SNOW MAPS: January 28th-29th 2022

Good morning folks Please refrain from commenting directly on the snow map in this thread.  We will use this thread to simply post any snow map that anyone is willing to put together so they do not get lost in the discussion thread.  I will post it in the other thread as well and if anyone wants to critique fire away.  Im open for the good and the bad about it.  Just be respectful.  I have to say this is one of the more challenging ones I've put together.  

My method.  I looked at 7 different models including global operationals, their ensembles, as well as several short range hi res models.  I looked at all of their 500mb and surface tracks, then looked at all the total QPF maps and created my zones.  I then averaged the western and eastern parts of each individual zones QPF taking 4 numbers from each model within a given zone(an eastern number and western number).  I averaged the 4 values for each model first, and then took that avg for all 7 models to get my overall avg for a particular zone.  I then looked at temp profiles to account for ratios and sprinkled in a little intuition and that's how I came up with my totals.  Obv there is a high degree of uncertainty as if the GFS an the GEFS are correct, and their are a few others that are really east with this sucker, the overall QPF will drop off significantly.  If I removed the GFS and its ens from the equation all other models have a really nice event for all.  Let's see what today brings.  

Thanks Scott. I think if I can hit your +4/8" of your 8-12", then I'll be soooo happy.

And I hope this counts as posting a snow call map, here is the Philly/Mt Holly 1st Call Map for the southern portions of the board. I think again, if you hit that +/- 4-8" MOE on it, it has a good shot to verify! Sounds crazy, but yeah, I guess there really is THAT much uncertainty. That is actually crazy!

1st call map. May need to have two more maps after this. One in the morning and another tomorrow night. I normally like to stick to two, but you know, complicated storm and all.

In tomorrow's update I'll get into specifics with start time, end time, wind potential, heaviest banding, etc. etc.

I am happy with that frank so far

What about winds? Thanks!

Nice map Frank

Map based on where things stand looks good to me!

Westward ho!

Any new snow map? From what I'm reading in the other posts, things have changed.

Like it or leave it my final call.  Work prevents me from participating in the discussion throughout the day with the exception of the pop in comments.  Today will likely be no different.  I know we arent quite finished yet, but I must say the hunt of this storm has been really exciting.  The ups and downs have been unreal.  I think there is obviously a consensus that has been reached for the most part with perhaps some of the finer details still yet to come.  

Yes there were several jumpers a day or two ago but I think fortunately the main core of us were able to provide enough life preservers to save the snow weenie lives of most of you.  Climb back aboard and get yourself next to the fire, and have yourselves a hot tottie and lets enjoy whatever white gold mother nature has in store for us.   

That’s a beautiful map if I say

Balls to the Wall here !!!

amugs wrote:

so wheres my blizzard warning then hmm? He is a good met so.

amugs wrote:Balls to the Wall here !!!

thats the craziest map ive seen yet, who in the world is this and does it have merit?

Days and hours of tracking - and I've literally sweated through 10 t shirts - have brought us to a point where much uncertainty still lies. The trough as observed looks better than modeled. The surface low as observed looks better than modeled. Yet, our models believe the area will be scraped, outside of Jersey Shore and Long Island, with fairly limited impact compared to what models were showing yesterday.

I am going to trust my instincts here and go by what many have been saying: models are struggling and current observations are painting a more impactful storm. This is my final call snow map.



Main differences from my 1st call:
*18"+ zone shrunk
*12-18" zone expanded more west thru Long Island and down the Jersey Shore
*6-12 instead of 8-12 to account for potential cut-off's WNW of heaviest snow axis

Speaking, below is a look at where the EURO and NAM show 700mb lift and heavier snow rates.

The EURO keeps the best lift across east end of LI into southeastern New England.





The NAM is quite similar, as the 700mb low passes east of Long Island.



A very difficult forecast that is guaranteed to bust in some places. We are past the point of model watching and in nowcast mode. However, I will be curious to see the 00z NAM tonight and see if it latches onto a last minute west trend, as is my belief.

NWS Bumped Slightly West

Just doing some quick and dirty verification of our forecast maps for our board area, and if I might offer some constructive criticism, both Scott’s (sroc) and Frank’s final forecast maps were nearly perfect from what I can tell. However, it looks to me like Scott was a little too bullish on the westward expanse of the banding, and Frank was a little two generous into NEPA and the Catskills region. But your second call map was dead nuts man. The gradient in this storm were really tough, especially for NYC proper, and I think you both did incredibly well there.

In retrospect, had I made a map, it would have been too generous to the west, as I was thinking that the main band that setup along coastal NJ would be another 30 miles west (hence my liking of the I-95 corridor). So, I would have busted there, for sure. That said, I think the overall idea of a further west solution versus what guidance was indicating (even while the event was unfolding) proved to have merit, so I’m ok with that.

All in all, I think we did a really fantastic job as a group with this event, and as the first system that I could spend ANY time analyzing for this season, I couldn’t have asked for a better one. Great job, everybody, and for those of you who are newcomers, welcome aboard!! Onto the next one!!

rb924119 wrote:Just doing some quick and dirty verification of our forecast maps for our board area, and if I might offer some constructive criticism, both Scott’s (sroc) and Frank’s final forecast maps were nearly perfect from what I can tell. However, it looks to me like Scott was a little too bullish on the westward expanse of the banding, and Frank was a little two generous into NEPA and the Catskills region. But your second call map was dead nuts man. The gradient in this storm were really tough, especially for NYC proper, and I think you both did incredibly well there.

In retrospect, had I made a map, it would have been too generous to the west, as I was thinking that the main band that setup along coastal NJ would be another 30 miles west (hence my liking of the I-95 corridor). So, I would have busted there, for sure. That said, I think the overall idea of a further west solution versus what guidance was indicating (even while the event was unfolding) proved to have merit, so I’m ok with that.

All in all, I think we did a really fantastic job as a group with this event, and as the first system that I could spend ANY time analyzing for this season, I couldn’t have asked for a better one. Great job, everybody, and for those of you who are newcomers, welcome aboard!! Onto the next one!!

great job done by all!! What a great group!!
So RB when do you think our next one is going to be.

You all did an amazing job. And this storm was NOT EASY! No consensus even as the storm was beginning. Took real knowledge and expertise to do this one.

Dream team right here, forget the networks! Great job everyone, considering how difficult this was, your analyses were right on!

Great job by all! what a fun storm!

The bad: 12-18 zone in NJ did not expand west enough, could have angled the 6-12 better to put Philly Metro and parts of CNJ in it

I'll give myself a B+ with this. Tough storm to forecast honestly. When I released this map the NAM and GFS were still showing the heaviest snows offshore, and I ended up going with my gut and listening to other pro's such as Ray.

Thanks Frank, rb, Heehaw and everyone else for their time and effort in forecasting this tricky storm!