Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
+37
emokid51783
deadrabbit79
oldtimer
gigs68
mikeypizano
devsman
bobjohnsonforthehall
dphyatt
aiannone
SNOW MAN
Radz
Math23x7
Fededle22
Dunnzoo
RJB8525
docstox12
nutleyblizzard
SoulSingMG
essexcountypete
track17
dsix85
Grselig
rb924119
CPcantmeasuresnow
algae888
hyde345
billg315
skinsfan1177
jrollins628
amugs
jmanley32
jake732
Armando Salvadore
weatherwatchermom
sroc4
Snow88
Frank_Wx
41 posters
Page 1 of 26
Page 1 of 26 • 1, 2, 3 ... 13 ... 26
Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
Good Morning,
Happy Game Day! I would love to see the Falcons win this one, but Tom Brady is quite the machine so I have a feeling it'll go to the Patriots. Should be a good game, enjoy!
So I had this elaborate write-up outlining Thursday's storm potential, but I accidentally closed my Chrome and lost the content. I'll keep this brief.
The EURO shows a weak low pressure well south of Long Island on Thursday morning. The differences between the EURO and GFS at the 500mb level is pretty widespread. As you see on these maps, the EURO involves a piece of energy that broke off the Polar Vortex and tries to phase it with the southern energy. However, the western ridge is modeled to collapse so the trough axis gets shunted east and deters amplification.
The GFS on the other hand has an all-out snowstorm. A Mothrazilla. This model has much stronger Pacific energy entering the country which keeps heights along the east coast higher compared to the EURO. The Baroclinic Zone on the GFS is already over our area on Wednesday, while on the EURO it's well south because the Pacific energy is too weak in the center of the country. There is also a front coming through on Wednesday which is bringing us rain. A weaker front would help keep the Baroclinic Zone over our area, as opposed to sending it south and east of us.
Moral of the story is, sampling of this Pacific energy will not be understood on the models until Tuesday. The GFS actually shows 2 separate pieces of Pacific energy which kinda feed off each other in developing a weak low off our area. There's a few combinations we can actually get it to snow pretty significantly here, which is pretty good because normally there is just one scenario. We can either rely on the various vorts coming out of the Pacific, or perhaps involve the Polar energy in some capacity.
I think we need to give this another 48 hours so we can see if models come to consensus on how they want to handle the 500mb level. Timing would be early Thursday morning. Potential is there for 6"+, but the lack of blocking and collapsing western ridge are large enough risks to not make this storm happen at all.
Happy Game Day! I would love to see the Falcons win this one, but Tom Brady is quite the machine so I have a feeling it'll go to the Patriots. Should be a good game, enjoy!
So I had this elaborate write-up outlining Thursday's storm potential, but I accidentally closed my Chrome and lost the content. I'll keep this brief.
The EURO shows a weak low pressure well south of Long Island on Thursday morning. The differences between the EURO and GFS at the 500mb level is pretty widespread. As you see on these maps, the EURO involves a piece of energy that broke off the Polar Vortex and tries to phase it with the southern energy. However, the western ridge is modeled to collapse so the trough axis gets shunted east and deters amplification.
The GFS on the other hand has an all-out snowstorm. A Mothrazilla. This model has much stronger Pacific energy entering the country which keeps heights along the east coast higher compared to the EURO. The Baroclinic Zone on the GFS is already over our area on Wednesday, while on the EURO it's well south because the Pacific energy is too weak in the center of the country. There is also a front coming through on Wednesday which is bringing us rain. A weaker front would help keep the Baroclinic Zone over our area, as opposed to sending it south and east of us.
Moral of the story is, sampling of this Pacific energy will not be understood on the models until Tuesday. The GFS actually shows 2 separate pieces of Pacific energy which kinda feed off each other in developing a weak low off our area. There's a few combinations we can actually get it to snow pretty significantly here, which is pretty good because normally there is just one scenario. We can either rely on the various vorts coming out of the Pacific, or perhaps involve the Polar energy in some capacity.
I think we need to give this another 48 hours so we can see if models come to consensus on how they want to handle the 500mb level. Timing would be early Thursday morning. Potential is there for 6"+, but the lack of blocking and collapsing western ridge are large enough risks to not make this storm happen at all.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
Nice writeup but the PNA is rising so there should be a nice ridge in the west.
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2193
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 35
Location : Brooklyn, NY
Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
Perfectly stated
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8325
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
Thank you Frank for the write up...one can only hope for a bit of good weather news!! I am sorry to hear your first draft was lost I hope you have a wonderful Sunday and here's to good sampling on Tuesday!!
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 3708
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 60
Location : Hazlet Township, NJ
Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
Awesome post Frank, always right on the money when it comes to these systems. This could work, one major thing that we'll at least have is a fresh injection behind Wednesday's polar s/w event. Also, 50's tuesday and maybe touching 60 wednesday? Well, we'll see! Anyway, we've seen this before with that ridge collapsing, and also, we're going to be coming off a jet extension. So, basically, it comes down to timing as well. Do we get enough of a window to allow heights build so we can get some digging and rounding the bend? I like the chance at least!
Armando Salvadore- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 171
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2016-12-23
Location : Springfield, NJ
Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
Now that is a favorable upper level jet streak! Trended stronger compared to 6z. Now, i know it's still Sunday and early, but this is actually not in a 10 day timeframe. Ridge axis is actually better too. We may just get the perfect timing.
Armando Salvadore- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 171
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2016-12-23
Location : Springfield, NJ
Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
Heights flatten out west and the Pacific energy is less potent on the 12z GFS. Still manages 3-5" this run.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
Snow88 wrote:Nice writeup but the PNA is rising so there should be a nice ridge in the west.
It looks like crap on today's GFS.
The CMC/UKMET also show a very weak wave.
So...keep your hope DOWN.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
been the state of most of this winter i think.Frank_Wx wrote:Snow88 wrote:Nice writeup but the PNA is rising so there should be a nice ridge in the west.
It looks like crap on today's GFS.
The CMC/UKMET also show a very weak wave.
So...keep your hope DOWN.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20479
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
GFS Ensembles look really good. Must be some heavy hitters.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
Thank for teh write up Frank and we shall see - wish this was 24hrs out instead of 100 hours.
GEFS are harping on the multiple wave train so we shall see. I will get excited come Tuesday afternoon 12z and then more 0Z night.
GEFS are harping on the multiple wave train so we shall see. I will get excited come Tuesday afternoon 12z and then more 0Z night.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15084
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
Frank_Wx wrote:GFS Ensembles look really good. Must be some heavy hitters.
This looks pretty darn good for HR 90
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8325
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
Need that cutter storm to be weaker so we dont push the baroclinic zone to far s & e or else you know the ramifications of this board.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15084
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
Frank_Wx wrote:Snow88 wrote:Nice writeup but the PNA is rising so there should be a nice ridge in the west.
It looks like crap on today's GFS.
The CMC/UKMET also show a very weak wave.
So...keep your hope DOWN.
Reminds me of the anafrontal wave last February. It kept on trending stronger as we got closer.
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2193
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 35
Location : Brooklyn, NY
Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
hello.....any update on the euro?? doesnt sound to good from the silence?
Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
It's still there just weeker!!!!
jrollins628- Posts : 38
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2016-10-05
Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
Keep expectations in check 1-2/ 2--4 type
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 4485
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 46
Location : Point Pleasant Boro
Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
Skins brother I hope you enjoy the Super Bowl. My expectations are if we get 1-3" or 2-4" no thank you. By the way NWS has our area for 45 and rain next weekend
Guest- Guest
Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
Frank's "Snow Confidence Level" at the moment, does not inspire confidence in this storm.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 4434
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ
Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
HUMINA HUMINA - PLEASE COME TO FRUITION MADONNE!!
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15084
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15084
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
STUPID GFS SUCKS YOU RIGHT BACK IN WITH THIS 0Z RUN!!
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15084
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
Arctic air drops in behind it
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15084
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
Let us know about the CMC
jrollins628- Posts : 38
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2016-10-05
Page 1 of 26 • 1, 2, 3 ... 13 ... 26
Page 1 of 26
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
|
|