

Days and hours of tracking - and I've literally sweated through 10 t shirts - have brought us to a point where much uncertainty still lies. The trough as observed looks better than modeled. The surface low as observed looks better than modeled. Yet, our models believe the area will be scraped, outside of Jersey Shore and Long Island, with fairly limited impact compared to what models were showing yesterday.

I am going to trust my instincts here and go by what many have been saying: models are struggling and current observations are painting a more impactful storm. This is my final call snow map.

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 20 01-28-Final-Call

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 20 01-28-Final-Call

Main differences from my 1st call:
*18"+ zone shrunk
*12-18" zone expanded more west thru Long Island and down the Jersey Shore
*6-12 instead of 8-12 to account for potential cut-off's WNW of heaviest snow axis

Speaking, below is a look at where the EURO and NAM show 700mb lift and heavier snow rates.

The EURO keeps the best lift across east end of LI into southeastern New England.

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 20 Ecmwf_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_9

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 20 Ecmwf_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_9

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 20 Ecmwf_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_10

The NAM is quite similar, as the 700mb low passes east of Long Island.

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 20 Namconus_z700_vort_neus_24

A very difficult forecast that is guaranteed to bust in some places. We are past the point of model watching and in nowcast mode. However, I will be curious to see the 00z NAM tonight and see if it latches onto a last minute west trend, as is my belief.

by **aiannone** Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:19 pm

NWS Bumped Slightly West

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 20 Stormt14

by **sroc4** Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:26 pm

Worried this may be our track.

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 20 D51bcf10

by **aiannone** Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:29 pm

sroc4 wrote:Worried this may be our track.

RGEM would agree with you...

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 20 27283410

by **lglickman1** Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:30 pm

aiannone wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Worried this may be our track.

RGEM would agree with you...

Why would it hook like that?

by richb521 Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:31 pm

sroc4 wrote:Worried this may be our track.

What would pull the storm from almost straight northward to northeast like that?

by **jmanley32** Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:40 pm

Well I am hopeful the NWS snowmap is right, 8-12 at this point would be great, honestly around a foot is what i was always expecting. Everything else was wishful thinking, even beantown isnt getting no 40 inches looks more like 20. Frank you said you would have a map of your expectations of the winds, I still think they will have big impacts are you going to give your analysis of this at least?

by **jmanley32** Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:44 pm

richb521 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Worried this may be our track.

What would pull the storm from almost straight northward to northeast like that?

look at the way the isobars point due north then NE, thats why I believe. That track would really have almost no impacts.

by **jmanley32** Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:46 pm

aiannone wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Worried this may be our track.

RGEM would agree with you...

oy, not a good look, lets hope for real time changes west, but the easterm lie cannot be completely denied. I think rb jumped ship cuz he was on that it would go west now not looking so likely.

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:51 pm

by **jmanley32** Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:54 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:

soul you always find such positive hopeful posts, thats why your going into meterology : ) Lets hope this bodes well because that's a big difference west.

by **Grselig** Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:58 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
soul you always find such positive hopeful posts, thats why your going into meterology : ) Lets hope this bodes well because that's a big difference west.

This observation also seems consistent with RB’s sentiments to watch what is happening now. At least hoping this is good. We shall see.

by **jmanley32** Fri Jan 28, 2022 5:00 pm

Grselig wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
soul you always find such positive hopeful posts, thats why your going into meterology : ) Lets hope this bodes well because that's a big difference west.

This observation also seems consistent with RB’s sentiments to watch what is happening now. At least hoping this is good. We shall see.

yeah but if this follows those isobars on the map posted above it may not matter and still take a far right.

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