February 15-16, 2016 OBS & Final Call
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February 15-16, 2016 OBS & Final Call
I hope everyone had a wonderful V-Day today. The work week is going to start off awful with snow, ice, and rain.
My biggest change from my 1st call to the final is cutting down on snow amounts in PA. Otherwise, it is relatively the same. The toughest part of the forecast is figuring out how much ice may accumulate. If the changeover is longer than expected, potentially due to the stubborn cold air, then we will see more ice accumulate in parts of interior and northern NJ. I also thing the flooding could be bad for some in NNJ and eastern PA. The ground is frozen so it will not absorb water as easily. Start and end times are posted on the map in the upper right.
The fun begins again post February 22nd. See long range thread for more details.
Best,
Frank
My biggest change from my 1st call to the final is cutting down on snow amounts in PA. Otherwise, it is relatively the same. The toughest part of the forecast is figuring out how much ice may accumulate. If the changeover is longer than expected, potentially due to the stubborn cold air, then we will see more ice accumulate in parts of interior and northern NJ. I also thing the flooding could be bad for some in NNJ and eastern PA. The ground is frozen so it will not absorb water as easily. Start and end times are posted on the map in the upper right.
The fun begins again post February 22nd. See long range thread for more details.
Best,
Frank
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Re: February 15-16, 2016 OBS & Final Call
Radar looking healthy
snow247- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: February 15-16, 2016 OBS & Final Call
NAM holding serve. 2"-4" for most, LI less.
snow247- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: February 15-16, 2016 OBS & Final Call
Got some light snow falling down here already. 18* shame it will be close to 60 with rain tomorrow!
SkiSeadooJoe- Posts : 88
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Re: February 15-16, 2016 OBS & Final Call
Light snow here
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 15-16, 2016 OBS & Final Call
Yep. Light snow here as well
Teetghhuhnbhj- Posts : 19
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Re: February 15-16, 2016 OBS & Final Call
Light snow will fall from squalls but the main action is still well south of the area. The air is very dry so we may battle some virga.
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Re: February 15-16, 2016 OBS & Final Call
14 Degrees
Real Feel 7
Light snow
Real Feel 7
Light snow
Taffy- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: February 15-16, 2016 OBS & Final Call
Light snow here as well. The main storm is not supposed to get here until 3pm.... right?
Fededle22- Posts : 169
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Re: February 15-16, 2016 OBS & Final Call
Light snow 10*
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: February 15-16, 2016 OBS & Final Call
Snowing, 10*F
snow247- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: February 15-16, 2016 OBS & Final Call
When is the ice going to hit. Don't mind driving in snow but ice is a different story
Grselig- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 15-16, 2016 OBS & Final Call
Flurries at 13*
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: February 15-16, 2016 OBS & Final Call
Light snow shower 20*
feels like a heat wave
feels like a heat wave
Dtone- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: February 15-16, 2016 OBS & Final Call
Grselig wrote:When is the ice going to hit. Don't mind driving in snow but ice is a different story
From JB
JB-
February 15 09:35 AM
A winter storm warning has been issued around DC as the snow is coming in thickly with the wave I am counting on to leave a boundary behind that will have a tough time getting into the areas getting what is a snowstorm today, I like 3-6 in DC fading to 1-3 around NYC, but am getting more concerned this just comes up the I-95 corridor and carries the 3-6 into NYC, Amazing that was the first forecast there and what has changing it got me? Its back west of that where the snow is overforecasted, but the battle now becomes is it a big ice storm
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Mugs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: February 15-16, 2016 OBS & Final Call
about 10pm you could stay all frozen until second wave hits tomorrow. looks like first wave 1pm til 1am then a lot of our area dry slotted until around noon tomorrow. then a period of heavy rain tomorrow after noon with cold front...Grselig wrote:When is the ice going to hit. Don't mind driving in snow but ice is a different story
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: February 15-16, 2016 OBS & Final Call
12K NAM
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: February 15-16, 2016 OBS & Final Call
18* flurries on and off
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 15-16, 2016 OBS & Final Call
do not be fooled 35* and rain tonight with such a cold ground will be more like frz rain for most of us. will have to wait to sunrise tomorrow to get out of the ice threat even with temps above frz.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: February 15-16, 2016 OBS & Final Call
Latest HRRR has a prettyt decent front end thump even on LI esp the N shore. About 5 hrs worth. Cold air is always diff to scour out. Freezing rain will def be an issue for many, so everyone please be careful driving later.
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: February 15-16, 2016 OBS & Final Call
Wow, just saw reports of over 7 inches at my old house in southern MD. Good storm down there!
Biggin23- Posts : 259
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Re: February 15-16, 2016 OBS & Final Call
Snow becoming more moderate here
Biggin23- Posts : 259
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Re: February 15-16, 2016 OBS & Final Call
Been flurrying since 9
snow247- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: February 15-16, 2016 OBS & Final Call
I'm holding steady at 14* here... Good.
snow247- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: February 15-16, 2016 OBS & Final Call
13.1 flurrying very lightly for the last half hour
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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